GG’s latest recruit Matthew Sutcliffe gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of last weekend’s action, before giving his fancies for the upcoming action on Friday and Saturday.
Published: 2.48pm 12th October (Odds correct at time of publication)
Last Week’s Pointers
Saturday 13:40 Redcar: MICKLEY (3rd/13) Soldier’s Call x Parle Moi (Giant’s Causeway) – Trainer: Edward Bethell.
MICKLEY was a well backed favourite on debut at Newcastle last month but his inexperience got the better of him. He was easy to back at Redcar last weekend after that, but showed much more this time around. Covered up once more, he travelled well behind the main pack up the middle, but looked a tad lonely once the gap opened up. That said, he picked up strongly and ran on well, just failing to reel in the two who were prominent and raced up the rail, a combination that often pays dividends at Redcar. His effort can be marked up plenty, and stepping up in trip looks the right way to go both visually and judged on his pedigree. Although the turf season is drawing to a close, I think he’s capable of picking up a nursery on the all-weather during the winter and would wait until he qualifies for one before backing him.
14:05 Newmarket: ELDERFLOWER (6th/22) Ten Sovereigns x Almoner (Oasis Dream) – Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam.
ELDERFLOWER was a 50,000gns purchase last October, and showed plenty of promise on her debut in the ever-competitive Newmarket Tattersalls Auction Stakes when a staying on 6th. Nothing laid a glove on the easy four length winner, but Elderflower caught the eye staying on down the outside from miles back, finishing just three lengths behind the 2nd. That was a promising debut on a tricky enough track and given how well Ten Sovereigns’ progeny have been coming on from their debuts, she’ll be of note next time out.
14:15 Fontwell: HILLTOWN (3rd/8) Battle Of Marengo x California Rose (Oratorio) – Trainer: Seamus Mullins.
HILLTOWN improved for the step up to three miles in the Spring and that form was given a boost by the 16L 4th later on. He made a sufficient enough reappearance on Saturday, shaping very much like coming on for the run. He didn’t travel with much fluency and dropped to the rear when the pace lifted, but he stayed on strongly enough to suggest his current mark isn’t beyond him, and with the run behind him he’s worth keeping onside next time out. He’s only a five year old so has plenty of time to improve over hurdles, but given he’s a P2P winner and related to a chase/point winner, I wouldn’t be shocked if they were to go over fences at some point this season.
15:00 Ascot: VADREAM (5th/10) Brazen Beau x Her Honour (Shamardal) – Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
VADREAM is very much known for his soft ground exploits, but he recorded his best effort yet on a quicker surface last weekend and ran to only 2lbs below his peak RPR which came on soft ground when winning the Howden Palace House Stakes on soft in May, beating the subsequent Nunthorpe winner Live In The Dream. He travelled ominously in behind the leaders but had to angle out wide for a run when not getting the initial gap, and seemed to weaken once away from the action. That was his first run from off a break and he’s never gone particularly well when fresh, so there’s every reason to mark up the run. If that ground comes up soft on Champions Day, then the 25/1 currently on offer for the Sprint Stakes could look fairly lenient in hindsight. There’s no doubt this will have been his target having contested the last two renewals, beaten three lengths each time, and he recorded a 24lbs lower RPR in the same prep run for the race on more favourable ground last year, and a 1lbs lower RPR despite winning the Bengough in 2021 en-route to Champions Day.
15:15 Newmarket: HEREDIA (3rd/8) Dark Angel x Nakuti (Mastercraftsman) – Trainer: Richard Hannon.
The classy Inspiral produced a career best on RPR’s to take the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes, 4lbs clear of any other RPR produced by a winner of the race in the last ten renewals. HEREDIA also produced a career best and continued her upward trajectory having just been chinned for 2nd by the French raider. Hannon’s filly has improved plenty this season, finally showing us what she’s capable of having been somewhat disappointing after her win in the Sandringham last year. She picked up well having raced in the rear, and while Inspiral already had flow, Heredia made speedy inroads of her own through the race and might be overlooked if connections stick with her in G1 company. I’d be very keen on her if she goes to the Breeders’ Cup, as the tight turns will play to her speedy qualities.
15:25 Fontwell: BENTLEY’S RETURN (3rd/8) Mahler x Deianira (King’s Theatre) – Trainer: Chris Gordon.
BENTLEY’S RETURN shaped far better than his eventual 14L defeat suggested on hurdles debut at Fontwell. He raced a tad keenly on his first run in 163 days, but this big, strapping future chaser jumped foot-perfect throughout, until making a horrendous mistake at the 7th, nearly wiping out the hurdle and unseating Rex Dingle. He was lit up the whole way afterwards, but regathered his stride well and continued to jump fluently. He was still there pitching in on the turn for home, but couldn’t quite match the speed of the eventual 1st and 2nd. He was tenderly handled once the momentum had gone, and will be of larger interest on a galloping track. I’ve a suspicion they’ll mind him for handicaps now as his mark will undoubtedly underestimate his talents, but he’s a project worth putting your patience in.
15:35 Ascot: PEARLE D’OR (3rd/17) Starspangledbanner x Thoughtless Moment (Pivotal) Trainer: David O’Meara.
A 2lbs rise will surely underestimate the level of improvement David O’Meara will continue to bring out of PEARL D’OR. It was evident that those who raced on the nearside were favoured in the Howden Handicap, so Pearle D’Or’s effort up the centre can be marked up plenty. He broke away from his far side group and probably got lonely in the closing stages, though still kept on well enough. Punters who supported him can feel somewhat unlucky too, given he was drawn in 9, and stalls 13,11 and 12 had all finished strongly up the nearside. Had Crowley gone left out of the stalls, I’ve no doubt Pearle D’Or would’ve won the race. We might not see him again this season, as O’Meara will surely mind his mark for some of the top handicaps at Ascot next season. Given he’s a heavy ground winner, stays on over 7F and is related to three winners over a mile, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him line up in the Lincoln Handicap next season.
16:00 Fontwell: LE PATRON (1st/4) Balko x La Loute (Saint Des Saints) – Trainer: Gary Moore.
One of the best parts of the jumps’ season is seeing last season’s hurdlers switching codes to fences. Horses can improve rapidly for a fence, and one who made that switch effortlessly was LE PATRON. By Balko out of a Saint Des Saints mare who’s produced three other winning chasers, he is certainly bred for the larger obstacles and put in an exemplary performance. A big grey with a high knee action, the switch to soft ground might counteract the inevitable rise from the handicapper as he raced exclusively on softer going in France as a 4yo. While he might not be much of a price next time out, I expect we’ll see him in the 2m 3 1/2F C3 Chase Handicap at Plumpton on the 23rd October, which Gary Moore won last season with a novice chaser.
Sunday 16:45 Uttoxeter: Bob Bank (4th/10) Soldier Of Fortune x Accardi (Great Palm) – Trainer: Christian Williams.
I think it’s fair to say that BOB BANK – a tall, scopey son of Soldier Of Fortune was never going to ply his trade in bumpers and two mile hurdles, which he was consigned to last season. As a result of such, he made his handicap/chase debut off a near basement mark of 80, and the shrewd Christian Williams upped him a whole mile for it. He was a big market drifter before the off having opened gone from 8s to 20s (30s on the exchange), so punters likely knew their fate. However, he jumped and travelled with plenty of enthusiasm, only weakening three out under tender enough handling. He didn’t look fit enough to my eye and will certainly come on for the run. From the family of ’09 RSA winner Cooldine, it’s highly likely that a mark of 80 will severely underestimate this gelding and he’s an absolute must for your trackers, though the market will likely be telling as to when he’s ready to strike.
Weekend Punts
Friday 1:50 Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo)
ALASKAN GOLD 0.5pt EW (4 places) at 33/1 generally
I had hoped ALASKAN GOLD would turn up here, though I was more assured he’d take up his entry over 6F in the Rockingham at York on Saturday. I’m glad they’ve gone down the 5F route with him up in grade (despite there being less prize money than the Rockingham), and I certainly didn’t think he’d be 33/1 if turning up here. Six of the last ten winners of this race had previously raced over 6F in the season, and Burke’s son of Kodiac looks sure to suit this drop to 5F. He shaped that way on debut behind subsequent 2x G1 winner Vandeek, and again when 3rd in a competitive maiden at Goodwood, where he was a length behind the subsequent Mill Reef winner Array. He eventually broke his duck at Carlisle in August, winning cosier than the distance suggests having raced wide and keen throughout, and this test of speed on a stiff track will play to his strengths.
Friday 2:10 Chepstow Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
MULLINAREE 1pt Win at 9/1 bet365, 8/1 generally
The Persian War has long signalled the ‘official’ beginning of the National Hunt season, and it is often littered with potential stars. However, it’s not always the case that the horse with the most significant amount of potential improvement wins the race. Accidental Rebel rose through the handicapping ranks last summer, going from a mark of 107 to 122 before taking the Grade Two contest. In 2021, Camprond was twice a beaten favourite in handicaps off 125 and 134 before beating Luttrell Lad five lengths. The 2016 winner El Bandit had also spent the spring in maidens/ novices, winning a Warwick handicap off 112 on his penultimate start before taking the Persian War. So it can pay to be on the side of those fit from a spring-autumn campaign, as opposed to the likes of Captain Teague, who although undoubtedly has the most potential in comparison to some of the others, might just falter to some of the fitter competitors.
One who will likely be overpriced on the basis of perceived lesser potential is Milton Harris’ MULLINAREE. The Kayf Tara gelding was beaten in three bumpers for John Walsh in Ireland, and Milton Harris failed to get a win out of him in his first five runs for the yard throughout the winter. However, once equipped with a hood along with the initial tongue tie, Mullinaree has won five on the bounce under Bradley Harris, climbing only 16lbs in the process. Although his jumping isn’t the most fluent at times, he clearly has a big engine and a game attitude for hurdling, with his wins coming under a variety of different conditions; heavy-good ground over 2m3f, on left handed, right handed, sharp, and galloping tracks. He’s clearly an uncomplicated horse on that basis, and will be a threat to all from the front. A rating of 128 doesn’t smack of ‘graded’ quality, but he gamely beat a subsequent winner last time out and likely hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. While he may not be the classiest of these in the future, history tells you in this contest you don’t have to be in order to be the best on the day and I’m sure he’ll be overpriced on that basis with conditions to suit.
Saturday 2:25 York Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)
GWEEDORE 1pt EW (6 places with bet365 & SkyBet) at 20/1
Form isn’t always the most concrete level of analysis when unscrambling this typically competitive Sprint handicap on the Knavesmire, so I’ll begin with a few external factors to hopefully piece together this Rubik’s cube of a race. There have been no winning favourites in the last ten renewals, with just one winning SP lower than 10/1. There’s not been a strong draw bias at York this season, though the far side has thrown up more results than normal, as they do tend to drift across to the nearside throughout the season, but in recent years it’s paid to be with those drawn low in this contest (4,7,6,5,5,2,15,1,9,4). Horses beaten in either the Ayr Gold/Silver Cup or the Ripon Cathedral Stakes last time out have succeeded in this race in recent years, and ideally you want something rated mid 90s, though not to be put off with a mark in the 100s with four recent winners having been rated 100+.
I initially had Albasheer on my shortlist earlier in the week as he ticks all those aforementioned factors, but he’s no appeal at 6/1 now and the impending rain forecast will be a hindrance. The gallant Summerghand ticks the boxes, but he’d require plenty of faith after that Ayr Gold Cup run last time out.
If GWEEDORE was drawn lower than 14, then he’d be the only other to tick all those boxes, but since he’s not drawn near an obvious amount of pace, he might get away with it should William Pyle track across to the middle/farside. Pyle and Gweedore have formed an excellent duo this season with their record reading 311973. I’d be happy enough to draw a line through his last run in listed company, and judge him on his 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup, where he was 3/4L behind Significantly and has a 1lbs swing (4lbs officially, but Sexton claims 3lbs) with him, despite being treble the price. It’s plausible to suggest Significantly was value for better than the margin that day and Gweedore was favoured by a prominent, drama-free ride, however that was Gweedore’s first run in his 51 race career over six furlongs, and yet recorded a personal best in terms of RPR’s (107), a pound higher than when winning at Newmarket in August. He’s generously priced in here as a mere reproduction of that run will see him bang there at a track where it’s paid to be prominent this season. He’s placed twice here already this year and will have no problem should the forecast rain hit, with eight of his twelve wins coming with ‘soft’ in the going.
Saturday 2:40 Newmarket Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
WONDERWALL 0.5pt EW at 66/1 (6 places with bet365), 50/1 (7 places with Paddy Power)
It requires some leap of faith to chance WONDERWALL after backing him at 3/1 in the column last time out at Chester, but I’m willing to forgive him for that effort as better was clearly expected and they’ve discarded the cheekpieces which I don’t think he enjoyed. Prior to that, I suggested he was chucked in off a mark of 79 and still stand by that claim, so given he’s 2lbs lower and Georgia Dobie claims a further 3lbs, I cannot leave him now he’s away from topweight, and carrying bottom weight in a race that tends to favour those featherweights. He’s clearly been aimed at a staying pot like this, and I’m surprised he’s managed to sneak in off a mark as low as 79, but this stiffer track than Chester will suit and the quicker ground shouldn’t be a hindrance.
Saturday 3:35 York Coral Racing Bet Bundles Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)
TITIAN 2pt WIN (NAP) at 14/1 generally
It may be a sign in itself that connections send TITIAN to this 0-105 contest worth 5k more than the 0-85 two races later over the same distance, a race that Titian won off a pound higher last year. That was the last time he got his head in front, and he tends to come good around this time of year with his record in September-October reading 1321153. Both his wins on turf have come over the 1m2f distance, so a return to this trip will suit having raced exclusively at a mile this season, and he caught the eye at Redcar last time out when staying on well down the outside from an unfavourable birth in 17.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
Friday 1:50 Newmarket Cornwallis Stakes: ALASKAN GOLD 0.5pt EW (4 places) at 33/1 generally
Friday 2:10 Chepstow Persian War Novices’ Hurdle: MULLINAREE 1pt Win at 9/1 bet365, 8/1 generally
Saturday 2:25 York Coral Sprint Trophy: GWEEDORE 1pt EW (6 places with bet365 & SkyBet) at 20/1
Saturday 2:40 Newmarket Cesarewitch Handicap: WONDERWALL 0.5pt EW at 66/1 (6 places with bet365), 50/1 (7 places with Paddy Power)
Saturday 3:35 York Coral Racing Bet Bundles Handicap: TITIAN 2pt WIN (NAP) at 14/1 generally
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