Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through his picks for the first two days of the Glorious Goodwood Festival.
Published: 16.34pm 31st July (Odds correct at time of publication)
Glorious Goodwood Punts
DAY ONE
13:40 Goodwood Coral Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Whenthedealinsdone 12/1 (generally) 1pt EW (4 places)
Roger Teal’s son of Dark Angel is winless in five starts this season, but as a result, he’s been dropped 8lbs by the handicapper back and is now back on his last winning mark. I’d be inclined to suggest that he’s had excuses the last twice, he possibly didn’t take to the first-time (discarded) blinkers last time out when down the field in a typically competitive handicap at Ascot, and reportedly didn’t handle the tight nature of Chester over 6F. Prior to those two runs he was only beaten 3/4L with the subsequent Epsom Dash winner Navello in behind, who is 6lbs worse off at the weights with ours though four points shorter in the market. Whenthedealinsdone will have no problem tackling the ground should it come up soft given he’s a multiple winner on going with soft in the description, and he’s a C&D winner on this card in 2021. Interestingly, only one horse has won this contest carrying 9-0 or over, which cancels out 8/14 runners here. Oisin Murphy is a pleasing jockey booking as he’s 2-1-0 with Roger Teal this season. The Teal yard also equip a tongue-tie in addition to the normal cheekpieces and given how he’s been finishing off his races this season, the aid may prove to be a wise decision that respect.
16:00 Goodwood World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Marbaan 12/1 (generally, 20/1 Bet365) 1pt EW (3 places)
I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of Charlie Fellowes’ Marbaan, who was a comfortable winner of the Vintage Stakes at this festival last year. His best form has come when either held up or covered up in the midst of the action. I think the Commonwealth Cup is easy enough to draw a line through on that evidence, as while he was ultimately outclassed by quicker/classier horses, I don’t think being prominent without any cover helped him at all. If you look back at his Salisbury 2nd in the Cathedral Stakes, he travelled well in behind Dilligent Harry with cover from Albasheer on his left, when he got daylight and angled for a run the response was initially immediate, but when Run To Freedom came alongside he quickened with him, just failing to get up. The aforementioned winner was subsequently 2nd in the July Cup Stakes, and the 3rd (Khaadem) subsequently taking the QEII Stakes. Interestingly, Kinross was five lengths behind Khaadem there and a shade behind Run To Freedom in the July Cup, so on those collateral pieces of form Marbaan looks overpriced given Kinross is the 11/8 favourite. Hopefully Jamie Spencer returns to the hold up tactics on Marbaan and with all of these having either made all/raced prominently last time out, he should get a nice pace to aim at. He’s 2-2 over seven furlongs outside of Group One level so the step back up on this tighter track should see him in a better light.
16:45 Goodwood Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Tashkhan 20/1 (generally) 0.5pt EW (3 places)
Tashkhan was a bet for the column in the Ascot Gold Cup before being withdrawn due to fast ground, so it only makes sense to play him again on his favoured soft ground, as he would’ve met several of these at Ascot on quicker going than ideal. Firstly, Courage Mon Ami could simply be John Gosden’s resurrection of Stradivarius and follow in that one’s footsteps in this contest, but he has to back up that impressive victory on entirely different ground which he isn’t bred to appreciate, so I do think he is worth taking on. Whether Tashkhan is classy enough to take this Group 1 remains to be seen, but I do think he rates an excellent EW chance. After two withdrawals on account on G/F ground, he was a solid 1/2L 3rd to the 117R Hamish over an inadequate 1m6f on G/S ground, so while his overall rating of 106 initially suggests he has a mountain to find with these protagonists, that run at York suggests he is still capable of running to the smart level of form he has in previous years. He was 2nd to Trueshan in the 2021 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day, finishing two lengths in front of Stradivarius there which was impressive form for a three year old. His forte is staying, he doesn’t necessarily have a smart change of foot but if James Doyle can get him an easy lead early on, he may be able to kick for home and test some of these unexposed stayers’ stamina. His record on ground containing ‘soft’ in the going reads 12112523343 as opposed to 087955354, and he hasn’t had as tough a season as some of these in here have.
DAY TWO
13:50 Goodwood Coral Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)
Struth 7/1 (generally) 1.5pt WIN
Mark Johnston was top trainer at the Goodwood Festival an excellent thirteen times, and made it no secret that he always specifically targeted this meeting. This will be his son Charlie’s first season at Goodwood with just his name on the license (though Mark will very much be working tirelessly behind the scenes) and he has already conjured up six wins and a further six places from eighteen runners at the Sussex based track. The Johnston yard have won this contest three times in the last ten years, twice with Joe Fanning on board which makes Struth appeal immediately. The talented Sir Ron Priestley was the last Johnston inmate who took this race, and his prep for it wasn’t dissimilar for that of Struth’s. The pair were both beaten in the King George V Stakes at Ascot, before going on to Haydock for a Class 2 Handicap in which SRP won, whereas Struth could only manage 3rd there last time out. That same handicap was also won by Making Miracles in 2018 who was also previously beaten in the King George V Stakes at Ascot, before going on to be beaten just 1 1/2L into 3rd at Goodwood thereafter. This has likely been the plan for Sruth for some time, and his 2L 2nd at Doncaster in June when giving subsequent G3 Bahrain Trophy 3rd Saint George 7lbs suggests he is still potentially well treated off 95.
14:25 Goodwood Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Sicilian Defense 28/1 (PP/Betfair) 0.5pt EW (4 places)
Fast Response tops the market here and will prove to be popular after her owners won it last year with the admirable Oscula. However, she hasn’t looked a natural over seven furlongs in her last two starts having done the rest of her racing over 5F/6F. Sicilian Defense is an interesting contender in here, and French trained horses have been profitable to follow in this contest in recent years. Francois Rohaut took the race three years on the trot from 2015-2017, Francis-Henri Graffard was a shade unlucky not to take this race with Samahram last season. Yann Barberot has had just five runners in the UK, winning once with Bouttemont at Newcastle on AW Championships Day. Sicilian Defense was a listed winner in May before finishing 4th in a Group 3, two lengths behind Charlie Hils’ Garrus who had previously the subsequent G3 Hackwood winner Commanche Falls earlier on in the season. On ratings, the daughter of Muhaarar has a bit to find with some of these, however back in May last year she was only beaten 2 1/2L in the French 1000 Guineas where she got no run and Ioritz Mendizabal was a passenger until half a furlong out, where she picked up nicely. She actually finished in front of Jumbly there who is the 11/2 second favourite in here. Several of these fillies and mares could struggle to handle going if it remains soft and given she’s a 3x winner on ground ranging from heavy-good/soft, she won’t mind what the weather does.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Goodwood Bets
DAY ONE
1.40 Goodwood – Whenthedealinsdone (12/1 generally) 1pt EW (4 places)
4.00 Goodwood – Marbaan (12/1 generally, 20/1 Bet365) 1pt EW (3 places)
4.45 Goodwood – Tashkhan (20/1 generally) 0.5pt E/W (3 places)
DAY TWO
1.50 Goodwood – Struth (7/1 generally) 1.5pt WIN
2.25 Goodwood – Sicilian Defense (28/1 PP/Betfair) 0.5pt EW (4 places)
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