Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through his tips for the final three days of the Glorious Goodwood Festival. He’s got some confident win tips for Thursday’s action, plus some big-odds E/W selections for the Friday card, before giving his final selection in the Stewards’ Cup on the Saturday.
Published: 9.20am 2nd August (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 11.50am 2nd August (Odds correct at time of publication)
Glorious Goodwood Punts
DAY THREE
1.50pm – Coral Kinscem Handicap (Class 2) (3yo)
HAVE SECRET (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W 4 places)
Have Secret has improved on RPR’s on every one of his career runs so far, and put in a good effort when 4th in the Golden Gates Stakes at Ascot. Despite running some quick early fractions, the gelding was still travelling nicely towards the head of affairs having raced midfield earlier on, and one he found daylight he kept on well only to be collared for 2nd/3rd by two who suitably raced in the rear. He still pulled four lengths clear of the 5th there, and it looks as if those first four are all still well handicapped. You only have to go back to Have Secret’s 4th in the London Gold Cup in May to have that suspicion confirmed, as he was beaten a length by Bertinelli who was subsequently beaten a length off 5lbs higher in the King George V Stakes won by Desert Hero, who was 2L behind Have Secret at Newbury. In 3rd and 2nd there was Exoplanet and Bold Act who reversed those placings in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at the Royal meeting, with the pair now rated 4lbs and 8lbs higher respectively. Evidently, Have Secret has been a victim of bumping into some well handicapped horses, and given the fact he’s just 3lbs higher than that Gold Cup run, he looks to be one himself. Richard Fahey’s record at Goodwood does somewhat tempers enthusiasm, but the softer ground should be in his favour given he dotted up by 3 1/4L on it at Nottingham last October.
3.00pm – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)
ARTISTIC STAR (6/1 generally – 1pt WIN)
Galileo has sired the winner of this contest on six occasions and he has two colts in here attempting to make that seven in Espionage and Artistic Star. The former was a comfortable winner of a listed contest last month on reappearance but it was by no means a strong contest and the runner up was subsequently beaten eighteen lengths in a Group Two at The Curragh. Artistic Star was a bet for me in the Derby and he ran better than his finishing position suggested, but the quick ground wasn’t to suit. The Derby form is working out better than many expected, Adelaide River who was behind Artistic Star has since finished 2nd in two G1’s, Waipiro (6th) subsequently won there G3 Hampton Court, The Foxes (4th) was an unlucky 2nd in the G1 Belmont Derby. Artistic Star then gave another respectable effort behind Derby runner up and King George 3rd King Of Steel in the G2 King Edward where again the quicker ground wouldn’t have been favourable. Now he drops back in grade once more on softer going, where he is 2-2 on, this looks like the perfect opportunity for him to showcase the talents he showed prior.
4.10pm – Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo)
LINCOLN LEGACY (17/2 generally – 1pt WIN)
A competitive nursery with the Johnston and Hannon yard having won the contest three times each in the last ten renewals. Charlie Johnston’s Lincoln Legacy was 3rd at Windsor last time out in a race marred by the lack of stalls so it may be best to tread carefully with that form, however there’s no denying she looks well treated off a mark of 77. A length ahead in 2nd in that race was Painite who was previously half a length behind the subsequent G2 winner Jason who’s now rated 109. The winner, Pink Satin, was then behind Lady Of Leisure and Shuwari in a novice race at Newbury, the former was previously 2nd to Fallen Angels who was subsequently 2nd to the latter mentioned Shuwari in the listed Star Stakes last weekend. Fourth in that Windsor race was Lady Wulfrun who was then a length 3rd to Soldier’s Gold who easily took a nursery off a mark of 80 at Ascot, now rated 90. Eight of the last ten winners have been drawn in stall six or lower, with three of them coming from stall four where Lincoln Legacy is drawn which can only bode well for her chances. The step up to seven furlongs looks to suit on pedigree given she’s by Footstepsinthesand out of a mare who stayed past a mile, and is related to several winners past a mile. William Buick takes the ride who has a 29% strike rate in non-handicaps at Goodwood the last five seasons.
DAY FOUR
1.50pm – Coral Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)
AGGAGIO (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W 4 places)
Aggagio only found the subsequent Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami too good when 2nd here in May, and perhaps found the ground too lively when carrying top weight over two miles here last time out in June. His course record reads 1112125 and his record on soft ground (including over hurdles) reads 171311121131, so returning to softer ground at a course he clearly loves should see him in a better light. He is yet too race beyond two miles on the flat so we’ll have to trust his stamina, however he has won twice over two miles here (both on soft) staying own strongly each time, which bodes well enough.
3.00pm – Coral Golden Mile (Class 2) (3yo+)
BOPEDRO (25/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 4 places)
Bopedro was an eye-catcher for the column when he finished off like a train in a competitive handicap at Newmarket off top-weight. He was then beaten seven lengths into 16th in the ever competitive Moet & Chandon International handicap at Ascot just last weekend, but that finishing position certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. A cynic would say Hollie Doyle purposely found as much trouble as possible on him, before overcoming those exertions and once again finishing off strongly on the unfavourable far side. David O’Meara has won this handicap twice in the last ten years including with Orbaan who was ‘nearest at the finish’ in the Moet & Chandon International handicap prior to winning the Golden Mile. Orbaan remains 7lbs higher than his win in this contest last year, which has put me off chancing him as O’Meara’s best hope here. Bopedro is only 2lbs higher than his last winning mark which was at Newmarket earlier this year, and horses who were previously beaten at Royal Ascot have an excellent record in the Golden Mile, which further boosts his claims.
3.35pm – King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)
QUEEN ME (25/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places)
Queen Me’s entry in the Nunthorpe later this month suggests they think she’s far quicker than perhaps they expected after sending her to the 1000 Guineas over a mile in May. A daughter of Dubai out of a Frankel mare, you would certainly have expected her to appreciate the mile however her dam and half sister were both dual winners over 5F, so this drop back in trip could prove the trick. She certainly showed plenty of speed in the Group One Commonwealth Cup, beaten just three lengths by the subsequent July Cup winner Shaquille, just a length behind subsequent G3 Summer Stakes winner Swingalong. Jim Crowley must’ve had a nice feel off her that day to retain the ride, and she will appreciate the return to a softer surface given she won on G/S on debut. Kevin Ryan has had just twelve runners in non-handicaps at Goodwood the last five years and eight of them have placed, which bodes well for the EW hopes of Queen Me.
DAY FIVE
3.35pm – Coral Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
KING’S LYNN (16/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 5 places)
It’s fair to say that the early exertions in King’s Lynn’s race last time out did anything but aid his cause to justify his 9/2 favouritism. There was plenty of bustling in the middle part of the race causing King’s Lynn to lose his position three furlongs out, and it was all too late for him once he regathered momentum again. It may be a tad concerning that he was a beaten favourite for the fourth time in his last six races, but he’s not necessarily been discredited in those runs. He was sent off the 4/1JF for the listed Cammidge Stakes at Doncaster in April, but appeared to bottom out on the treacherous ground after 168 off. He improved for that run when 2nd on soft ground to stablemate Nymphadora at Chester, beaten just a length giving her 10lbs while carrying top-weight. That was a solid performance backed up by the RPR (114) given he had to come from wide/rear whereas his stablemate had the inner trip, and she’s gone on to frank that form by comfortably winning the Listed City Wall’s Stakes at York, now rated 9lbs higher than when beating King’s Lynn. King’s Lynn was then far from disgraced in the Wokingham at the Royal meeting where Balding’s horses never fired all week, but he was isolated down the far side despite all the action coming up the centre and it was an excellent effort to be beaten three lengths carrying 2nd top weight. He travelled well as he so often does and looked the winner at one point. I wrote in my pointers column that he has become a tricky horse to place, after all he had raced in three Group Ones last season, but now off a mark of 105 and Harry Davies taking 3lbs off, he’s become far too handicapped to ignore and has shaped in recent runs as if ready to taker advantage of that mark.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Goodwood Bets
DAY THREE
1.50 Goodwood – HAVE SECRET (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W 4 places)
3.00 Goodwood – ARTISTIC STAR (6/1 generally – 1pt WIN)
4.10 Goodwood – LINCOLN LEGACY (17/2 generally – 1pt WIN)
DAY FOUR
1.50 Goodwood – AGGAGIO (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W 4 places)
3.00 Goodwood – BOPEDRO (25/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 4 places)
3.35 Goodwood – QUEEN ME (25/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places)
DAY FIVE
3.35 Goodwood – KING’S LYNN (16/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 5 places)
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