Matthew Sutcliffe has an eye for finding value in races and gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of last weekends action, before giving his fancies for Saturday’s action.
He gives one tip for Friday’s action, plus four selections for Saturday’s racing, including his pick for the Rising Star Novices’ Chase at Wincanton. He’s also taking ON Gerri Colombe in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase!
Published: 2.20pm 8th November (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 12.45pm 9th November (Blackjack Magic selection added)
Updated: 6.09pm 9th November (Just A Dime selection added)
Last Week’s Pointers
SATURDAY
12:40 Wetherby – Wild Side Of Life (2/18) – Soldier Of Fortune x Queens Wild (Westerner) – Trainer: Laura Morgan.
Laura Morgan’s string are far from forward at the moment, with four of her last five runners beaten 58L, 53L 44L 38L. The only outlier in that regard was Wild Side Of Life, who was only beaten 5L by the well backed Skelton/Yates favourite Cherie D’Am. It’s worth upgrading that run too as he split the pair who came from midfield, and rallied to regain 2nd from Brook Bay who headed him on the straight. Clearly he must be a nice type for the yard given how their others have performed, and he’ll be of further interest when upped in trip.
1:15 Wetherby – Ladronne (4/13) – Linda’s Lad x Worldeta (Lost World) – Trainer: Tjade Collier.
Ladronne was a notable drifter Saturday morning, opening favourite before going out to 12/1, so your fate was likely sealed if you’d backed him. He was given those ‘one for another day’ rides (I think you can decipher the thinly veiled connotations there) as he set off prominent before dropping back into midfield, then keeping on well for fourth. There was no issues in the jumping department there and that was his first run after a wind op so he’s likely to come on for it. He’s dropped to his last winning mark which came at Catterick this time last year, and he’ll be of interest when stepping back up in trip on better ground.
12:55 Ascot – Estacas (8/11) – Galileo x Earthly Paradise (Dashing Blade) – Trainer: David Bridgewater.
Estacas’ record over hurdles on good ground or quicker reads 52122 as opposed to 0PU8 on soft, so conditions certainly didn’t favour him at Ascot on Saturday. Despite his 25L 8th, he travelled well in rear in a race dominated by two who raced 1st/2nd throughout, making headway on the turn for home but failed to find a change of gear in the softening ground. All his best form over hurdles has come on sharp tracks so Ascot wasn’t too suit, but he showed enough to suggest he’s still got room for manoeuvre off a mark of 111 and will be of interest when getting his preferred conditions.
1:30 Ascot – Jipcot (F/9) – Choeur Du Nord x Blinngaroe (Ungaro) – Trainer: Ben Pauling.
The ex-French Jipcot was evidently well thought of enough for connections to send him to G1’s at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals on his first two starts. He didn’t pull up any trees there, nor did he on chasing debut at Carlisle last month, but he shaped much better for that experience on Saturday despite falling at the last. Although beginning in rear, he was keen throughout and eventually pulled his way to the front under Kielan Woods after the 5th. He jumped well bar a mistake at the tenth and had a few off the bridle turning for home. He was eventually headed just before falling the last and was likely booked for second, but that was still promising to be a solid effort given his early-mid race exertions and if the yard can settle him down, then I rate he’ll have plenty of room for improvement off this mark.
2:05 Ascot – Saint Segal (3/9) – Saint Des Saints x Bal Celtique (Ballingarry) – Trainer: Jane Williams.
It may come as no surprise to see Saint Segal feature here, as he was a bet for the column last week and features in my top ten to follow. His performance was bitter in terms of the former, though sweet in regards to the latter as although he couldn’t sustain that quick gallop up front under his keen going way, the way he rallied back up for 3rd was pleasing. He was keen in his races last season but was either pitched just off the leaders, or came from rear for some cover, so I didn’t think it was the smartest of moves from David Noonan to line him up prominent, as he was lit up from the start. Despite that, his jumping was immaculate and the way he rallied for 3rd after being outpaced suggests he almost certainly needed the run. Interestingly, he’s been dropped a pound for that run whereas the winner has been put up 6lbs. They’re both entered in a top 2M handicap at the end of the month (Boothill won it last year) and if they were both to go, then I’d have no doubt the form would be reversed.
2:40 Ascot – Jango Baie (1/12) – Tiger Groom x Tenessee (Kapgarde) – Trainer: Nicky Henderson.
It spoke volumes that Nico De Boinville came to Ascot for this ride as opposed to going to Wetherby to ride Luccia. He was probably kicking himself a furlong in when he saw how keen Jango Baie was, refusing to settle and pulling himself to the front due to the slow pace set by Tellherthename. Once given his head, he pricked his ears out in front and drew several lengths clear down the side of the course. Normally when we see this occur, for example Saint Segal, the horse flattens out after using up plenty energy pulling their way, but Jango Baie provided us with a rare occurrence as not only did he quicken up when asked, but regained the lead once headed by Tellherthename. Pauling’s horse is likely to be no mug as he won his P2P by 5L beating a full brother to Envoi Allen who has since joined Paul Nicholls in the familiar de la Hey colours. I’d say Jango Baie is a serious horse for the team at Seven Barrows, and could be anything once learning to settle in his races, which will no doubt come with experience.
3:15 Ascot – Bad (3/12) – Morandi x Love Over Gold (Peintre Celebre) – Trainer: Ben Pauling.
Bad was the subject of a gamble in the Fred Winter last season, and showed up well enough to suggest that money wasn’t unwarranted. He improved slightly on that performance in a Juvenile Handicap at Ascot in April, and once again improved at Ascot last weekend. He settled and jumped much better, showing signs he’s acclimatising to life on this side of the channel as plenty of French imports often do, but couldn’t match the finishing kick of the always prominent Knickerbockerglory, The deteriorating conditions that day likely took its toll, but he’s now 6lbs lower than his opening mark and shaped as if he’s got a nice pot in him in 2m handicaps this season.
3:45 Ascot – Victtorino (1/11) – It’s Gino x Victorrie (Vettori) – Trainer: Venetia Williams.
Venetia Williams is a shrewd acquirer of French imports, and she looks to have gained another with Victtorino who took the Sodexo in excellent fashion last weekend. He caught the eye travelling strongly in rear and was cajoled into the race in typical Charlie Deutsch fashion, coming upside the leaders hard held before kicking away strongly, beating two smart types in Two For Gold and Eldorado Allen. A subsequent 4lbs looks lenient and he’s reminiscent of L’Homme Presse, whose climbed some 48lbs in the ratings over fences since coming over from France.
4:08 Wetherby – Camp Belan (4/9) – Milan x Glencree Spirit (Zaffaran) – Trainer: Lucinda Russell
The winner Not Sure could quite easily have featured here as he looks a stayer on the up, but Camp Belan caught the eye heavily having made most of the running. If there’s one thing Camp Belan lacks it’s that vital change of gear, which likely emphasised how five runners overtook him from three fences out. He looked set to drop out of the run-in, but if there’s one thing that (somewhat) makes up for a lack of gear it’s how well he stays, as he rallied stoutly to be just two lengths behind the 2nd/3rd. He is lurking on a competitive mark as his last win came off 3lbs higher over 3m2f at Kelso last November, and I’d be very surprised if the yard don’t send him to that contest again in a couple of weeks.
4:15 Ascot – Celtic Dino (1/11) – Doctor Dino x Bal Celtique (Ballingarry) – Trainer: Sam Thomas.
I often try to highlight ones likely to go under the radar from the previous weekend, but it was impossible not to be seriously impressed with Celtic Dino in the bumper at Ascot. Under a n nonsense ride from Sam Twiston-Davies, he made mostly all and travelled smartly up top. He kicked clear in the manner of a smart horse and wasn’t stopping at the line. This half brother to Saint Segal is a certainty for your trackers and hopefully we’ll see him over hurdles next time out.
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Weekend Punts
FRIDAY
4:00 Exeter – Betway ‘Challenger’ Stayers’ Handicap Chase (Challenger Staying Chase Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-130)
JUST A DIME (1pt E/W four places – 10/1 generally)
I was just going to stick for the four already advised on Saturday this weekend and I hadn’t given Friday’s card too much thought, however I stumbled across one I’ve been waiting for to go over fences for some time and I can simply not let him go unbacked. Unfortunately, I’ve missed the opening price (18s in places) but I’m happy enough to take the 10s as I think he’ll go off shorter.
Just A Dime is a near-facsimile of the old cliche ‘anything over hurdles is a bonus’. Like many other’s within Ben Clarke’s stable, this big, strapping son of Doyen graduated from the point-to-point scene where he was 8L behind the now 144r Brandy Love on debut, finishing in front of the now 130r Brave Kingdom. After two ‘PU’ in points, he racked up two wins on the bounce and made a successful hurdles debut under rules over C&D. That form has worked out exceptionally well, as the 12L 4th (Blackjack Magic, funnily enough!) Was rated 130r at the time and is now rated 132 over fences. The 3L 3rd is unbeaten in three runs since, taking handicap hurdles off 124 and 130, before opening his account over fences off a mark of 136 (146 RPR) last weekend.
Just A Dime was then 2nd to Knockanore in aa novice hurdle given him 6lbs for a 4L gap, and that one is now rated 117, as is Cave Court, who was 20L behind that day. He was then sent off 10/3F for handicap debut off 119 but failed to give his running, with the explanation that he was unsuited by the soft ground. I don’t buy that at all given his P2P debut came on heavy, and all his three career wins came on soft ground. Better could’ve been expected over tomorrow’s C&D next time out but he was weak in the market and I can only imagine they were minding his mark for fences, while giving him more experience under rules. Now he makes his debut over fences off a mark of 114, and he’s had a wind-op which has hopefully ironed out any issues he had in those last couple of runs.
Ben Clarke’s horses often tend to improve for a fence, such as The Galloping Bear who graduated from the P2P scene and Dr Kananga whose mark rose from 112 to 140 at his peak last year. Just A Dime strikes me as another typical improver for the yard and although they’re in no form, they can ready one and his record fresh reads 2PU112. Clarke noted Just A Dime as an exciting chaser to follow in the coming months a short while back, and I’m hoping we get to see that tomorrow.
SATURDAY
1:15 Wincanton – Boodles Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125)
FLAGRANT DELITIEP (1pt E/W – 12/1 generally)
There’s few better handicapped horses in training than Flagrant Delitiep whose some 19lbs below his last winning mark and a further 24lbs below last season’s opening mark over fences. It’s always a risk chancing one who’s winless for so long, but he showed enough at Plumpton off a break last time out to suggest he’s ready to strike off his lowering mark, beaten six lengths and 25L clear of the 5th. It’s largely a sign of intent whenever they bring him back to Wincanton, with his SP’s reading 11/2, 9/2, 3/1, 2/1, 7/2, 10/11, 2/1, 5/2 and 11/2, with his overall course record reading 421212135, narrow that down to 21221 when there’s soft in the description so Saturday’s conditions will suit. The excellent Harry Kimber is booked whose record for the yard reads 36-10-8 all time with a healthy profit margin of £21.36 to a £1 stake, and I’ll take the view that he’s been laid out for this contest having dropped down the weights, as opposed to merely being regressive.
1:50 Wincanton – Boodles ‘Rising Stars’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
DOYEN STAR (0.5pt E/W – 10/1 generally)
In the last ten renewals of this contest we’ve seen just one field with six runners or more, with six having just three runners. While I do think Doyen Star is classy enough to win, playing this each way ante-post is likely to yield in profit even before the off. I’m keen to take on Knappers Hill who didn’t look the most natural of chasers at Chepstow last time out, and found nothing off the bridle behind one who rarely does himself. Might I made plenty errors on his chasing debut last time out and is another short priced horse who I’m confident in taking on. JPR One was promising on his chasing debut last time out, but the fact he was sent off 9/2 in a three runner field with the short favourite disappointing, suggests the form may be somewhat warped. 120k buy Doyen Star is unbeaten in three life time starts, and the fact that connections swerved the Supreme/Ballymore to keep him fresh for a chasing campaign speaks volumes in my mind. His point-to-point win hasn’t seen many stars come from it, but he lit the sky up himself on hurdles debut when overcoming greenness. The market wasn’t entirely impressed by that victory as he was sent off 15/2 next time out, but won impressively from the front in the manner of a very nice type. He had the (at the time) 128r Crebilly behind him who boosted the form last time out now rated 134r, as did the 4th. The yard clearly thought continuing over hurdles was a waste of his talents as a future chaser, and he’s likely to have been well prepped for this for some time.
2:20 Down Royal – Ladbrokes Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)
ENVOI ALLEN (1pt win – 5/1 generally)
I’ve long been of the opinion that Gerri Colombe is incredibly overrated, which will be an ironic opinion for many given I’m playing Envoi Allen. I’ve no doubt Gerri Colombe is an above average horse, but the Gold Cup talk is ridiculous and I’m not entirely sure how he’s warranted a place at that table. He began his chasing career beating Bronn by 2 3/4L, now he was only 4 1/4L in front of Bronn at Cheltenham and 10 3/4L at Aintree. With the greatest of respect, is improving 8L over Bronn from November-March really Gold Cup winning form? Absolutely not. He may have improved over the summer, but he has no business being 4/5F when Envoi Allen is 5/1 here.
Although a beaten favourite in the Champion Chase at Gowran Park last time out, the heavy ground on reappearance won’t have suited Envoi Allen and the winner was laid out for it, notching up his 3rd win in the contest. That form has been given a significant boost as the 2nd, Gentlemansgame went one better in the Charlie Hall last weekend, and Envoi was giving him 9lbs so the 7L gap between the pair is good enough form given Gentlemansgame was given a mark of 160 for that Charlie Hall win. In hindsight then, that run was absolutely fine for his seasonal reappearance and would’ve put him cherry ripe for another tilt at this race that he beat Kemboy in last year. His course record reads 1111, he’s 111 in the month of November, and the drying ground will suit him more than it will Gerri Colombe.
2:25 Wincanton – 62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Gbb Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
BLACKJACK MAGIC (0.5pt E/W – 16/1 generally)
Anthony Honeyball hasn’t had a runner in this contest in the last decade so it’s rather telling that he’s responsible for more than a quarter of the field in here. Both Sam Brown and Blackjack Magic were doubly entered over the weekend so I opted to wait until after dec’s to play the pair, and I’ve landed on the bottom weight Blackjack Magic. I very nearly favoured Sam Brown, as he’s undoubtedly well handicapped off 152 given his 4L 3rd to Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall last season and he was still going best of all in the Pat Taaffe at Punchestown before falling two out, but you’d have to go all the way back until 2000 to find the last eleven year-old winner of this contest, and although he;’s had excuses since the Charlie Hall, he’s hardly been consistent.
Honeyball’s other son of Black Sam Bellamy, Blackjack Magic, strikes me as an improving stayer and can make it 3-5 over fences. He was impressive as a novice chaser last season, cosily beating the improving Rose Of Arcadia at Exeter in January, who backed up that form with two subsequent victories. He was never going well from the off at Uttoxeter when pulling up after the 11th, but bounced right back there next time out when strong in the market, cosily beating Real Stone carrying top-weight. Real Stone is yet to test that form, but had previously beaten Another Crick who’s since climbed 8lbs higher, so there is something to go on.
He won first time up in 2021 and was 2nd on reappearance last year so we know he goes well fresh, and he handles soft ground with aplomb. Anthony Honeyball’s record in handicap chases at Wincanton reads 17-5-7 (£9.12) in the last five seasons. Rex Dingle retains the ride from last time out and his course record reads 95-15-14, backing them all to a £1 stake would have yielded an impressive £81.46.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
FRIDAY
4.00 Exeter – JUST A DIME (1pt E/W four places – 10/1 generally)
SATURDAY
1.15 Wincanton – FLAGRANT DELITIEP (1pt E/W – 12/1 generally)
1.50 Wincanton – DOYEN STAR (0.5pt E/W – 10/1 generally)
2.20 Down Royal – ENVOI ALLEN (1pt win – 5/1 generally)
2.25 Wincanton – BLACKJACK MAGIC (0.5pt E/W – 16/1 generally)
Check out this weeks Weekend Watch, where Andrew Mount, Dave Young and Kate Tracey guide us through their picks for all 10 ITV races on Saturday:
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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