Matty Sutcliffe guides us through the horses to take out of last weekend’s action, before giving some value punts for Kempton and Warwick on Saturday including a 16/1 each-way play in the Lanzarote Hurdle.
Updated: 3:55pm 11th January (Odds correct at time of publication)
Last Week’s Pointers
Friday 5th January
Ludlow 2:10 Saint Davy (1/5) – Balko x Saintejole (Poliglote) – Trainer: Jonjo O’Neil.
Saint Davy was a promising type last season for Gay Smith and Jonjo O’Neil, finishing midfield in the G1 Grand Sefton Novices’ Hurdle after a trio of wins (P2P, Bumper, Maiden Hurdle). Though not seen since April, he won cosily on soft ground at Ludlow overcoming the front-running track bias on the day (RP descriptions of the winners read ‘disputed lead’, ‘disputed lead’, ‘made all’, held up in last’, ‘made virtually all’, ‘made all’, ‘made all’. That was a smart performance first time up and the yards runners often come on for the run, so despite a rise in the weights, he could still be well handicapped and I expect him to make up into a graded chaser next season.
Saturday 6th January
Wincanton 1:30 Fakir (3/4) – Day Flight x Lazary (Bobinksi) – Trainer: Anthony Charlton.
Fakir is undoubtedly not the horse he once was for Joseph O’Brien, but took his record in fields of six or under to 153323 (as opposed to 6PU4PU5) for Milton Harris/Anthony Charlton when a staying on 3rd Wincanton. Fast Buck and Mr Grey Sky set a good pace despite the heavy going, and Fakir was initially outpaced, but stuck to his task well to be beaten just four lengths. He’s becoming dangerously well handicapped off a mark of 100 given he left Gordon Elliot on 123, and the addition of cheek-pieces seemed to give him a lift, so he’s one to keep an eye on next time out provided a small field and soft ground.
Newcastle 2:15 Tara’s Halls (2/7) – Yeats x Brixen (Heron Island) – Trainer: Sue Smith.
The 2/7f winner Handstands was a pointer for the column after his facile success at Hereford in December and I think he’ll prove to be a 130r type this season, so Sue Smith’s Taras Halls will be of interest in handicaps next time out off a mark in the low 100s after his second to Pauling’s mount at Newcastle on Saturday. The son of Yeats made good headway from midfield to join the leader three out, travelling well upsides him before that one pulled away by seven lengths. Taras Hall pulls a further eight lengths clear of the 3rd with the rest of the field strung out like washing, and this bumper winner should make his mark felt in handicaps for the Eldwick based Sue Smith.
Wincanton 2:40 Iconic Muddle (2/7) – Sixties Icon x Spatham Rose (Environment Friend) – Trainer: Gary Moore.
It was favourable to race on the front end at Wincanton on Saturday with the Racing Post’s description of the winners reading ‘prominent’, ‘pressed leaders’, ‘led’, ‘led’, ‘prominent’, ‘in touch with leaders’, ‘raced in second’, so we can upgrade the performance of Iconic Muddle, who was held up for the majority of the race before staying on well to finish a 1/2L second to the very well backed Dibble Decker. Gary Moore’s gelding took his record fresh to 0-7 and the last time he won on heavy ground was when a 1/3F at Plumpton in March 2020, so we can upgrade the performances further on that basis along with the fact that his top five RPR’s have come between February-April. He remains a pound below his last winning mark and on that back of that effort, he’ll be of strong interest next time out, particularly on a high handed track.
Wincanton 3:15 Rare Clouds (1/7) – Cloudings x Rare Vintage (Germany) – Trainer: Simon Earle.
Rare Clouds was a welcome winner for the Weekend Watch and recorded his joint best career performance on RPR’s (110), which have all come on heavy going (record reads 3rd, 2nd, 1st). I’m unsure as to why connections have kept him away from the going for so long, but he clearly revelled in it and although a 10yo, he could still have more to offer on this going from his revised mark particularly given the progressive form he’s in.
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
Kempton 1:30 New Bet-In-Race With Coral Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-145) City Chief 1pt WIN (6/1 generally, 7/1 William Hill)
City Chief is doubly entered this weekend, but given he’s struggled to get home over 3m2f/3m3f the last twice, I’m hoping Nicky Henderson see’s sense and drops him back in trip as opposed to sending him to the 3m5f Wigley Handicap at Warwick. While there’s no issue with him in the jumping department, the stiff Cheltenham finish has caught him out the last twice and reverting to a flatter, easier track should suit City Chief for the yard that took this in 2022 with Caribbean Boy. Regarding the rest of the field at the current time of writing, it’s hard to envisage over half of them will turn up and his two main market rivals will be likely using this as a stepping stone for bigger targets. Chianti Classico hasn’t ran since November and will likely be using this as a prep run for the Ultima handicap, whereas the Skelton’s will surely have the Coral Trophy in mind for Flegmatik, who was beaten a neck in the race off 2lbs higher last season.
1:49 Warwick Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) Mel Monroe 5/2 (11/4 William Hill) 2pt WIN
I’m kicking myself for not tipping up Mel Monroe before decs yesterday, as I was a tad unsure whether she’d come here and with City Chief doubly entered, I couldn’t risk blowing points before the flag had even dropped. As sods law has it, City Chief has gone for the 3m5f chase and Mel Monroe has been declared, and naturally shortened to 5/2.
Regular readers of the column will be aware that this price is far form the norm for myself, but I just can’t let her go unbacked as she is chucked in off a mark of 132. She originally went in my notebook when a pointer for the column after her staying on 2nd to Encanto Bruno at Cheltenham in November, where coming wide wasn’t ideal and she shaped as if she wanted further. That form has worked out well (bar Encanto Bruno, who I suspect has issues) with Push The Button (3L behind) beating a subsequent winner next time out (now rated 132), El Elefante finishing an excellent 4th in a competitive Listed Mares Hurdle at Haydock, and Isaac Des Obeaux (16L behind Mel Monroe) has won twice since, now rated 129.
Mel Monroe was then sent off 11/2 for a G3 at Naval where she made the running and finished a 3L second to the 4/6f Croke Park, who at the time of writing is a top priced 11/1 shot for the G1 Lawlors Of Naas on tomorrow. In that Navan race, the 3rd Search For Glory, who was already rated 132, has subsequently won a G3 since and finished a 2L 4th in a G2 at Limerick, now rated 136, so the rating of 132 for Mel Monroe looks very fair on the aforementioned basis. Now, you could argue she took a backwards step when beaten 8L in a listed mares race at Punchestown next time out when 2/1JF, but she was only 2L behind the second and the winner has since gone in again in a G3 by 7L at Leopardstown, now rated 142 and featuring prominently in the market for the Mares Novices’ at the festival. Mel Monroe ran to an RPR of 129 for the 3rd time there, and can improve on that now going up in trip. Her damn is a half sister to Abolitionist who won several races over three miles and was 3rd in the Irish National in 2017, and she’s also a half sister to Askanna who won a G2 over three miles, and is the dam of the Grade 1 type Minella Cocooner. Mel Monroe has a stamina laden pedigree so backs up the visual notion that this trip will suit, and I can’t see what else beats her.
My only niggling concern is that this is obviously a Pertemps Qualifier so ‘winning’ can often be seen as losing should the long term aim be the Pertemps Final, and that has been the case with Gordon Elliott in this race the last three years with Level Neverending last season who finished 3rd before going on to finish 10th in the Final, then Sire Du Berlais was 4th in 2022 and 2021, and although he was mid div in the Final last time around, he did win the 2021 renewal. Now if we’re sticking to this MO then this could look a foolish bet and you may prefer to back her for the actual final ante-post, but Sire Du Berlais was weighted accordingly in both attempts (158r, 152r,) and Level Neverending just wasn’t that good, but if my thoughts regarding Mel Monroe prove to be true, then I don’t think she’ll have an issue winning this and then going well in the final providing they take that route. If my Elliott tin foil hat MO wasn’t on, she’d be a very confident 3pt bet.
Kempton 2:40 Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) Hermino AA 16/1 1pt EW 4 places
Hermino AA was a pointer for the column last time out at Cheltenham when catching the eye staying on for 3rd behind Pertemps bound White Rhino and last years Coral Cup fifth Bold Endeavour. I noted that “Niall Houlihan never really got him involved from the rear with the front pair always being prominent, giving the impression that there may be another pot in mind for him… A drop in trip could suit Hermino AA, and I’d be keen on backing him for the Lanzarote if connections send him there, particularly if it comes up soft.” To my delight, Gary Moore has him entered and jocked up for the weekend in a bid to give him a fourth Lanzarote Hurdle. His only run going right handed over hurdles was when a 1L second to Howlingmadmurdock last March in receipt of a pound, with that one now rated 26lbs higher after taking a Pertemps Qualifier at Carlisle (2nd subsequently 6L 3rd in 39k Stayers hurdle at Plumpton on Sunday) last time out, so he’s evidently chucked in on that form off a mark of 129. His record over hurdles reads 231213 with three of those coming on ground containing good going, so should the clear forecast dry the ground up, he’ll have no issues in that department.
3:00 Warwick Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) My Silver Lining 14/1 0.5pt EW + Rapper 20/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Trying to whittle down the winner of this valuable 3m5f chase has been the bane of my week, and to top it off, Nicky Henderson has declared City Chief in here as opposed to the three miles handicap at Kempton, despite failing to get home over 3m2/3m3f the last twice (cue wins here!). I’ve landed on two, My Silver Lining and Rapper, with the majority of the reasoning lending itself to a process of elimination so I’ll begin there: There has been just one winning favourite in the last ten renewals and that was a joint one, so Malina Girl, who will likely be well backed, could be vulnerable under that trend and will have to prove she’s mentally there after falling las time out. JP’s Guetapan Collonges was sent off favourite for this race last year but was beaten 13L and returns 10lbs higher, I’d imagine the Midlands National will be the priority so they won’t want to blow his mark. Beauport has been threatening of late and gave a good account of himself in the London National on his first try at a trip like this, but I still wonder whether his mark is too high and if they’re saving him for another tilt at the Kim Muir. Major Dundee is another who will surely be tilted toward the Midlands National giving he won it off a 6lbs higher mark last season. Fontaine Collonges has never backed up a win in the same season and the race fell apart last time out in the Rowland Meyrick and a subsequent 7lbs rise (effectively 10lbs higher) makes him easily passible. Broken Halo was going ever so well in the London National before taking what looked a heavy fall and I’d have reservations backing him after that, and though he was cruising at the time, it’s hard to gauge just how much he’d have found off the bridle. Credo looks in the grasp of the handicapper after being all out in he last two runs, the cheekpieces on Galia Des Liteaux seem desperate and she’s becoming a tricky mare to catch right as she didn’t look spectacular at Market Rasen, and she was a beaten 2/5F at Newbury lto. The yard form of Laura Morgan doesn’t do much to justify the chances of Percussion, Due De Beauchene will be campaigned with spring in mind, and Volcano’s target will be the 3m5f chase here in March that he’s won the last two years.
Now you’ve digested all that, Emma Lavelle has won two of the last ten renewals of this contest and My Silver Lining makes great appeal toward the bottom of the weights. She ended her novice chasing campaign last season with a game win in a Mares Series Chase Final, with Rose Of Arcadia in 3rd that day who was a head behind Galia Des Liteaux in a listed chase at Newbury last month before a good 3rd in the Sussex National last weekend. She had Credo some 31L behind her that day who’s now rated 8lbs higher after a win at Wincanton and two subsequent places including the Tommy Whittle last time out, so already she looks a tad overpriced in comparison to that pair. Lavelle’s began this season with a facile victory at Wincanton with a subsequent winner 33L behind and she was then a good 2nd to Animal at Sandown last time out giving him 9lbs, who was only beaten 3/4L in the Lincolnshire National last time out. She’s a good jumper and shapes like this trip over a slightly sharper track could suit, particularly given she’s by Cloudings whose progeny often stay well. She’s progressive on RPR’s and the yard have found form again after hitting a brief flat spot at the backend of last year, and they have a 25% strike rate in handicap chases here in the last five season (£8.66+).
The other I’m keen on playing is Rapper, who although comes with risks attached given he’s bled on two of his last three starts, he was an eye-catching 4th in a Premier Handicap at Cheltenham last month with only Protektorat, Threeunderthrufive and Broadway Boy ahead of him. Now there’s nothing of that calibre in here, and although Malina Girl was going well at the time, she was too far out to suggest she was a sure thing. While Rapper weakened before the last, he kept on and closed the gap with the 3rd Protektorat who originally lengthened away from him, as well as rallying back for 4th from City Chief, so this trip could potentially suit. His record on third run for the season over obstacles reads 1211 and his record in January similarly reads 1211, so this may be the time to catch him. The improving Alice Stevens takes off 5lbs so he’s effectively 3lbs lower than his last winning mark, and providing his tendency to bleed to reoccur, he has a lively outside chance if replicating that last run.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1:30 Kempton (Coral Handicap Chase) – CITY CHIEF (7/1 William Hill, 6/1 generally) 1pt WIN
1:49 Warwick (Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle) – MEL MONROE 11/4 (William Hill, 5/2 generally)) 2pt WIN
2:40 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle) – HERMINO AA (16/1 generally) 1pt EW
3:00 Warwick (Classic Chase) – MY SILVER LINING (14/1 generally) 0.5pt EW + Rapper (20/1 bet365 and Coral) 0.5pt EW 4 places
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