Matthew Sutcliffe looks back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of Saturday’s action.
His selections include two tips apiece on Friday and Saturday, including a strong fancy in the Listed City Walls Stakes at York on Saturday.
Published: 10.10pm 13th July (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 10.05am 15th July (Angel Bleu, Rhythmic Intent + Accidental Agent selections added)
Pointers
14:05 Haydock: Struth (3rd/11) – Australia x Portrait Of A Lady (Paintre Celebre) – Trainer: Charlie Johnston.
Struth bounced back to form at Haydock in typical Johnston fashion after his eighteen lengths 13th in the King George V Stakes Handicap at the Royal meeting last month. He raced behind Rathgar with the pair setting an honest enough pace, with that rival dropping out of contention to finish a 19L 9th after failing to uphold that gallop. Struth quickened up again and led two furlongs out before weakening only late on to two that raced from off the pace, giving away 15lbs and 10lbs to the pair. A drop back to 1m4f would be ideal on that evidence and he remains well handicapped, having previously finished two lengths behind the G2 Queen’s Vase 2nd Saint George giving him 5lbs.
15:15 Haydock: Gaassee (4th/13) – Sea The Stars x Oojooba (Monsun) – Trainer: William Haggas.
Gaassee finished last when favourite for last season’s Ebor, and this year he unfortunately picked up where he left off, finishing a fourteen length last in the Al Rayyan Stakes , then a seventeen lengths 11th in the Copper Horse Handicap at Ascot. However, he was much more like his former self at Haydock last weekend when an eye-catching 1L 4th in the Old Newton Cup. He was keen for the majority of the race, setting the quickest first five furlongs, but still managed to maintain and increase that speed when setting the quickest final furlong despite not having the clearest of runs. He carried his head slightly to the right when under pressure, and I’d imagine the team will be fitting him with a form of headgear next time out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him line up in the Ebor again for which he is a general 16/1 shot for, and 4lbs lower this time around.
15:25 Haydock: Kingdom Come (3rd/7) – Kingman x Monami (Sholokov) – Trainer: Clive Cox.
Kingdom Come was another one to bounce back from a poor performance at Ascot. Although 0-5 on turf as opposed to 3-3 on the AW, the manner in which he kept on for 3rd at Haydock suggests his turn is near. He was resigned to hands and heels for the last two furlongs, with Kingscote not fully extended by any means, suggesting there are other targets in mind for him. He gave 13lbs and and 16lbs to the two 3yos in front of him, and he could be lurking on a dangerous mark for a valuable prize later in the summer.
17:00 Haydock: Bajan Bandit (4th/10) – Oasis Dream x Dirayah (Dark Angel) – Trainer: Grant Tuer.
Bajan Bandit gave a good account of himself upped to Class 3 level having previously easily won a Class 5 handicap over course and distance. The former Richard Hannon inmate was set a couple of stiff tasks as a 2yo and could be a nice type for the shrewd Grant Tuer yard who enjoy landing a gamble or two. Despite having won from the front last before, he was held up this time which perhaps didn’t suit as much, but caught the eye travelling well and didn’t have the clearest of runs before keeping on nicely for fourth, recording the quickest final furlong.
13:50 Sandown: Equality (1st/10) – Equaino x Penny Drops (Invincible Spirit) –Trainer: Charlie Hills.
My performance of the week went to Charlie Hills’ improving Equality, who followed up his five lengths handicap demolition with an excellent win in the G3 Coral Charge. He recorded the 2nd highest RPR (117) in the last ten renewals of the contest, with the best (120) coming from his former inmate Battaash, who went on to win the Nunthorpe the following season. It could be argued he was flattered from the front, but the manner in which he pricked his ears and quickened up smartly, never really looking in any form of danger, was impressive. Charlie Hills is a dab-hand in the art of training sprinters, and Equality could improve further yet, he’ll almost certainly be aimed at a tilt toward the Nunthorpe and at 20/1 he rates a small each way play.
14:25 Sandown: Dutch Decoy (3rd/14) – Dutch Art x The Terrier (Foxhound) – Trainer: Charlie Johnston. Revich (4th/14) – Requinto x Kathleen Rafferty (Marju) – Trainer: Richard Spencer.
Both Dutch Decoy and Revich caught the eye as they were the only ones to get competitive in a race dominated by the 1st and 2nd who were prominent throughout. Dutch Decoy broke awkwardly and was in rear throughout, before charging down the outside setting the fastest final three furlongs, and the 2nd quickest two prior to that. Although winless since last August, the fact he remains 3lbs above that mark is a testament to his consistency, and he’s one to look out for at the Goodwood festival at the end of the month. Revich caught the eye in a different manner, as his run was checked multiple times through the last quarter of the race after travelling well. He remains 5lbs higher than his last win but in 2nd that day (3L back) was subsequent Buckingham Palace Stakes Witch Hunter, so he may still be on a tempting enough mark and will be of each way interest in competitive handicaps this summer.
Weekend Punts
FRIDAY
Newmarket 13:50 – 6 Horse Challenge At bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)
KNOCKBREX (10/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places)
Knockbrex paid an almighty price for setting a suicidal pace in the Golden Gates Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot last month. Having raced too keenly to sustain such a gallop, I’m willing to draw a line through that performance and bank on him bouncing back to the form he showed in the spring. He made all at Pontefract to win by three lengths beating the now 94r Perfuse. He then bumped into subsequent Queen’s Vase winner Gregory, beaten under 2L with that one now rated 111. Both those bits of form make him attractively handicapped off a mark of 90, and the yard have won this race an impressive six time in 2013, three of who were beaten at Royal Ascot last time out. The ground is currently good-to-firm at Newmarket which he ran perfectly well on at York, but the forecast showers (combined with probable heavy watering) will be no harm to him, as he won on soft ground at Pontefract. Jason Hart won on him there and is jocked up to hopefully take that partnership to 2 from 3.
Ascot 15:25 – Close Brothers Property Division Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-90)
THEME PARK (8/1 generally – 1pt E/W 4 places)
Connections won this contest with the likeable Isla Kai in 2021 and they have a good chance of repeating that feat with the royally bred Theme Park. The son of Lope De Vega was a pointer for the column when 6th over 7F at York on the 17th May, and he improved on that performance in 0-95 company, splitting Quantum Impact and Saxon King who reversed those placings with each other when midfield in the Brittannia Stakes last month. Being held up around Chester likely didn’t suit last time out with the 1st and 2nd racing prominently throughout, however to his credit, he made smooth progress and kept on nicely off top-weight. He now goes up in grade to 0-90 company but that is no issue, and I think the drop back In drip on this stiff mile will strongly suit. Stall 12 might not be initially deal, however given he’s likely to be dropped in, hopefully it won’t prove to be too much a burden.
SATURDAY
14:20 Ascot – Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Angel Bleu (5/1 generally – 1.5pt WIN)
Angel Bleu fared far better than his finishing position suggests in the Group One Queen Anne at the Royal meeting last month, and he can regain the winning thread here down in grade. Though beaten five lengths there, he was without cover for the most part and the race favoured those who raced prominent. The son of Dark Angel had his momentum checked at a vital stage but was one of the only ones to finish with running, and the quick ground will have been a hindrance to begin with. Though he won on good/firm ground as a 2yo, his record when the ground has soft in the description reads 111161, so the softening ground will see him in a far better light. He’s a horse who needs plenty of cover to be seen to good effect and quicken off an honest pace, and the American horse in here will hopefully guarantee that. I’ve reservations about several in here, for all Aldaary will enjoy the return to a softer surface, he’ll need to step up on his previous form to take this, and he was previously 3/3 when returning from break, so I’m unsure the argument that he’ll improve for a run is applicable. Master Of The Seas has some high class form in the book, however his Meydan form this winter doesn’t scream progressive – he only beat the 108r Shelir by half a length in a G2, and was behind El Drama in a G1 who’s been comfortably beaten twice in listed company back on these shores. I wouldn’t be too confident on Jimi Hendrix stepping up from handicap company into this G2 (for all his RPR that day suggests he’s entitled to) as he’s known for spitting his dummy out when the field is closed against him, which can happen on the round course here. Angel Bleu has his optimum conditions here and there shouldn’t be any excuses for him not to be there at the business end.
York 14:35 John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Queen Me (11/2 generally – 1.5pt WIN)
Queen Me was a bet for us in the G1 Commonwealth Cup and she takes a big drop in Grade here, as well as a drop in trip. She ran a cracking race to be beaten just 3L, perhaps racing on the unfavourable part of the track with those in front of her drawn lower. She showed excellent speed from the front there to suggest the drop back to 5F will prove no issue, and her dam was a multiple 5F winner. She will carry 5lbs less than any other in the field, and she’s officially rated 4lbs lower than the top rated Regional, but will get a huge 12lbs weight pull with him. Three years olds have won the last two running’s of the contest and Andrea Atzeni, who won the race with a filly last year, is jocked up – not to mention Kevin Ryan has won the race twice.
York 15:10 John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
Millebosc (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W 5 places)
William Haggas has won two of the last ten running’s of this contest and it’s interesting he sends this ex-French son of Le Havre as his only runner, having previously had multiple entries earlier in the week. One of those winners was Sinjaari in 2020, who was returning from a long layoff as well as having his first start after a gelding operation. Millebosc is himself is returning from a long layoff, where he was an eyecatching 5th at Lingfield on yard debut in November under somewhat tender handling. He was gelded in January and presumably saved for this contest, and he looks incredibly well treated on his 3yo form. He was under two lengths behind St Marks Basillca in the G1 Prix Du Jockey Club, with subsequent Arc 5th and G1 Champion Stakes winner Sealiway a shade ahead in 2nd. That form alone makes him seriously well in off a mark of 97, in fact he could runs 10lbs below that form and still be competitive enough. Obviously, he carries risks having performed nowhere near that level in six subsequent starts since, but his debut for Haggas gives optimism the yard have nursed him to back to a competitive level of ability. I’d be lying if I said that quick ground wouldn’t hinder his chances given his pedigree and form, but the forecast for York looks bleak so hopefully the heavens open up for him.
15:30 Ascot – Ascot Racecourse Supports Children Heard And Seen Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95)
Rhythmic Intent (13/2 generally – 1pt E/W 2 places)
The field has somewhat cut up here due to the soft ground, but Rhythmic Intent stands his ground and holds solid claims. He was a bet for this column in May when 1m4f may have been on the sharp side, but he was last off the bridle on the front end there and was only collared a furlong out, before keeping on to be beaten just over a length. The form of that race has worked out nicely with Nathanael Greene in 5th finishing behind Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami next time out, before finishing a staying on 4th in the Northumberland Plate. Raven’s Ark was subsequently 2nd to today opponent Crescent Lake who were racing off level weights, whereas Rhythmic Intent was giving him some 13lbs, so Crescent Lake has a mountain to find with Rhythmic Intent on that formline. The winner of that race was Sheer Rocks who won cosily at Epsom next time out and is now rated 7lbs higher. I’m happy enough to forgive Rhythmic Intent’s effort (or lack of) in listed company at York last time out on ground lively enough, and he’s now 5lbs below this seasons opening mark of 96, where he was behind Tritonic and Contact at Newmarket, who’re both now rated 4lbs and 11lbs higher respectively. The drop back to a class 3 will surely see Williams’ gelding in a better light here, as he is a respectable 1414 in this class and the return to softer conditions will likely suit. Real Dream is the well backed favourite but in all honesty I was disappointed with his attitude when asked to go and win his race at York when 3rd to Scampi, and that form hasn’t worked out all too well either. James Doyle is a rare enough booking for the yard, having teamed up just once in the last 12 months, but they grabbed some placed money which bodes well for the EW prospects.
16:00 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
Accidental Agent (33/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 5 places)
I’m taking a chance on the admirable old boy Accidental Agent here, in what I don’t think is a vintage renewal of the Bunbury Cup. Winless since C&D success last April, he’s struggled to carry top-weight in all but three of his ten races in handicaps since, so the 8-10 he’ll be carrying here makes him a far more interesting proposition. He was a three length 7th in this race last year off a mark of 112, and he returns some 11lbs lower with a further 7lbs taken off his back. There’s a suspicion that connections have had this race in the back of their minds this season, and he was only beaten two lengths over C&D on reappearance in May, so it’s not as if there’s a lack of competitive life in the old legs just yet. The removal of the blinkers raise a question, but perhaps he’ll be revitalised by the change. The softer ground might suit him nowadays, and he could spring a surprise off the lowest mark of his career.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
FRIDAY
1.50 Newmarket – KNOCKBREX (10/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places)
3.25 Ascot – THEME PARK (8/1 generally – 1pt E/W 4 places)
SATURDAY
2.20 Ascot – ANGEL BLEU (5/1 generally – 1.5pt WIN)
2.35 York – QUEEN ME (11/2 generally – 1.5pt WIN)
3.10 York – MILLEBOSC (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W 5 places)
3.30 Ascot – RHYTHMIC INTENT (13/2 generally – 1pt E/W 2 places)
4.00 Newmarket – ACCIDENTAL AGENT (33/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 5 places)
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