Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through the horses to take out of last weekends action, before giving his value bets to back in this weekends racing.
Matt continued his red-hot form last week, tipping 16/1 winner Le Patron. He gives four tips for this weekends racing, including a confident 2pt win tip at Cheltenham on Friday.
Published: 3.29pm 13th December (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 3.23pm 14th December (Donnacha selection added)
Weekend Punts
FRIDAY
1:15 Cheltenham – Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-140)
DONNACHA (1pt win – 8/1 generally)
By now you’ll be aware of my fondness for this horse, who featured in my GG Top Ten To Follow and was an each way bet for the column here last time out. A sticky late round of jumping cost us the win last time out as I’m sure granted a clearer round, especially two out, he’d have closed the two lengths gap with the promising Impose Toi, who’s around a 15/2 shot for the Betfair Trophy next weekend. Donnacha finished off his race strongly, clocking the quickest final furlong, suggesting a step up in trip would suit. While this is only an extra half furlong, it is also on the new course which favours those with a surplus stamina over a trip this short, and with a strong enough pace forecast, he’ll be staying on all the way up the hill. Nigel Hawke has had just one winner at Cheltenham in the last five season, but that came in this contest in 2019 with another 8/1 shot in Repetitio, coincidentally coming off the back of a run on the old course where he finished 3rd behind Allmankind in the G2 Triumph Hurdle trial.
1:50 Cheltenham (New) Cheltenham Racecourse Food Bank Collection Mares’ Handicap Chase (Challenger Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125)
WALK IN CLOVER (2pt win – 11/2 generally)
Walk In Clover was a pointer for the column last time out when she was third on the old course here over two miles last month, where I noted “both of her wins over fences have come over further (2m4f, 3m 1/2f) and all three of her career wins have come in mares company, so I’ll look to back her when returning to a race containing the conditions after she posted a career best RPR last time out.” Now back over 2m4f and against her own sex, she makes serious appeal, particularly given she’s the only course and distance winner in this field, which came from when 14lbs out of the weights in April. Her current mark of 122 doesn’t look beyond her judged on her form this season, she was 21L in front of the subsequent Haldon Gold Cup winner Elixir De Nutz at Chepstow in October, just eleven lengths behind Al Dancer who was a gallant 3rd off 154 in the G2 Old Roan next time out. (though there was six fences omitted), and Triple Trade (who she was third to last time out) has backed up that win with a 3L 3rd to Boothill in a valuable C2 at Ascot next time out. Her last win came when carrying 12-2 over three miles second top-weight is no issue, and she can take this comfortably if getting a nice toe into the race with Harry Skelton jocked up.
SATURDAY
1:50 Cheltenham (New) Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
FUGITIF (1pt win – 8/1 generally)
The market certainly hasn’t missed Thunder Rock, who’s mark of 146 looks workable given Mahler Mission boosted his Colin Park form last time out with a second in the Coral Gold Cup, won by Datsalrightgino who beat Thunder Rock off levels in a Grade Two at Ayr in April. He’s likely to go off favourite on that evidence, which is why I’m keen to take him on as favourites don’t have a great record in this coveted contest (0-10). Five of the last ten winners of this contest had previously raced at Cheltenham last time out, with four of them coming from the November Paddy Power Gold Cup so it may pay to stick with one of those qualifiers and Fugitive tops the bill. His run in last month’s Gold Cup can be marked up as the cheekpieces lit him and he almost jumped too well, with Gavin Sheehan a lot closer to the pace than he initially would’ve liked. He jumped alongside the eventual winner Stage Star coming down the hill, but a combination of the cheekpieces and a strongly run race meant he finished a tired horse. The headgear is likely to be discarded now and there’s not an obvious abundance of early pace in the race which will suit this big, strong traveller. While several of these bring good course form, Fugitif tops the RPR’s around the New course in this field with 157 (x2) after his 1L second to Il Ridotto (gave 5lbs) in January and his 2L second to Seddon (gave 11lbs) in the Plate at the Festival. He gets his preferred soft ground (though has form on drier should it clear up), and he has won second time up of a break twice so he’ll be cherry ripe for this test.
3:15 Doncaster bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150)
FORWARD PLAN (1pt E/W three places – 10/1 Bet365, 8/1 generally)
Forward Plan will find this Class Two much easier than the G3 Badger Beer Handicap he contested last month from 7lbs out of the weights. Though he had a stiff task from the offset, he ran creditably making stealthy progress from the rear throughout, jumping the third last in second before weakening into sixth in ground likely soft enough after perhaps doing too much too soon. The form of that has worked out in places with Gustavian (6th) finishing second to Richmond Lake in a Class Two at Aintree last weekend and the 4th (Certainly Red) was a 4L fourth in the London National at Sandown on Saturday. Though Forward Plan was twice beaten off this mark last season, the form of his Kelso third in this class in March worked out well with Half Shot and Elvis Mail both going in since. He’ll be 8lbs better off at the weights with Sail Away for their 11L gap in the Champion Handicap at Ayr in April should that one take up his entry and now he’s racing off his correct mark, he’s a big player for a yard that are 1-1 in handicap chases here over the last five seasons with the better ground will suit him more than most.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
FRIDAY
1.15 Cheltenham – DONNACHA (1pt win – 8/1 generally)
1.50 Cheltenham – WALK IN CLOVER (2pt win – 11/2 generally)
SATURDAY
1.50 Cheltenham – FUGITIF (1pt win – 8/1 generally)
3.15 Doncaster – FORWARD PLAN (1pt E/W three places – 10/1 Bet365, 8/1 generally)
Last Week’s Pointers
FRIDAY
12.40 Sandown – Castelfort (1/7) – Castle Du Berlais x Stellarmor (Soldier Of Fortune) – Trainer: Jane Williams.
It was a sign of things to come when Ithaca’s Arrow idled wearily up the hill in the first at Sandown, signalling just how desperate the conditions were. It looked as if he had the beating of the odds on favourite Castlefort, but I was impressed with how Jane Williams’ mount rallied back up to lead in the final strides, displaying a lovely attitude that every trainer desires in racehorse, particularly for a juvenile. From the family of Bal Celtique, the dam of Saint Segal, Williams could have another classy type on her hands for the future.
1.15 Sandown – Hudson De Grugy (3/8) – Falco x Queen De Grugy (April Night) – Trainer: Gary Moore.
There was seven in a line jumping the first in the 1:15 Sandown, but they were strung out like washing towards the end which highlighted the gruelling nature of the going. Hudson De Grugy was inconsistent over fences as a novice last season with form figures of 42731PU, and he raced lazily without a visor on Friday, but there was promise to be taken out of his performance. It was hard to envisage any other winner once Harry Skelton kicked clear after the 9th on Mount Tempest, and the likes of Alto Alto and Dreams Of Home struggled to match the lifting of the pace from the rear, but despite being behind the bridle at times and jumping the second last fifteen lengths down in fifth, Hudson De Grugy was about the only one to finish off their race with something left in the tank and may improve next time out with that first run after a wind op behind him.
1.50 Sandown – Deafening Silence (1/5) – Alkaadhem x Taipers (Taipan) – Trainer: Dan Skelton.
I thought it would take a good one to beat Paul Nicholls’ Insurrection in the Grade 2 Betfair Beacon’s Winter Novices’ on Friday and I firmly believe we did, in the form of Deafening Silence. There was nothing quiet about this son of Alkaadem’s performance, nor the ride of Harry Skelton, who was able to galvanise this future chaser through treacherous conditions in determined fashion, despite being off the bridle a lot earlier than the eventual second, who led all the way. The former pointer of Tom Ellis’ relished the test of stamina, looking destined for a step up in trip which will likely come in the River Don at Doncaster at the back end of January, won last year by Maximilian who was 3rd in this Grade 2 along the way.
3.35 Sandown – Asta La Pasta (3/7) – Walk In The Park x Asian Maze (Anshan) – Trainer: Dan Skelton.
A first time tongue tie more often than not indicates an issue with a horses wind, so the heavy ground at Sandown wouldn’t have helped the breathing of Asta La Pasta carrying 11-11, but he shaped with considerable promise throughout. Having been held up in rear throughout, this big son of Walk In The Park cruised into contention at the second last but couldn’t quite match the finishing kick of Classic Anthem and He’s A Latchico, who were favoured by racing to the fore throughout. Physically, he caught my eye as one who’ll improve for a trip this season (related too a 135+ type from 3m-4m1f) and certainly a fence in time, and he’s one for handicaps on better ground.
SATURDAY
12.05 Sandown – Elle Est Beau (3/5) – Walk In The Park x Autumn Clouds (Oscar) – Trainer: Dan Skelton.
The Skelton’s have played a blinder in getting Elle Est Beau an opening mark of 96. By Walk In The Park out of a half sister to 2015 Grand National winner Many Clouds, hurdling over 2m-2m4f will no doubt be a vacuum for experience and that was the impression I was given on Saturday, where she was a tenderly handled third under Tristan Durrell from 4lbs out of the weights on handicap debut. She jumped well bar the first and made good headway before being outpaced two out, and despite losing a right hind shoe, finished well for third. Visually, that backed up the pedigree in the sense she certainly will improve for further and if she takes up her entry at Bangor over 2m7f this Friday she’ll be of major interest, particular if Harry Skelton takes over.
12.40 Sandown – Dolphin Square (4/8) – Shantou x Carrig Eden Loss (Luso) – Trainer: Phillip Hobbs & Johnson White.
Dolphin Square has dropped 8lbs in the weights since last troubling the judge and has looked out of love with the game since, beaten 19L, 22L, 33L, 34L and 66L prior to posting his best RPR (128) since last January at Sandown on Saturday. The first time blinkers proved somewhat of an oracle as he jumped/travelled with plenty of zest, staying on all the time to the line despite being passed by a few after the last. Trusting one with David Maxwell (irrespective of his enthusiasm for the game) isn’t the most natural of punting angles but we often see them pop up once well handicapped, and this might be the case for Dolphin Square next time out.
1.37 Chepstow – Wayfinder (2/20) – Shantou x Sibury (Overbury) – Trainer: Rebecca Curtis.
Wayfinder was a gallant third for us at Cheltenham in October and I’ve always had him down as a good ground animal, with his top four RPR’s (130, 127 x3) coming with good in the description. With that in mind, it was pleasing, and also surprising, to see him run an excellent race from 3lbs out of the weights on heavy ground in the Welsh Grand National Trial on Saturday, finishing second to Nassalam who was annoyingly a pointer for the column from last time out. Wayfinder had pulled up when favourite in this contest last season, but seems a much better horses this time around having had wind surgery in September and he’s wildly overpriced for the Welsh National later this month at 50/1 should connections send him there once more.
1.50 Sandown – Colonel Harry (2/6) – Shirocco x Stateable Case (Be My Native) – Trainer: Jamie Snowden.
Colonel Harry completed the forecast highlighted on the Weekend Watch (insert trumpet), playing second fiddle to the outsider of the field in Le Patron in the coveted Henry VIII Novices’ chase on Saturday. Jamie Snowden’s tasted big time success with Datsalrightgino last weekend and suggested Colonel Harry could prove to be a better prospect than his Coral Gold Cup winning star and that comes as no surprise given how well he stayed on in treacherous conditions over what I think will prove to be an inadequate trip in time.
3.15 Aintree – Prince Zaltar (2/10) – Prince Gibraltar x Alizeyra (Laveron) – Trainer P J Rothwell.
Horses held up at Aintree on Saturday suffered profusely. The Racing Post description of the winners read ‘in touch with leaders’, ‘pressed leader’, ‘made all’, ‘chased clear leader’, ‘prominent’, ‘prominent’ ‘prominent’, ‘prominent’, which clearly highlights the graveyard for those in rear. In fact, there was just one horse who was described to have raced ‘in rear’ that wasn’t beaten 21L+ which was Prince Zaltar in the last. Plenty had virtually stopped to a standstill but Prince Zaltar caught the eye staying on slowly but strongly from rear behind the easy winner Sonigino, and he looks ready for a step back up to three miles.
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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