Matthew Sutcliffe has an eye for finding value in races and gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of last weekends action, before giving his fancies for Saturday’s action. He proved his knack for finding value last week when tipping up 5/1 Wincanton winner Blackjack Magic at a huge 16/1.
He gives five tips for Cheltenham‘s November meeting, including a confident fancy he has for the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday!
Published: 1.42pm 15th November (Odds correct at time of publication)
Last Week’s Pointers
FRIDAY
1:45 Exeter – Insurrection (1/15) – Getaway x Rock In The Park (Rock Hopper) – Trainer: Paul Nicholls.
Paul Nicholls has unleashed many a smart type at Exeter over the years, particularly in the Betway Novices’ Hurdle last Friday, won previously by Dynamite Dollars and Bravemansgame. Insurrection joined that esteemed list of honours with a smart performance under Harry Cobden for the Noel Fehily Racing Syndicate. The imposing son of Getaway made all to easily beat the evens favourite Diamond Ri, kicking clear after a good jump at the last. He was 29L clear of the 3/1 3rd, posting a smart enough RPR of 127 first time over hurdles. Exeter can be a test of a horses stamina, but Insurrection quickened past the line strongly and I suspect we’ll see him follow the Bravemansgame route and end up in the Challow at Newbury in December, though connections did win the old Tolworth with Tahmuras last season, so I wouldn’t rule him out being kept to this trip for now.
3:30 Exeter – War Lord (3/6) – Jukebox Jury x Westalin (Sternkoenig) – Trainer: Joe Tizzard.
Joe Tizzard supposedly had Elixir De Nutz ‘primed’ for the Haldon Gold Cup on Friday and he duly obliged, but I was more taken with stablemate War Lord who ran an excellent 3L 3rd from 5lbs out of the weights. The grey was 3rd in this contest last season, but that was some 21L behind Greaneteen and this year posted an RPR of 149, 15lbs higher than last season despite being rated lower. He was eleven lengths down at the last and out of picture, but stayed on very strongly and probably would’ve won if the post was a few strides way. That was his first run after a wind op which clearly seems to have ironed out any issues he encountered last season, where he was was twice pulled up and beaten 21L, and if it has then he’s certainly well handicapped off a mark of 140 and should make his presence felt soon enough.
4:00 Exeter – Broomfield Present (3/12) – Presenting x Diklers Oscar (Oscar) – Trainer: Kim Bailey.
I tend not to like a visor being equipped to a young horse as it’s a sign of laziness, but there’s a nice pot to be claimed with Broomfield Present once he learns to travel efficiently throughout his races. The ex-pointer was steadily backed into favouritism but couldn’t quite justify the odds, though he recorded a personal best RPR under rules on chasing debut. Despite his inability to travel fluently, there was still plenty of positives to take out of his performance in particular with his jumping, and we can somewhat mark if up given the drying ground might not have aided his cause as he’s been kept strictly to soft/heavy throughout his career thus far. Given he won at Haydock over hurdles on soft ground carrying 12-0 on his penultimate start, I’ve earmarked him for the Tommy Whittle over that C&D next month especially as we often see that contest run on soft/heavy ground.
SATURDAY
12:30 Kelso – Hermann Clermont (3/6) – Al Namix x Abeona De Clermont (Della Francesca) – Trainer: Rose Dobbin.
Hermann Clermont took his record in fields of six or under (when completing) to 332112233 when 3rd at Kelso last Saturday. His record in fields of higher than six runners reads a very uninspiring PU6PUPU35PU4PUPUPU. Though winless since July 2022, he travelled much the best on Saturday and looked the winner two out, though was caught on heels by speedier types before the last. That was still a solid effort over an inadequate 2m1f, and he’s very well handicapped off a mark of 109, 18lbs below when a 2L 2nd at Perth last September. I’ll look to back him when up in trip on a right handed track.
12:40 Wincanton – Ballee (3/9) – Sageburg x Spartan Angel (Beneficial) – Trainer: Phillip Hobbs U& Johnson White.
Paul Nicholls made it eight wins from the last ten renewals of this contest with Meatloaf, and a certain Edwardstone won it in 2019 so it can be a nice pointer for a future smart type. However, I was more intrigued about the performance of the 3rd, Ballee, who was quite literally described as an “eye-catcher”. Deservedly so, as the front pair were always prominent throughout, whereas Micheal Nolan was content to sit in rear throughout with Ballee, who didn’t seem to enjoy being held up toward the slower end of the field. Once the pace lifted in the middle part, Ballee’s jumping improved throughout and he picked off rivals with ease, but it was evident his rider never had the intention of giving his mount a hard time once the front pair had kicked for home. That said, he still clocked the quickest final furlong under hands and heels and I think he’ll be a lovely prospect for handicaps off a low 100s mark once qualifying for them.
1:15 Wincanton – Ede’iffs Elton (4/12) – Geordieland x Ede’iff (Tragic Role) – Trainer: Robert Walford.
We had to settle for a place with Flagrant Delitiep on Saturday despite being heavily backed in from 12/1 to 4/1, succumbing only to his closest market rivals. Given his peak RPR’s have come in December-March, it could be that I trusted his fitness too early on in the year, but I’ll note he’s still one to keep onside of, perhaps back over C&D in December where he won off 112. Aside from him, it was Walford’s other runner who caught my eye, shaping very much like a winner in waiting. It certainly paid to be prominent with the top three always to the fore, and Walford will no doubt have had better hopes for Flagrant Delitiep than Ede’iffs Elton, who wasn’t given an overly hard time once making steady headway from four out. Down in trip without the usual cheekpieces provided us with the intentions of the run, but once he’s up in trip, back in grade with cheekpieces applied, he’ll be worth a good bet, and he often comes good (judged on peak RPR’s) in November-March.
1:35 Aintree – Iwilldoit (2/11) – Flying Legend x Lyricist’s Dream (Dreams End) – Trainer: Sam Thomas.
The omitted hurdles up the straight likely favoured the ex-useful flat horse Gentleman at Arms over the Welsh National winner Iwilldoit, who ran a gallant second back over hurdles for the first time since April 2021 in what was likely intended as a spin around. The runner up was giving 16lbs to the well handicapped winner who cashed in off a 19lbs lower mark than when entering handicaps over hurdles. Iwilldoit recorded a personal best RPR over hurdles which may have surprised connections, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they persevere over hurdles for now to make use of that 10lbs lower mark he has in this sphere, though he’s definitely one to keep onside for the big staying chases coming up.
2:45 Aintree – Nassalam (4/10) – Dream Well x Ramina (Shirocco) – Trainer: Gary Moore.
Nassalam struggled in his two runs over 3m1f last season, but shaped as if he may improve for a return to that trip when a staying on 4th in the Grand Sefton. The race favoured those who were prominent throughout with the 1st and 2nd described to have ‘led narrowly, or disputed lead’ and the 3rd/5th noted to have been ‘in touch with leaders’ or ‘prominent’ respectively. Nassalam was held up ‘towards rear’ throughout the contest and couldn’t quite go the early pace. That was his first attempt over the National fences however, and his jumping improved starkly throughout. It can be hard to peg back the leaders once they’re in a rhythm at Aintree, but he kept on dourly and just got up for fourth, clocking the quickest final furlong. A step back up in distance should suit on that evidence and he tends to come good around this time with his top ten RPR’s (136-148) coming between October-February. He has an entry in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next month, and he was an emphatic 30L winner on his only course start there. It normally takes a ‘proper’ stayer to take the contest and his record over 3M prior would temper enthusiasm, but I think the test would suit him greatly on the back of that effort at Aintree.
2:50 Kelso – Millie Of Mayo (3/12) – Overbury x Gertrude Webb (Central Park) – Trainer: Nicky Richards.
Millie Of Mayo rattled off a good ground hat-trick in the Autumn of 2020 but is winless since then. It’s taking her a while to show signs of a resurgence having missed all of 2022, but she bounced right back to form in first time cheekpieces at Kelso, beaten just a length. She’s a pound below when that hat-trick first began and some 17lbs below when she completed it, so she’ll be of serious interest next time out.
SUNDAY
2:15 Sandown – Xcitations (1/6) – Universal x Bonnet’s Pieces (Alderbook) – Trainer: Pam Sly.
It evidently paid to be on the front end at Sandown on Sunday, as the Racing Post’s description of the winners read ‘in touch with leaders’, ‘Made all’, ‘Prominent’, ‘Towards rear’, ‘prominent’, ‘prominent’, ‘prominent’. The obvious anomaly came in the 2:15, where Xcitations picked off rivals from rear and pulled 13L clear with the second favourite, winning a shade cosier than the eventual 3/4L distance suggests. We can upgrade that win on the aforementioned front end bias, but also he was carrying the topweight of 11-12, and previously he was 0-8 carrying anything above 11-8. He’s a tactually versatile type as he’s won making all, tracking leaders and coming from midfield before, but this was the first time he won coming from rear and he strikes me as one still ahead of his mark.
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Weekend Punts
FRIDAY
1:45 Cheltenham – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150)
BALLYBREEZE (1pt win – 7/1 generally)
Ballybreeze is a second season chaser I’ve been looking forward to and is well in off his mark of 120 for the start of this season. A big, strapping son of Schiaparelli, chasing was always going to be his forte and his 6-0 record over hurdles reflects that, but she showed a good glimmer of his ability there when a length behind Hacker Des Places at Chepstow, who was subsequently 3rd in the Imperial Cup before climbing 12lbs in the ratings after two further wins.
He was last seen at Market Rasen in April where he was still travelling strongly before falling three out, looking very much like justifying 5/4 favouritism. Prior to that, he gave as good an account as you could imagine in the G1 Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival, where a blunder four out lost him some momentum. He still recorded an RPR of 131 there and wasn’t all that far behind some 142, 148, 141 rated rivals, and he can only have appreciated that experience of a strongly run, top quality contest.
He comes here off the back of a wind op and if he returns to the promise of his chasing debut then he will be bang there at the finish off bottom weight. There looks to be somewhat of a good gallop on which will suit his hold up style, he goes well fresh and won’t have any qualms if the ground comes up soft.
4:05 Cheltenham – Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-125)
DONNACHA (1pt E/W – 12/1 William Hill)
Nigel Hawke’s runners often come on for the run, so it can pay to follow those who win first time out. One of my top ten to follow horses Donnacha was impressive on seasonal debut when kicking clear after two out at Chepstow and was entitled to look a tad weary when idling in the final furlong. That form is yet to be tested, but he’s been let in lightly by the handicapper off a mark of 112 given he was only 5L behind the subsequently 139r Crambo. The uphill, galloping test of Cheltenham will suit this big, strong travelling son of Jet Away and Nigel Hawke is profitable to follow at the course.
SATURDAY
2:20 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
THE REAL WHACKER (1.5pt win – 7/1 generally)
A typically fiercely competitive of the Paddy Power Gold Cup beckons this Saturday, headlined by some serious stars. Last season’s Turner’s winner Stage Star tops the market billing, with stablemate and last years 4th Il Ridoto coming in for serious support at second favouritism. I highlighted Notlongtillmay as a player at 14/1 in the column after his staying on 4th here three weeks ago, so hopefully some latched on to that as he’s a general 6/1 shot in most places. Unexpected Party will likely be well supported given Knappers Hill franked that form last time out, but the latter didn’t appear to be tuned up that day and the former was flattered on that basis.
The one horse in here that sticks out like a sore thumb is the still criminally underrated The Real Whacker. Patrick Neville’s flag bearer was a transformed horse over fences last season, unbeaten in three runs over fences which all came here, including one over C&D in the Dipper, recording the same RPR as L’Homme Press the year before. Interestingly, he posted a 9lbs higher RPR than Midnight Shadow did in 2020, who posted one of 160 when winning this contest in 2021, so we know The Real Whacker can certainly run to the level required to take a contest of this nature. His season culminated with a win in the G1 Brown’s Advisory where he just clung on from the staying on Gerri Colombe, who gave that form a boost when taking the G1 Mildmay Novices’ next time out and the G1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase last weekend. Gerri Colombe is rated 13lbs higher since finishing second to The Real Whacker, so although defying mark of 160 in here is a huge ask, he’s actually still nicely well in going strictly off that form. Plenty will suggest that if the race was ran again Gerri Colombe would reverse the form, but I’d seriously disagree as I thought The Real Whacker idled in front once dispatching Bronn, and you could see him start to go again when Gerri Colombe came upsides him.
Carrying top-weight surely be the only reason why he isn’t shorter in here, and although he’ll have to be the first since Al Ferof in 2012 to carry top-weight to victory, I’ve no doubt that he’s classy enough to repeat that feat. It can be incredibly hard to peg back one who gets in a fluent rhythm when making all here, and Sam Twiston Davies will likely use that extra surplus of stamina to send The Real Whacker on a few lengths up top and put them all to the sword.
2:55 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)
CHANTRY HOUSE (0.5pt win – 10/1 generally)
Horses reverting back to hurdles from last season have an excellent record in this race, as do those first time up this season and Chantry House ticks both of those boxes. Now I’m hoping it’s not a point already wasted here as he’s yet to be jocked up and holds an entry at Haydock next weekend, but “if” he is declared tomorrow, I’d make him 4s shot at best by the time to market sorts itself out. Nicky Henderson won this in 2020 with On The Blind Side who fits the aforementioned angle (first time up, chasing last season) and in 2017 with Thomas Campbell who was also having his seasonal debut. In a recent stable tour, Nicky Henderson had a glint in his eye when asked about Chantry House, emphasising how ‘really well’ he was and also noting how he’s likely to start him over hurdles. Now, if we all listened to those stable tours we’d skint, but they do come in handy for quotes such as him starting over hurdles as it provides me with some optimism he’ll be declared tomorrow, but I’ve halved the stake just in case.
With that out of the way, he will run in here off a mark of 147, 15lbs lower than his peak mark over fences. The return to hurdles could spark life back into him given he’s failed to complete four of his last five runs over fences, and now could be the time to catch him given his record fresh reads and incredible 1111111UR. He’s unbeaten over 3M when completing, and is two from three over hurdles, with the outlier coming when 3rd to Shishkhin in the 2020 Supreme. JP McManus won this with Sporting John in 2021 who coincidentally had pulled up behind Chantry House in the Mildmay Novices’ prior, and this looks the perfect starting point for Chantry House to rekindle that racing sparkle.
SUNDAY
1:45 Cheltenham – cavani.co.uk Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+)
WONDERWALL (0.5pt E/W four places – 25/1 generally)
The plotted path to the Cesarewitch didn’t work out for connections of Wonderwall, who was a disappointing bet for the column when 3rd at Chester on his penultimate start. But thankfully they’ve put an end to the flat campaign with this born chaser, as it would be a serious waste of what he’s bred to do. By Yeats out of a Sulamani mare from the family of Ryanair winner Riverside Theatre, chasing was always going to be the aim with the strong gelding and he acquitted himself smartly enough on his debut in this sphere with a 8L 3rd to Sebastopol in the G2 Berkshire at Newbury this time last year. Sebastopol is a fair yardstick and rated 147, and in 2nd that way was the subsequent G1 Turner’s winner Stage Star who’s now rated 155, though given his disliking for the ground there it would be folly to suggest Wonderwall is well handicapped off 132 solely on that form, though it does give us a nice indicator. His form in bumpers and hurdles however, does suggest that a mark of 132 could prove to be lenient. He was beaten 2L by Knappers Hill in a listed bumper, again with Stage Star ahead of him in 2nd. He was an excellent 7th in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival, before making a promising debut over hurdles 2L behind the subsequently 133 rated Pull Again Green (135 over fences), and in front of the 135r Shearer (139 over fences). He then comfortably beat City Chief off levels who has since gone on to be a Grade 2 winner (142r) over fences, and he was still there in the finish before falling at the last in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon.
Evidently then, a mark of 132 could seriously underestimate the talents of Wonderwall should he put it altogether on Sunday, and at 25/1 he’s a massive prices particularly as he’s race fit. The field is likely to cut down with the likes of Good Risk At All, Trelawne, JPR One and Mister Coffey expected to take up engagements elsewhere, and given he comes out best on RPR’s, I can’t quite work out how he’s not significantly shorter in this field with James Bowen already jocked up to ride.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
FRIDAY
1.45 Cheltenham – BALLYBREEZE (1pt win – 7/1 generally)
4.05 Cheltenham – DONNACHA (1pt E/W – 12/1 William Hill)
SATURDAY
2.20 Cheltenham – THE REAL WHACKER (1.5pt win – 7/1 generally)
2.55 Cheltenham – CHANTRY HOUSE (0.5pt win – 10/1 generally)
SUNDAY
1.45 Cheltenham – WONDERWALL (0.5pt E/W four places – 25/1 generally)
Check out this weeks Weekend Watch podcast, where Andrew Mount, Dave Young & Kate Tracey guide us through the six ITV races on Saturday, including four of the key races from the Cheltenham card:
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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