Matthew Sutcliffe is the newest recruit to the GG team and he will be looking back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of Saturday’s action.
Published: 3pm 31st June(Odds correct at time of publication)
Royal Ascot may have finished last week, but the night terrors of the punting bloodbath still prominently remain. Aside from the results, it was a glorious week of competitive racing. We witnessed the birth of new stars, the old champions, the bread and butters of the handicapping scene – even the jumps aficionados were able to see their giants take centre stage. It was an amalgamation to endeavour.
On a personal note, it was a frustrating week to say the least. It began well with Light Infantry and Chillingham returning nice place profits, but the three blank days that followed were a grounding experience. Normally I’d be thrilled with finishing the week on a 22/1 winner in the Wokingham, but that didn’t quite outweigh the abysmal selections elsewhere. There were, of course, some hard luck stories: Yerwanthere stuck in more traffic than a pileup on the M62; the NAP Run To Freedom losing multiple lengths at the start, only for Khaadem (who we beat convincingly last time out) to pop up at 80s – but ultimately there’s no time to dwell on the past in this game.
I’ve always enjoyed reflecting upon the aftermath of the Royal meeting, scouting for the hidden gems in behind the winners, unfolding the horses that were unlucky in running, or were hindered by conditions, yet still lurk on a tantalizing mark. 99% of the competitors are well thought of or else they wouldn’t have been there. Naturally, that makes the task of analysing the winning potential of those a tad more finite in detail; however the likelihood of fulfilling that potential down the line is far bigger.
Royal Ascot Pointers
Day One
Queen Anne: Angel Bleu (7/12) – Dark Angel x Cercle De La Vie – (Galileo). Trainer: Ralph Beckett.
Triple Time was an incredible winner of the Queen Anne, almost Frankel-esque, as he was keen the whole way yet kept on finding under Neil Callan. It looked inevitable for Inspiral to kick on past him, but in true warrior-like fashion he fended her off gamely. The complexion of the race was muddling, some of the forecast front-runners (Chindit, Mutasaabeq, Pogo) were held up, and not many got involved off the pace as the two who were prominent the whole way (Light Infantry and Triple Time) finished 1 st and 3 rd , with Inspiral (who was 3 rd /4 th most of the way) finishing 2 nd . One of the only ones who finished with running was Angel Bleu, who was badly hampered 2F out when still travelling very well. Connections are yet to explore beyond a mile, which has always seemed to stretch him, however the manner in which he quickened up again and was only beaten a nose or such for 5 th suggested that it may be worth going up in trip. Although by Dark Angel, his dam is a full-sister to Highland Reel and Idaho who were both multiple group winners over middle distances. Angel Bleu is a duel G1 winner over in France, and a trip over those shores likely awaits in the Autumn, but I would love to see him drop in Grade and go up in trip.
King’s Stand: Mitbaahy (8/17) – Profitable x Wrood (Invasor). Trainer: Roger Varian.
I am convinced we’re yet to see the full potential of Mitbaahy. I’d put him up at 66s prior to Ascot, so the influx of market support that came for him had left me bitterly disappointed after his performance. There’s no prizes for copping value, but there’s consolation in his promise. Along with the consistent watering, the (forecast!) rain-softened turf ultimately scuppered his chances to a point. My niggling concern with him was that he might not have been able to go the early pace they often do in the King’s Stand, and he was under pressure almost immediately. I do think he is a lazy type, and would benefit from the fitting of headgear, but to his credit he did keep on and finish with running. It didn’t aid his cause with Marshman drifting left in to his path at a crucial stage (not that he would’ve won) either, but there is definitely a big prize in him.
Day Two
Queen Mary: Flora Of Bermuda (6/26) – Dark Angel x Dubai Power (Cadeaux Generation) – Trainer:
Andrew Balding.
Andrew Balding had an Ascot to forget (0/26), but there’s some solace in the way that his daughter of Dark Angel finished off her race in the Queen Mary. There was a slight advantage on the near- side, who finished faster than those on the far-side, however Flora Of Bermuda was first in her group of eight who suffered from that disadvantage and she looks a filly to keep onside. She was previously the product of no luck in running at Beverley in the Hilary Needler behind Midnight Affair, but confirmed that promise and easily beat her this time around. Balding doesn’t send many to Beverley so we can presume she has a nice level of ability which she evidently portrayed at Ascot.
Kensington Palace:
I thought the Kensington Palace was a fantastic race, one of the best of the week. Although my selection Yerwanthere was beaten into 5th despite a torrid passage, she still ran terrifically for a filly so inexperienced, and will certainly be winning races. However, there was three others in particular that caught my eye in a race which I think will throw up plenty winners soon enough. The strong early pace of the race inevitably lead to plenty of the protagonists at the business end coming from the rear. Incredibly, there was five different leaders in the final two furlongs. Several of those who raced prominent dropped out like a light, but these three below were the one who fared the best of those up with the pace.
Zenga (7/19) – Lope De Vega x Blending (Medicean) – Trainer: Roger Varian.
Zenga was making her seasonal reappearance from 263 days off, as well as her first performance after wind surgery, so her performance can certainly be somewhat marked up higher. She sat just off the leaders the whole way, setting the 2 nd quickest pace from the start to the 7F pole, and hit traffic in running at a crucial time. Once she found daylight, she quickened up and finished as if she was held up with those at the rear, clocking the fastest final furlong of those outside the top 5 who were split by 1 1/4L. She looks well treated off a mark of 86 and is entitled to come on for that run.
Roman Mist (8/19) – Holy Roman Emperor x Drifting Mist (Muhtathir) – Trainer: Archie Watson.
Roman Mist was carrying top-weight in this thoroughly competitive handicap and was another who ran well from the front. She unsurprisingly clocked the quickest first seven furlongs give how keen she was. You could’ve forgiven her if she dropped out the back of the tele when combining keenness with the pace she set, so it was a huge testament to her ability to finish as well as she did. Miraculously, she led from 0F-7F and 7f-6f, then 3F-2F and 2F-1F. Naturally, she weakened in the last furlong and gave way to those finishing fast from the rear, however it was an excellent run given she was also carrying top-weight. It will be interesting to see whether connections persevere with the handicap route and aim her towards a big prize, or whether they attempt to recoup further black type success.
Tarrabb (3/19) – Exceed and Excel x Bahjtee (Pivotal) – Trainer: Owen Burrows.
Tarrabb fared the best out of these three, however she had the run of the raced sat on the rail in behind the leaders all the way, and was granted daylight very early on. That said, she still sustained a quick pace consistently through the race, and did hit the front at one point between 2F-1F, before clocking the 4 th quickest final furlong. I think she has enough pace to be dropped back to seven furlongs, and she’s only been put up a pound by the handicapper which is extremely lenient given how she fared in this race.
Royal Hunt Cup – Dual Identity (12/30) – Belardo x Teide Lady (Nashwan) – Trainer: William Knight.
The Royal Hunt Cup had a strange complexion to it, as the 12 th was 2 nd home in its group, so you wouldn’t necessarily have expected the 1 st in that group to be the eventual winner. Jimi Hendrix (my Lincoln fancy!) broke free from his group on the far-side and led home a monumental 1-2 for Chelsea Thoroughbreds who had Sonny Liston in second, despite finishing down the other end of the track. If there was a track bias that day, Jimi Hendrix was simply incredibly well handicapped, and is a horse who flourishes away from the usual hustle and bustle. The only other horse to somewhat run with credibility on that side was Dual Identity, who really got going 2F out. The mile is a tad short for him given all his wins have come over 1m2f. He’s been dropped 3lbs from Ascot and is dipping into the ‘well-handicapped’ waters. Although he still remains 9lbs higher than his last winning mark, he’s dropped 6lbs below his peak career mark and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back at Sandown next month for the Kensington Gates Handicap which he was 2 nd in off 3lbs lower last season.
Day Three
Norfolk Stakes: Malc (2/14) – Calyx x Bereka (Firebreak) – Trainer: Richard Fahey.
Malc became first seasons sire Calyx’s highest rated horse after his excellent 2 nd in the Norfolk, a race that Fahey won with Perfect Power and The Ridler the last twice. Valiant Force was quicker than Malc in the last quarter of the race, but Malc had done well to be beaten just 1 1/4L by the eventual winner after having to change his path toward the finish. He strikes me as a 2yo who will go straight up to six furlongs next time out, perhaps to the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. Calyx raced exclusively at six furlongs, and Malc is a half-brother to a five time winning miler, so the step up in trip should suit him to a tee.
King George V Stakes Handicap: Land Legend (7/19) – Galileo x Landikusic (Dansili) – Trainer: James
Ferguson.
Connections saw Deavuille Legend agonizingly beaten into 2 nd in this contest last year, and they didn’t have much luck with Land Legend either. My selection Wonder Legend perhaps found the ground too lively and lost a shoe, and I won’t be in a rush to forget his potential, but it was Land Legend who caught my eye. It went horribly wrong for Hollie Doyle’s mount at the start as he was slowly away losing four lengths. He was outpaced immediately and rousted along before eventually settling at the rear. He was the back marker until the last 3F out, where he sluiced through the field, recording the quickest furlong between 2F-1F, but he was short of room on the rail when running into his weakening stablemate, causing him to lose momentum before keeping on well once more. He remains on a mark of 89 and wherever he next goes, I’d imagine he’ll be a lot shorter than 16/1.
He has entries in the 2m Goodwood Cup as well as the Irish St. Leger which suggests he’s certainly well thought of, but I’d imagine connections will want to bag a handicap prize first if he is to go onto loftier company.
Hampton Court Stakes – Torito (4/16) – Kingman x Montare (Montjeu) – Trainer: John Gosden.
The exceptionally well bred Torito (Journey, Indigo Girl, Mimikyu) has quickly made up into a smart type himself, and should rate higher yet. He was only seen once as a two-year old which was towards the back-end of the season, suggesting he was always going to come into his own at three. He was having his third run in just over a month when a promising 4 th in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes last week. He was wide turning into the straight and hung right under the urgings of Benoit De la Sayette’s stick, which drifted him off the straight line he was initially coming through on. Once corrected and balanced, he kept on well clocking the 3 rd quickest final furlong under very minimal urgings from his jockey. A subsequent 10lbs rise to 105r means connections are in that grey area between Group Three’s and Handicaps, however he would receive a handy 3yo allowance should he take up his entry in the John Smith’s Cup at York next month.
Buckingham Palace Stakes – Silent Film (8/29) – New Approach x Dibajj (Iffraaj) – Trainer: Ian
Williams)
You could pick out a whole host of these who shaped as if they were well handicapped, but I believe Silent Film could be a shrewd purchase into the Ian Williams yard. According to the Racing Post, the ex-Godolphin/Appleby inmate had only been with the yard for eight days, and after a 118 day lay- off, I thought he ran a tremendous race to be beaten four lengths into eighth. He wasn’t granted the clearest of passages, but kept on stoutly shaping as if he could step back up to a mile. He was rated as high as 105 when with Appleby, now he’s 6lbs lower and could be a typical improver for the Williams yard.
Day Four
Albany Stakes – Komat (6/17) – Cable Bay x Tamot (Australia) – Trainer: Dominic French Davis.
On paper, the Albany could prove to work out nicely. I thought Komat bellied her odds of 66/1 and shaped well from the rear. She was outpaced, perhaps lacking the crucial turn of pace in the middle part of the race that others posed. That isn’t to say she wasn’t quick, as she picked up nicely (albeitl too late) to pass several rivals, but I do think we’ll see the best of her over 7F, which is a testament to her ability to have already won over 5F. Her dam placed over 1m4f and is full-sister to a dual winner over (incl G3) a mile.
Commonwealth Cup – Rumstar (5/13) – Havana Grey x Stellarta (Sakhees Secret) – Trainer:
Johnathan Portman.
Rumstar ran an excellent race at massive odds (80/1) in the G1 Commonwealth Cup, taking the step up in class within his stride. He broke better than last time when 5L behind Shaquille in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes, travelling very well behind the leaders and if Rob Hornby got going a bit earlier, he may have improved his final position. I think he’s a colt who will continue to go under the radar at a big price, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at Goodwood next month as he won over 6F there last year.
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Live Your Dream (3/18) – Iffraaj x Dream Book (Sea The Stars) – Trainer:
Saeed Bin Suroor.
Live Your Dream was making his 2 nd run off a monster 609 day lay-off after his below-par performance in the 2021 Cesarewitch. The bounce factor is always an issue with these types but he debunked those worries with aplomb. Danny Tudhope took the running up after four furlongs and quickened the gallop. He inevitably set the race up for one off the pace, however he did well to maintain his speed up front and keep on for 3 rd . Nothing else that raced prominent got into the race there, so his performance can be marked up further. He was put up 2lbs to a mark of 104 after that which seems reasonable enough, and further heritage handicaps beckon.
Sandringham Stakes – Cell Sa Beela (11/29) – Kingman x Sellsabeel (Galileo) – Trainer: Roger Varian.
The ‘0’ on the form of this well-bred daughter of Kingman may underestimate her chances wherever she next goes. Despite being 100/1, she made a rock solid appearance on the less favourable part of the track, where she actually hit the front 1F out before falling a victim to the near-side charge, and despite being keen she still finished 3 rd in that group of 11. As mentioned she is impeccably well bred, her unraced dam is a half-sister to wonder-mare Alpha Centauri, herself from the family of Kingmambo. She was making her reappearance there and may well strip fitter for it, I think she’ll pop up at a nice price next time out.
Day Five
Chesham Listed Stakes – Oddyssey (3/16) – Ulysses x Last Echo (Whipper) – Trainer: Patrick Owens.
I don’t think we saw the strongest renewal of the Chesham this year, but there was still some
promise in behind the Irish trained Snellen. Pat Owens’ Oddyssey defied his 125/1 odds with an
excellent 3/4L 3 rd . He was covered up perhaps for long enough, but once in the clear he picked up
nicely and made strong headway to get up for 3 rd . Ulysees hasn’t been the most natural source of
2yos thus far, nor will he likely ever be, but his most successful ones have ended up being smart
3yos. Oddyssey is out of a dual winner over 1m4f and has a stamina laden pedigree, so I would be
inclined to suggest he could make up into a smart three year old next season, and perhaps outrun
his odds wherever he ends up next this year too.
Wokingham – King’s Lynn (9/27) – Cable Bay x Kinetic (Kyllachy) – Trainer: Andrew Balding.
As mentioned earlier, Balding did not have the greatest of Ascot’s, so I’d argue those that ran well
can be upgraded slightly regardless. King’s Lynn was ran to a higher RPR (110) than he did when 3 rd in
the Wokingham behind Rohaan in 2019. He came isolated down to far-side despite the action all
coming up the centre, and it was a great effort off 2 nd top weight to be beaten just 3L. He travelled
well for the most part of the race, and it looked at one stage like he was coming with a winning run.
He’s become a tricky horse to place in recent years, but he lurks on a nice mark to be competitive
once more in these top sprint handicaps.
Albasheer (11/27) – Shamardal x Mutebah (Marju) – Trainer: Archie Watson.
Archie Watson had the winner of the Wokingham with Saint Lawrence (insert trumpet) and he could
be a revitalised force under the sprint maestro, but his mount Albasheer also caught my eye.
Although winless since debut for Owen Burrows, he had some smart that season (4L 6 th to St Marks
Basillica in the Dewhurst)and is still lightly raced for a five year old. Clearly he’s had his issues with
breaks of 318 and 582 days, but the first time blinkers seemed to spark a renewed interest, as
although slowly away and in rear the whole way, he recorded the quickest final furlong with a time
of 12.22s despite coming up the unfavourable near-side. He’s been dropped a pound since then, and
he’s one to watch out for next time out for Archie Watson.
Pointers elsewhere
As the spotlight was predominantly shone on Royal Ascot last week, you may have missed some smart performances elsewhere.
Saturday 13:37 Redcar: Woodleigh – Inns Of Court x Naqrah (Haatef) – Trainer: Declan Carroll.
Woodleigh is a half-sister to American Oaks winner Lady Prancelot and shaped with a considerable amount of promise himself behind the potentially smart Brave Empire. He stuck to his task well under Dale Swift despite having to change his course multiple times, shaping as if he would improve for yet another furlong.
Saturday 16:02 Redcar: Squealer – Mehmas x Sunny Hollow (Beat Hollow) – Trainer: Nigel Tinkler. Squealer had some smart two year form last season, finishing with a 3L 6 th to Commonwealth Cup 5 th Rumstar in the G3 Cornwallis Stakes. He’s taken a while to come to hand this season, but he shaped much better at Redcar last weekend under claimer Alex Jary, beaten just 3L by Russet Gold. I don’t think it’ll be long till we see him in headgear this season and certainly back over 6F, the extra 2lbs shaved off his back will be a big help and he’s now 7lbs lower than his opening mark this season.
Saturday 14:42 Newmarket: Imperial Emperor – Dubawi x Zhukova (Fastnet Rock) – Trainer: Charlie Appleby.
The boys in blue had a torrid week at Royal Ascot, but they found some solace elsewhere with Imperial Emperor who defied a penalty and maintained his unbeaten record in impressive fashion at Newmarket. James Doyle rode him like the best horse in the race and it duly showed. Visually it was taking, and he was awarded the same Timeform figure (111p) as a certain Baaeed did when winning this race in 2021.
Weekend Punts
Saturday – Newcastle 12:55 – Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Mount Athos 2pt WIN 5/1
Reverting to sprinting could be a shrewd move from connections of Mount Athos, who couldn’t quite land the odds at Thirsk in April. He showed excellent speed from the front that day before weakening 2F out to Spycatcher, who was a credible 4 th off top weight in the Victoria Cup next time out. Mount Athos did well to fend off challengers for 2 nd place, and the soft ground was perhaps to blame, not to mention he was the last one to track across to the near-side where they eventually came. He was progressive prior to that racking up a hattrick of wins including two on the AW at Kempton, but certainly hasn’t dented his reputation that much and could go well from the front for James Tate who won this contest in 2019 with Invincible Army. He’s won twice off a break so I have no qualms about his freshness, and hopefully the wind surgery he’s had in the interim has eeked out further improvement. Neil Callan is jocked up who’s formed a formidable partnership with James Tate recently (in particular when riding from the front) as their record together reads 18-8-4 (44.44%) this year alone, with a profit margin of £42.75 to a £1 stake.
Saturday – Newcastle 14:05 Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
Law Of The Sea (advised 20/1 EW Ante-post) – 12/1 0.5pt win 4 places – Nathanael Greene
20/1 0.5pt EW 4 places.
Law Of The Sea was advised at 20s EW for the column after his 2 nd to Solent Getaway in the Nell
Hook handicap at Haydock last month. He was put up a pound for that defeat, but improved on it when 4th in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last month. He had to track wide across from stall 17 to be prominent there and made excellent headway to lead two furlongs out, he looked as if he could’ve gone on to win there but ultimately set the race up for something off the pace, however still finished with running for 4 th place. He’s improved with every run for Ian Williams thus far and this looks to have been the target. He’s an AW winner at Kempton which bodes well for taking to the surface, and Ian Williams has jocked up Richard Kingscote who he has a 17.67% all time strike rate with as well as an impressive £39.97+ profit margin.
Nathanael Greene is my other play here. You may remember he was a pointer for the column after his staying on 1L 5 th at Ascot over 1m4f. The form of that has worked out well with the winner following up impressively off a 2lbs higher mark (now 7lbs higher). The son of Nathaniel was then seen staying on when 4 th over 1m6f to the subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami at Goodwood. When discussing his potential in the previous column, I noted that he will be of major interest when back wearing the cheekpieces he wore for the first time when beating subsequent G2 Yorkshire Cup winner Giavellotto at Haydock last October, which makes him look very well treated now off a mark of 88. Those pieces go back on now which is a sign of intent, and he shapes likes this new trip will suit. He’s a half-brother to two AW winner, and William Haggas has an excellent record at Newcastle – a 30% all time SR, and he is 13 win/place from 23 alone in the last twelve months.
Saturday – 12:40 Newmarket – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)
Denruth Diamond 12/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
The Godolphin trained Star Of Mystery will prove popular for favourite backers, but I do think she’s worth taking on at such short odds. She won by an impressive eleven lengths last time out, but she was ultimately flattered as the rest gave up, and there was nothing special of note in behind. Prior she was 2nd to Carla’s Way who I was very keen on for the Albany, but she was bitterly disappointing. Denruth Diamon for Rod Millman was a cosy last time out winner over in Saint-Cloud, but her form on these shores prior is of more interest. She was an eyecatching 2 3/4L 3 rd on debut to Relief Rally who was agonisingly close to winning the Queen Mary at Ascot last week. In 2 nd that day was Gaiden who subsequently bumped into Got To Love A Grey in the Listed Marygate Stakes at York, who was only 4L behind Relief Rally in the Queen Mary. Good-Firm ground may have gone against her at Windsor when only 4 th next time out, but she still ran well there and the 3 rd won since (2 nd gone in from that race) and the 2 nd was and excellent 3 rd in the Windsor Castle at the Royal meeting. Denruth Diamond will benefit from the slower conditions on Saturday, and her formlines stack up very nicely. The cheekpieces are an interesting addition, and she possesses more experience than most, and Rod Millman had the 3 rd
in this race last year.