Matthew Sutcliffe looks back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of Saturday’s action.
He’s keen on three on the Newbury card on Saturday, including two at big prices in the opener on the card – the Steventon Stakes.
Published: 4pm 19th July (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 10.15am 21st July (Equiano Springs selection added)
Pointers
14:00 York: What’s The Story (2nd/11) – Harbour Watch x Spring Fashion (Galileo) – Trainer: Richard Fahey.
What’s The Story has been a grand old servant for Keith Dalgleish over the years. With his former handler winding down his operation, it was pleasing to see him run a good race in 2nd behind Blue For You, who was typically laid out for the race by David O’Meara. Despite being with Fahey just five days, What’s The Story retained any enthusiasm he may have lost from leaving the place he’s called home for seven years, shaping as if his current mark is well within shooting range once more. Despite being nine years of age, he’s the type to pop up under the radar in some of the valuable northern handicaps towards the backend of summer, and he’s in excellent hands to do so.
15:45 York: Tashkhan (3rd/5) – Born To Sea x Tarziyna (Raven’s Pass) – Trainer: Brian Ellison.
Since finishing a credible 5th in the Melrose Handicap at York in 2021, Tashkhan’s graduation into listed/group level has been admirable without winning. He cemented his claims in lofty company when a 1 1/2L 2nd to Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot on Champions Day, leading to him beginning last season on mark of 116. Though inflated it may seem, he has still picked up some fantastic prize money for connections, finishing behind the like of Stradivarius and Kyprios. Although he has continued to come up short for win purposes in tough company, he was only just collared By Hamish and Scriptwriter in the G3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes after doing much of the donkey work up front and racing solo on the far-side. The handicapper has dropped his overall rating to 106, perhaps enabling to masquerade as a group horse in a top handicap – like the Ebor. He holds an entry in the prestigious contest at York, where his C&D record reads 533, though only beaten 1 ½ L (Melrose), 3L by Stradivarius, and 1/2L by Hamish last weekend. He holds entries in the Goodwood Cup, Lonsdale Cup and the Irish St Leger, however connections will surely be thinking of exploiting his revised mark back in a handicap, and at 25/1 I’m adding him to my Ebor portfolio.
19:30 Hamilton: Ibrahimovic (1st/7) – Le Havre x Isanous (Zamindar) – Trainer: Michael Bell.
We didn’t see Ibrahimovic as a 2yo until last November, which rather appropriately suggests he was never going to be the quickest of horses, given the man who he is named after. He opened his account in smooth enough fashion over 1m5f at Hamilton last weekend, and looks to be a stayer on the up. He was entitled to be well handicapped off a mark of 84 given he was previously 4L behind Tower Of London in a handicap at Down Royal, who was subsequently only just touched off in the G2 Bahrain Trophy Stakes last Thursday. The handicapper has only given him a 3lbs rise to 87 which may be somewhat lenient on some of his older form too. He’s a full brother the dual listed and G2 placed La Hoguette, so there’s further suspicion that 87 may underestimate him. He travelled extremely well at Hamilton, but didn’t do all that much in front except from stay on, suggesting going further up in trip wouldn’t be an issue either. What did impress me the most, was how the only part where he really quickened was when the eventual 2nd and 3rd came upsides him, which is a trait I always admire and value in a racehorse as it exemplifies their racing mind and awareness of their ‘job’.
19:45 Salisbury: Taswara (5th/8) – Tasleet x Timarwa (Daylami) – Trainer: Clive Cox.
The late gamble on Taswara suggested there was plenty more to be expected by the daughter of Tasleet, who travelled well for a long way but was perhaps hindered by the soft ground. She was previously a close 3rd on firm ground at Bath, suggesting she needs it quick to open her account. Normally a 46r filly would be anything but of interest, however she is a half-sister to Tregony for the same connections, who began her life in handicaps off a mark of 54, subsequently climbing 37lbs higher to a mark of 91. While Taswara may not have the same scope, it’s hard to envisage connections haven’t mapped out a similar career for her, and she’s one to regain interest in once back on quicker ground especially given ¾ of Tregony’s turf wins came on good-good/firm ground.
20:00 Hamilton: Lunacy (1st/12) – New Bay x Lunar Spirit (Invincible Spirit) – Trainer: Ian Jardine.
Lunacy left Ralph Beckett’s yard for just £8000 in May having failed to shine for his former connections, however Ian Jardine has wasted no time in recouping almost half of that money after the gelded son of New Bay won impressively at Hamilton on Saturday evening. By the aforementioned New Bay out of a winner over 1m2f, stepping up to that trip on soft ground was the key to unlocking the talented pedigree he has and showing it on the track. Lunacy made every yard of the running and looked inevitably about to be reeled in, but he was last off the bridle and still going very well, before finding more to hold on from Jim Goldie’s Jaminoz. He’s been put up 4lbs byy the handicapper which seems largely fair, but given his pedigree and the lack of money that came for him that day, there’s every chance he surprised connections and could have plenty of scope in his mark going forward.
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
13:50 Newbury – Bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)
LIBERTY LANE (25/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places) + DANCING MAGIC (14/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places)
Firstly, this looks a very weak renewal of the Listed Steventon Stakes and I do think the short favourite Al Aasy is vulnerable. He has won off a 262 and a 203 day break, so although this time it was significantly larger, you couldn’t possibly suggest that he was entitled to come on for the run given how alarmingly he weakened in the Fred Archer, beaten 24L. While he is a dual course winner, his form below a 1m4f trip reads 3548, so he is well worth taking on at evens. I’ll take a chance on two three year olds here, who have a fantastic win/place record in this contest the last 10 years (W2/5P/10R). I’ll begin with Liberty Lane, who looked something out of the ordinary on debut when winning by five lengths at Nottingham last October, beating the subsequently 94 rated Mr Buster. He was then sent off 9/4f on his seasonal debut in April, thought was far too keen to do himself justice and was put 3L in his place by Waipiro. He did give Waipiro 7lbs there and the pair came out level on RPR’s, and that form looks more than worthy now with Waipiro finishing 2nd in the Derby Trial at Lingfield, 6th in the Derby itself, then easily taking the G3 Hampton Court Stakes. Liberty Lane was subsequently far from disgraced in the G3 Dante Stakes at York, improving 8lbs on RPR’s there and finishing above some rated 14lbs, 13lbs, 16lbs and 20lbs higher. He carried top-weight on handicap debut in the Golden Gates Stakes at Royal Ascot last month and was a well beaten 11th, but I do think you can draw a line through that. He was once again far too keen, pulling his way to the front and weakening 2F out. Also, it could be that he prefers an easier surface which he’ll likely get this weekend. Karl Burke is 4-1-2 at Newbury this season which bodes well for the each way chances, and if he is still keen, he could get away with it on this flatter track where he can bowl along up front.
Dancing Magic is the other three year olds I’ll chance, despite his record of 0-8. Although winless, his from stacks up nicely and his rating is likely the product of his smart 2yo form. He placed in listed company behind the 111r Naval Power and was only beaten 2L in the G3 Autumn Stakes behind subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 2nd Silver Knott. He was out of his depth in the Vertem Futurity behind Auguste Rodin on final 2yo start, but didn’t look out of place in Group company on seasonal debut in the Craven Stakes In May, finishing a length behind Dante winner The Foxes. The ground may have been lively enough for Dancing Magic in the Dante when a well beaten 10th (behind Liberty Lane), however he wasn’t disgraced in the Hampton Court in a first time hood and tongue-tie. He was last the whole way and came in to the straight widest of all, forced even wider when not being allowed to switch inside, before finishing off with plenty of running. If they persist with those hold up tactics, then some of the keen goers in the race may be able to provide a good clip for Dancing Magic to settle off. Like Liberty Lane, he will receive a handy 3yo allowance and will only have 1lbs to find with the top rated Al Aasy on official ratings, taking the 8lbs swing into claim.
14:25 Newbury Mettal UK Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
POSTILEO (8/1 generally – 1pt WIN)
Six year old’s are 3 from 5 in this race and the lightly raced Postileo can enhance that record this weekend. The son of Galileo paid the price for racing in tandem with Vauban in the Copper Horse Stakes at Royal Ascot, before that one drew several lengths clear, evidently way ahead of his mark. Take Vauban out of the equation, then Postileo wasn’t disgraced by any means finishing 5L behind the Willi Mullins’ trained 2nd, another likely very ahead of his mark. The quick ground there won’t have suited Postileo either given all his wins have come with soft in the going. The form in behind Postileo is already working out in places, Scriptwriter (7th) was only just beaten a head by Hamish in the G3 John Smith’s Silver Cup last weekend, Gaasee (11th) was a possible unlucky 4th in the Old Newton Cup, and Aaddeey (12th) was 2nd to Yibir in the Listed Esher Stakes at Sandown. So Postileo’s mark of 98 looks more than workable here. Prior to Ascot, Postileo returned from a monster 562 day layoff with a comfortable success in a feature race at Hamilton in May in a race that’s thrown up five winners since, and the 2nd was only beaten a length in the consolation race for the Northumberland Plate, so I do think he’s still well treated off a mark of 98. Notably, he has an entry in the Ebor next month, so I’d imagine he’d need to go up 2/3lbs to sneak in that race assuming that is the target. To further boost the clams he’s well handicapped, prior to his gelding operation and reappearance he beat subsequent Cesarewitch 3rd Not So Sleep at Doncaster. All five previous winner of this handicap had previously been beaten over 2m4f at Ascot, whether that be the Gold Cup or the Ascot Stakes, and Postileo was beaten there in 2021. Though winless over two miles, I’ve no issue about the trip given he’s placed over it before, and he’s a 3x winner over 1m6f, keeping on each time.
15:05 Newmarket – Visit racingtv.com Handicap (Jockey Club Grassroots Sprint Series Qualifier) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80)
EQUIANO SPRINGS (9/1 generally – 2pt WIN)
Tom Tate has mastered the art of placing this son of Equiano over the years and he looks set for another success at Newmarket tomorrow. His record at the track reads 11811180, but whittle that down to six furlongs in a class four race and it reads 1111, including 1-1 on the July Course. He’s drawn a blank in four runs this season but he’s not been disgraced by any means, with his best effort a 2L 4th to Gorak at Haydock over 7F in May, who’s now rated some 19lbs higher. His trip to the Knavesmire was a dip in form as he raced far too keenly while setting a strong gallop, but the handicapper has relented on further on the back of that run dropping him 2lbs, meaning he sneaks into this 0-80 off a mark of 79, 6lbs below the mark he began on this season and 2lbs lower than his last winning mark. Now they’ve brought him back to his ideal scenario (Newmarket 6F C4), Tom Queally retains the partnership for the first time since winning on him over C&D last September which surely boasts indicates their true intentions tomorrow.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1.50 Newbury – LIBERTY LANE (25/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places) + DANCING MAGIC (14/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W 3 places)
2.25 Newbury – POSTILEO (8/1 generally – 1pt WIN)
3.05 Newmarket – EQUIANO SPRINGS (9/1 generally – 2pt WIN)
Check out our Weekend Watch podcast, which recently won ‘Best Betting Podcast 2023’ at the SBC awards. Top tipsters Andrew Mount and Kate Tracey are joined by GG’s latest recruit Matt Sutcliffe to run through the pick of the racing at Newbury and Market Rasen this weekend, as well as their picks for the Group 1 Irish Oaks at the Curragh:
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