GG’s latest recruit Matthew Sutcliffe gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of last week’s St Leger Festival, before giving his fancies for Saturday’s action.
Matt struck with 11/2 winner Liberty Lane in his St Leger column last week (advised 1pt win at 6/1) and gives a trio tips for Saturday’s action. They include one in the Ayr Gold Cup he’s keen on at a double-figure price.
Published: 12.20pm 20th September (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 11.30am 23rd September (Bulmer Bank selection added)
St Leger Festival Pointers
THURSDAY
13:15 – JUMP THE GUN (2nd/13) – Make Believe x Sound Of Guns (Acclamation) – Trainer: Ian Jardine.
We nearly got off to the perfect start to the meeting on Thursday but Jump The Gun couldn’t quite reach the always prominent Rathbone. Jardine’s Mount had dropped 16lbs in the weights this season and the first time blinkers nearly proved the oracle. He’s gone up 3lbs for his neck defeat but he’s still well handicapped off 83, and the way he travelled at Doncaster suggests he’s a winner in waiting.
13:50 – HERITAGE HOUSE (2nd/10) – Dark Angel x Global Light (Excelabration) – Trainer: James Fanshawe.
Heritage House was somewhat unlucky to be swallowed up in the dying strides after making all the running in tacky conditions. Jim Crowley was perhaps stuck in the notion of travelling too well and probably could’ve held on to the filly for longer, but she split the favourite and second favourite who both came from way off the pace having been outpaced over two furlongs, so there’s plenty reason’s to believe she’s on a nice mark going forward.
FRIDAY
13:15 – LASTING LOVE (3rd/11) – Lope De Vega x Yarrow (Sea The Stars) – Trainer: Andrew Balding.
Not much got into the race from off the pace in the Coopers Marquees EBF Maiden in the opener on Friday, with the 1st, 2nd and 4th always prominent, as well as already having the benefit of a run. The 3rds performance can be upgraded markedly on that evidence, as Lasting Love picked up nicely from midfield to stay on strongly for 3rd having raced green when popped the question. clocking the 2nd quickest final furlong. Her dam is from an extremely talented family over middle distance trips, herself a winner over 1m4f, so it’s reasonable to suggest that this daughter of Lope De Vega won’t show her best form until next year, however she is likely to break her maiden over a mile toward the back end of the season, perhaps in the Future Stayer’s Novice Stakes at Nottingham at the beginning of October.
13:15 – FLAVOR (7th/11) – Zoffany x Teeky (Daylami) – Trainer: John Butler.
The RP description “never dangerous” is synonymous with John Butler’s novices, but I thought Flavor showed a bit of ability at 100/1 and will be a handicap project going under the punters radar. By Zoffany out of a Daylami mare who didn’t win until over 1m4f and as 3yo, whatever Flavor does this year will be a bonus as she’ll undoubtedly come in top her own over a trip next season. As I mentioned, not many got involved from off the pace but she stayed on nicely having been outpaced by likely smarter, and undoubtedly better bred types than herself. Flavor was only marginally slower than the eventual winner in the final furlong, suggesting she will certainly flourish for a trip, and become a tasty punt (pun unfortunately intended) next year.
SATURDAY
13:50 – SUNWAY (2nd/5) – Galiway x Kensea (Kendargent) – Trainer: David Menuisier.
The Champagne Stakes is often a pivotal pointer towards some smart types for next season, but plenty have already crabbed the form due to the short-priced favourite Rosallion seemingly not giving his running. While there is reason to sympathise with that belief (ground, didn’t settle too well, hit by rivals whip on nose), it’s hard not to be impressed with the winner, but in particularly the 2nd. Sunway did the donkey work up front, leading and travelling well until collared a furlong out by Iberian, who likewise with Rosallion, had the benefit of a lead and some cover throughout the race. Iberian will likely be targeted at the 2000 Guineas next season on that back of that, but Sunway strikes me of one who’ll come on his own over further. He’s a full brother to Lagadere and Champions Stakes winner Sealiway which backs up that claim, and he’ll likely be kept to soft ground as he seemed to prefer it at Doncaster, as his full brother did too.
14:25 – HAYMAKER (9th/22) – Muhaarar x Squash (Pastoral Pursuits) – Trainer: Hughie Morrison.
The nearside was a graveyard in the Portland on Saturday. There were six horses who raced down this side for the first two furlongs (Makanah and Kimngrace tucked into the middle after); The Big Board (21st), Dakota Gold (20th), Tees Spirit (17th), Makanah (16th), Kimngrace (15th), and Haymaker (9th). As you can tell, Haymaker fared the best of those by some way, beaten five lengths having been prominent throughout and disputing the lead 2F out. We can upgrade that performance significantly, and he strikes me as one of those late blooming sprinters who improves with the experience of being amongst these competitive handicaps. Given his course and distance 2nd to Popmaster in July, hopefully we see him in the 6F handicap at Ascot on Friday 5th October.
16:45 – GOD’S WINDOW (1st/10) – Dubawi x Perfect Clarity (Nathaniel) – Trainer: John & Thady Gosden.
God’s Window was quicker throughout the last two furlongs than any of those in the proceeding C2 mile handicap on the card won by the 97r Liberty Lane, which although is subject to the difference in how the finish of each race evolved, it gives us a clear indicator that the Gosden’s treated us to a potentially nice type on debut. It was a comfortable success for God’s Window, who hit the front under relatively little urging from Kieran Shoemark, before merely being pushed out to success. The next three home had all either raced prominently and/or on the nearside, so given he possibly overcame somewhat of a draw/pace bias further suggests it was a smart debut. John & Thady Gosden won this race last year with Israr who recorded a 2lbs lower RPR than God’s Window, but is now rated 115 after beating Adayar in the G2 Princess Of Wales Stakes in July, which gives us even more of an indicator as to the potential of God’s Window.
SUNDAY
14:25 – ZOUKY (2nd/8) Zoustar x Kerry’s Dreams (Tobougg) – Trainer: Philip McBride.
Not many got into the race from off the pace here, with Poet Master and Dark Thirty making the ruling together and finishing 1st/3rd respectively. Sam James gave the winner a fantastic ride on the front end with that one appreciating the drop in trip, but Buick might want his back. You could argue that its was the way the filly needed to be ridden and simply didn’t get the pace collapse, but in that case ideally Zouky wanted to be closer to the pace to give her a chance of making up ground in the latter stages. Ultimately the winner had flown and looks a smart prospect too, but Zouky improved again on her win last time out and is a filly to keep onside, particularly if granted a strong pace on a track favouring those held up.
16:45 – CHARMING WHISPER (2nd/6) Charm Spirit x Natsovia (Nathaniel) – Trainer: Philip McBride.
Similarly to the 14:25, the preceding curtain closer of the St Leger meeting favoured the longtime leader, making all with some ease under Connor Beasley. We can upgrade the 2nd, Charming Spirit, who was held up and ridden to get the trip on his first go over a mile, and stayed on fairly well. The 2nd was quicker than the winner between 6f-3f and 2-1f, but the ground made from 8f-6f saw Charming Spirit at a big disadvantage already. The winner appeared to benefit from a fresher strip of the track in the last couple furlongs, while the 2nd came down the tacky middle, and t’s worth keeping Charming Whisper on board for next time out, and a drop back to 7F would suit.
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
13:15 Ayr – Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
SAFE VOYAGE (7/1 generally – 1pt win) *NOT DECLARED*
Jason Hart is also jocked up on connections’ Titan Rock, so I’m playing this safe incase the ante post curse strikes and that one is declared over Safe Voyage. If I could 100% say Safe Voyage will be declared here (though I see no other reason why not), then the advised points would be raised.
Firstly, he’s not getting any younger but he’s still proved himself to be capable of running to a good level as a ten year-old. He had the field strung out when taking a Class 3 around Chester last time out, breaking slowly and having to come from the rear. The forms worked out as the 2 1/2L 2nd has gone in since now rated 7lbs higher, and the 7L 4th went in next time out over C&D now rated 5lbs higher. So although Safe Voyage is back up in class and has gone up 5lbs for his troubles, he’s still feasibly treated on the Chester run and he was 4th in the Balmoral off this mark last year. He’s raced at 7F for the majority of his career, however this season he’s more often than not suggested that he has a win in him over a mile. He was only beaten a length at Thirsk over a mile in May off top weight, giving 15lbs to the 2nd who’s rated 6lbs higher now and 5lbs to the winner who’s rated 11lbs higher. Safe Voyage wasn’t stopping at the line there, and he was set a lofty task in the Victoria Cup when a bet for the column a week later. The form of that race has worked out ridiculously well, he was a head in front of Baradar who’s won twice since and is now 8lbs higher, Spycatcher was 1/2L in from of him who’s now 4lbs higher after a G3 win and G1 2nd, and he was only 3/4L behind Biggles who won the Bunbury Cup and is now rated 5lbs higher. Not to mention the likes of Perotto, Rhoscolyn and Darkness who have gone in since too, Safe Voyage looks to be on a fine mark despite him being 3lbs higher than that run, and we can forgive his 18th in the Moet & Chandon International where the good ground might not have been ideal, and he was butchered over a furlong out and inevitably weakened (though there’s winners come from around him since).
The forecast soft ground will aid his cause at Ayr, where he’s 1-1 when completing (UR the other time), and five of his wins have come when backing up another. His top RPR’s have come around this time of year, and even if he replicates his Victoria Cup 5th, that should be enough to take this 0-100.
14:40 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)
CERTAIN LAD (8/1 generally – 1pt win)
Certain Lad has a consistent record in 1m2f handicaps (42113062, excluding 1m2 1/2) and shaped like a return to the winners enclosure was imminent last time out behind Dual Identity, who was laid out for the contest. He was also a pointer for the column afterwards, where I noted “Channon’s mount sweated up in the preliminaries and George Bass never got him in a rhythm throughout the race, having led early before being reigned back into midfield…Despite those unfavourable exertions, he was able to finish well down the outside for 2nd, clocking the quickest final furlong of the field and posting the best RPR of the contest (108)”. Those notes apply for my reasoning here, as the performance can certainly be upgraded and given all his wins in the UK have come on a left-handed, galloping track, then his first visit to Newbury will likely suit. He’s 6lbs below his reappearance this year, and his 2L 3rd over 1m2f at Chester in May has worked out given the winner is rated 8lbs higher after taking the John Smith’s Cup off 106 in July.
York 15:10 Happy 60th Birthday Angela Clark Nursery Handicap (Class 3) (2yo 0-95)
BULMER BANK (5/1 generally – 1.5pt win)
A later selection than usual for the column, but it would be against my morals not to tip a selection from my beloved Knavesmire especially as I’m going today. Emperor’s Star looks well worth taking on at the top of the market, he doesn’t look thrown in off a mark of 91 given the two he beat at Chelmsford last time out were both well beaten in the same contest at Doncaster last time out, and he was a beaten favourite in the mud at Sandown before that. I’ll be confidently taking him on with Bulmer Bank, who despite being a pound out of the weights on nursery debut, still looks chucked in off a mark of 70 and Adam Farragher takes off a healthy 3lbs. He was an eyecatcher on debut at Pontefract when denied a run multiple times before staying on very well to be beaten 5L, the 8th is rated 74 despite still being winless, the 7th won next time out and is rated 85, the 6th has won twice since and is now rated 84, the 4th won last time out now rated 83, and the winner’s also rated 83. He was more professional at Nottingham next time out when beaten just three lengths into 6th, with the 11th 78r, 10th 75r, 9th, 8th, 7th, 4th (80r) all winning next time out, and the 3rd took a novice here last time out now 86r. Bulmer Bank was then sent to the valuable Convivial maiden, beaten 6L into 10th again without a smooth passage, and that form has also worked out very well, with the yards 7th winning next time out beating the 5th, the 6th winning and 3rd both winning nto. I’ve no idea where the handicapper has plucked a mark of 69 from for Bulmer Bank, but on all known form he looks chucked in and the ground doesn’t appear to be an issue given those first two starts were on G/S.
15:35 Ayr – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
ROHAAN – (14/1 generally – 1pt E/W five places)
Rohaan was 20/1 for the Ayr Gold Cup when a pointer for the column last week, and he’s shortened a tad since but well worth a play now with the intention seemingly to go here. You can argue he’s not had the rub of the green this season, though cynics would suggest his 13lbs drop in the weights is intentional for the purpose of landing a big pot as opposed to a reflection of being regressive. If the former is the case, then it’s not a masterful ‘plot’ given he’s officially 4lbs wrong at the weights, however it’s highly likely that he’s better than 104 regardless, so I’m not letting that put me off too much. His 6th in the G1 Sprint Cup last time out can be upgraded as he was without room two furlongs out and Neil Callan wasn’t the most animated in the saddle that day. The form has been boosted as Annaf, who was 3L in front, took the Portland off 106 last weekend. Rohaan was also 4L behind Sandrine (gave 4L) in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last month who took the G2 Park Stakes in good style last week. He’ll get a good pace to aim at here which is what he needs, and his record in 6F handicaps reads 1121511, so the return to this scenario for this first time since his Wokingham win off 109 (top-weight, comfortable) last year will suit too.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1.15 Ayr – SAFE VOYAGE (1pt win – 7/1 generally) *NOT DECLARED*
2.40 Newbury – CERTAIN LAD (1pt win – 8/1 generally)
3.10 York – BULMER BANK (1.5pt win – 5/1 generally)
3.35 Ayr – ROHAAN (1pt E/W five places – 14/1 generally)
Matt Sutcliffe’s tip for Saturday 23rd September 2023.
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