Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through the horses to take out of Cheltenham’s November meeting, before giving his value bets to back in this weekends racing.
He gives three tips for Saturday’s action, including his pick in the Premier Handicap at Haydock.
Published: 1.15pm 22nd November (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 3:30pm 24th November (Kamsinas selection added)
Last Week’s Pointers
FRIDAY
1.10 Cheltenham – High Stakes (5/20) – Scorpion x High Performer (Bob Back) – Trainer: Warren Greatrex.
High Stakes was deeply disappointing over fences last time out, emphasising how point-to-point winners aren’t guaranteed to translate that experience under rules. However, he took a big step forward from his 291 day lay-off at Cheltenham on Friday with a gallant front running fifth in a race where the front two pulled six lengths clear after racing in midfield. Given chasing clearly isn’t his forte, he’s well handicapped off 117 over hurdles and will be of interest next time out with that run under his belt.
1.45 Cheltenham – Walk In Clover (3/11) – Walk In The Park x Bridgequarter Girl (Presenting) – Trainer: Dan Skelton.
Walk In Clover put in an excellent leap at the last, landing a length in front of the four she was going into the fence with, and coming home well for third after racing in the rear. Both of her wins over fences have come over further (2m4f, 3m 1/2f) and all three of her career wins have come in mares company, so I’ll look to back her when returning to a race containing the conditions after she posted a career best RPR last time out.
2.55 Cheltenham – Didero Vallis (3/13) – Poliglote x Oreade Vallis (April Night) – Trainer: Venetia Williams.
You know it’s Venetia Williams’ time of year when she has one previously beaten 31L and 34L prior to pulling up twice, finish 3rd in the Cross Country at Cheltenham running to an RPR of 130 from 19lbs out of the weights. These types of races fascinate me as ratings can often be chucked out of the window and it simply goes down to which horses enjoy the unique test the most. Didero Vallis, in theory, had a mammoth task from 19lbs out of the weights on his first go in the Cross Country discipline, but he gave an excellent account of himself despite being outpaced after the sharp fence five out. He predominantly raced just off the tails of the impressive Foxy Jacks, jumping and travelling well in the main but once the pace lifted Charlie Deutsch wasn’t all that keen in getting him involved in the latter stages, presumably as to not knock him about too hard after his recent poor displays. However, after originally drifting back to third last and looking in danger of adding a third letter to his form, Didero Vallis came from eight before the last fence to rally for third up the straight, an eye-catching performance nonetheless. I’d imagine connections will keep him in mind for these type of races, but given he’s back in good health, I’d keep him onside in the more conventional staying races once he gets his softer preferred ground.
3.30 Cheltenham – Moonovercloon (5/8) – Sea Moon x Fiery Flame (Luso) – Trainer: Matthew J Smith.
Very rarely does Harry Cobden get it wrong, but on this occasion I thought his decision to race three wide throughout up top paved the way for Adam Wedge on Minella Missile, who kept to the inner held up throughout before coming across to join The Big Doyen and Captain Teague up the straight, where perhaps finishing on that side of the track aided his cause. I tend to become frustrated when I see a jockey riding wide in search of better ground throughout, as I question to what extent it actually pays dividends? For the most part, horses race at a very similar pace throughout the early-middle part of a race whether they’re positioned at the front or several lengths behind, and I’ve always thought those who save ground on the rail early on in rear will more often than not have the upper hand in the finish, when the part of the track becomes more of an important factor as the pace lifts, which was theorised by the finish between Captain Teague and Minella Missile. I wouldn’t write off Captain Teague on the back of that effort, though it does look like he already wants three miles. I was more taken with the effort of the 127r (131 GB mark) Moonovercloon, who came there absolutely swinging three out, putting his nose in front at one stage. He weakened very quickly, but he looked to hit the top of the hurdle fairly hard with his front to legs and I just wonder whether he stopped himself after that. He was entitled to weaken out of things against some promising unexposed types, but he travelled all over them at one stage and will be of interest dropping back into handicaps on a sharp, right handed track.
4.05 Cheltenham – Belgoprince (7/17) – Prince Gilbraltar x Zongoraora (Bering) – Trainer: Tony Martin.
The well supported Belgoprince was in the process of giving his backers a solid run for their money when travelling best of all before the last hurdle, before clattering into it and losing all momentum. Whether he would’ve had the finishing kick to match the three who pulled clear on the far side remains open to question, but he’s clearly a well handicapped horse judging by that first run over hurdles since 2021 and shouldn’t be underestimated next time out, particularly if they travel over with him again.
SATURDAY
12.35 Cheltenham – An Bradan Feasa (2/11) – Camelot x Grianan Ailigh (Shantou) – Trainer: Jack Jones.
Burdett Road looks a serious tool having stormed up the Cheltenham hill after a rail saving ride from rear and will deservedly take all the plaudits (subsequently vying for Triumph favouritism), but the effort from the second An Bradan Feasa shouldn’t be swept under the carpet, and if anything, his 13lbs lower RPR than the favourite underestimates his performance. He set some quick fractions up top under keen grip, but jumped with aplomb barely touching a twig. He kicked clear on the turn drawing three lengths clear and was perhaps entitled to slow down up the run in, but he still galloped all the way to the line and was likely overshadowed by the pace of the ex-smart flat horse Burdett Road. With the winner bound for the Triumph, I think connections would be mad not to send this son of Camelot (from the family of the smart Kalashnikov) to the Boodles as his opening mark will likely underestimate his ability, which he certainly has in abundance.
1.10 Cheltenham – Blame The Game (9/16) – Darsi x Lucy Walters (King’s Ride) – Trainer: Chris Gordon.
Blame The Game was agonisingly beaten a neck in the Sussex National off 110 last season and he looks to be headed that way for a return crack at the crown. Having shown his best form on either sharp or flat tracks, the galloping nature of Cheltenham seemingly didn’t suit him having been outpaced once the leaders quickened up and he looked in danger of tailing off at one stage, but he finished with plenty of running and still jumped the last two fences well, suggesting he was being kept for another day which will no doubt be Plumpton in January.
2.20 Cheltenham – Easy As That (6/14) – Sans Frontieres x Bell Storm (Glacial Storm) – Venetia Williams.
Easy As That was given a chance of anything but his namesake in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but fared much better than his 21L deficit suggests. The race favoured those on the front end, with the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all noted to have been ‘prominent’, and the 3rd (Il Ridoto) was at the head of those in midfield. The finishing position of those who raced either in rear or midfield read PU, PU, 54L 10th, 52L 9th, 39L 8th, 31L 7th, so Easy As That’s 21L 6th can certainly be upgraded. It was hard to peg back the leaders once the going turned soft and tacky, so the rear was the worst place to be, but Charlie Deutsch persevered with Easy As That and the late headway he made from two out suggests that his mark of 141 isn’t beyond him, and he’ll surely come on bundles for the run.
2.55 Cheltenham – Chantry House (3/15) – Yeats x The Last Bank (Phardante) – Trainer: Nicky Henderson.
In hindsight, I was maybe naive not to select Chantry House as an each-way selection last weekend, as I’m sure the yard will have been more concerned about him simply finishing his race off as opposed to going all out to win. That said, Nico was very tender on him throughout and the others who raced in rear throughout pulled up (x2) and beaten 77L, so he was set a stiff task trying to catch the leaders on that sticky ground. Chantry House jumped and travelled like a dream even if there was little intention of taking the contest, and perhaps sticking down hurdles will be the sensible decision this season. There is still several Pertemps qualifiers left this season, and I think connections would be mad not to utilise his insultingly low hurdles mark for that contest in March.
3.30 Cheltenham – Gyenyame (2/9) – Nathaniel x Lizzie Tudor (Tamayuz) – Trainer: Joe Tizzard.
Gyenyame was outpaced on the turn for home having raced in second throughout, but after weakening out of contention, Brendan Powell’s perseverance paid off as he rallied well back up for second behind the smart favourite. That experience in a contest of that nature will have helped him mentally and a 2lbs subsequent rise largely underestimates him.
3.30 Cheltenham – Tiger Jet (3/9) – Jet Away x Just A Moment (Bob Back) – Trainer: Brian Ellison
In the same contest, Harry Cobden attempted a Burdett Road-esque performance on Tiger Jet, who came from the best part of twenty lengths behind to finish just a length behind Springwell Bay. Pulled up on his previous start, it looked a similar fate but Cobden managed to get as sweet tune out of him and he powered home. He was 1.36 seconds quicker than the winner through the last four furlongs and a mark of 117 might not be beyond him, hopefully we’ll see him targeted in the staying hurdle series once more.
SUNDAY
2.20 Cheltenham – Guetapan Collonges (3/13) – Saddler Maker x Saturne Collonges (Dom Alco) – Trainer: Charlie Longsdon.
Jumping is the name of this game and it’s often let Guetapan Collonges down, but this season he’s looked much more assured over his fences as when taking a 10K pot at Carlisle in October, before a solid staying on 3rd in the Jewson Handicap at Cheltenham. He was outpaced there before gaining a second wind up the straight, and he’s a progressive stayer to keep onside.
3.30 Cheltenham – Nemean Lion (5/15) – Golden Horn x Ninfea (Selkirk) – Trainer: Kerry Lee.
Sporting the famous JP McManus silks, Iberico Lord looked a very well handicapped horse when taking the greatwood in facile style on Sunday, and I was also pleased with one of my horses to follow, Lookaway, running a gallant race from the front on second. But it was the 5th, Nemean Lion, who caught my eye having raced unfavourably in rear, and in turn set a mammoth task trying to make ground off top-weight in conditions that were hard work for the jockeys. Interestingly, Nemean Lion ran to an RPR of 145 there which was the highest in the contest, and he’ll be of more interest on either a flatter/sharper track next time out.
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
12:05 Haydock – Betfair Racing Podcasts Newton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
KAMSINAS (1.5pt win – 10/3 generally)
Kamsinas was a pointer for the column last time out at Cheltenham when finishing second to Lookaway in the Grade Two Sharp Novices Hurdle, where I noted “It paid to race on the front end…with the 1st, 3rd and 4th noted to have either ‘made all’, ‘raced in second’, or ‘in touch with leaders”. Kamsinas was possibly unfavored being held up on that evidence, and it can be tough to peg back the leaders at Cheltenham when they get in a rhythm, so his performance there can be upgraded, even more so given Lookaway was beaten two lengths into second after making all in the Greatwood last weekend off a mark of 132, recording an RPR of 142. Kamsinas has been given an official rating of 128, and I don’t think he’d have to be much better than a 130 horse to take this contest, which his owners won with Tahmuras last season en-route to the Tolworth.
It’s a long way home up the straight at Haydock so you wouldn’t want to be doing too much up front, and with every one of these having either ‘made all,’, been ‘prominent’ or ‘in touch with leaders’ last time out, they’re likely to go a solid enough pace and which will benefit Kamsinas if held up once more. He brings the best form into the race with the likes of Bowenspark and Primoz having only won novice’s last time out and the left handed nature of Haydock will aid his cause as he won that way around Worcester/Kelso and hung slightly left up the straight at Cheltenham. Fergal O’Brien’s yard are typically going well and his record in non-handicaps at the course reads 5-2-4 over the last five seasons.
2:20 Haydock Betfair ‘Serial Winners’ Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
CARBON KING (0.5pt E/W four places -66/1 generally)
It’s been a while since I’ve thrown up a selection at these odds, but I think there could be more to come from Carbon King despite being pulled up last time out. Normally I wouldn’t chance one of the back of an effort like that, but Evan Williams won this contest with Dans Le Vant in 2021, who was also hiked up a mile in trip having finished 2nd in the Welsh Champion Hurdle over 2m on reappearance. Coincidentally (or not?), Carbon King was also sent to that race on his seasonal reappearance/yard debut, and wasn’t entirely disgraced beaten 20L behind Greenwood 4th Nemean Lion, recording an RPR of 119, his 2nd career best. As he’s following the same pathway as Dans Le Vent, Evan Williams surely thinks he’s a stayer so I can forgive him for pulling up over a two miles at Ascot last time out, which turned into a speed influenced, gruelling contest.
He’s been dropped 7lbs in two races since joining Evan Williams, meaning he races from just a pound above his Irish Mark, and he has one piece of form in particular that suggests he’s far better than 126. At Limerick in January, he went up 13lbs for a twelve length win off top weight, where he easily swept aside second placed Buddy One, who is subsequently rated 43lbs higher having finished 2nd at Thurles in a G2, 3rd in the Martin Pipe, 2nd in a G3 at Aintree, and latterly winning the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last weekend. Carbon King beat Buddy One over 2m5f at Limerick, which takes some getting on soft ground, so although he’s unraced over further, he very much shapes as if three miles won’t be an issue, and Dans Le Vent was 0-5 over 3m before taking this race in 2021 for the yard.
3:15 Ascot Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)
SAINT SEGAL (1pt win – 9/2 generally)
It could be a long old season for myself following Saint Segal, but he was a massive eye-catcher last time out over course and distance in the G3 Byrne Group Handicap Chase. Having pulled his way to the front under David Noonan, he was in the process of jumping the field into submission but his keenness eventually paved the way for those who sat tight a few lengths off him. I was impressed with the way in which he kept on and rallied for 3rd, suggesting he almost certainly needed the run and that he still has plenty of room for manoeuvre of his mark, which has dropped a pound. With that run under his belt, and reappearing second time up from a wind op, I’d expect to have come soon massively for the run and if Noonan can keep a lid on him early doors, he should have solid enough pace to aim at from rear with the likes of Corrigeen Rock and Aucunrisque going forward.
3:35 Haydock Betfair “Free Racing Multiple Today” Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
DR KANANGA (0.5pt E/W – 25/1 Bet365, 20/1 generally) *NOT DECLARED*
The yard form would have to a mild concern here for Dr Kananga, but they have to begin with a win somewhere and hopefully it comes in the form of the well handicapped Dr Kananga. Firstly, his record after a break (including P2P) reads 121244312127 so now may be the time to catch him. He reappeared last season after a wind op with a 9L 2nd to Maximilian over hurdles, who boosted that form significantly with a 3rd in the Ballymore Winter Novices’ G2 at Sandown, a win in the G2 River Don and a 2nd in the G1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. Prior to that, Dr Kananaga looked a chaser to follow in early 2022 having beaten a three time subsequent winner in Wayfinder by twelve lengths over 3m2f on soft ground at Chepstow, before beaten Poppa Poutine by the same margin off 12lbs higher. He gave a good amount of himself when a clear 2nd (3rd was 33L back) off 10lbs higher to Eva’s Oskar, who subsequently finished 2nd in the Jewson Handicap before taking the G3 Dahlbury Chase off 140.
Dr Kanaga’s form has tailed off since bar that 2nd to Maximilian (though was set tasks in the Becher, G2 Prestige, Kim Muir) but has dropped to a very handy mark of 128, and given he’s won by 12L off 125 and finished second to Eva’s Oskar off 135, that mark should be no issue. Soft ground is key to his performance and he’ll get that this weekend, and he should run a nice race from the front if getting into a rhythm.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
12.05 Haydock – KAMSINAS (1.5pt win – 10/3 generally)
2.20 Haydock – CARBON KING (0.5pt E/W four places -66/1 generally)
3.15 Ascot – SAINT SEGAL (1pt win – 9/2 generally)
3.35 Haydock – DR KANANGA (0.5pt E/W – 25/1 Bet365, 20/1 generally) *NOT DECLARED*
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.