It’s Trials Day from Cheltenham this weekend, and our early value man Matty Sutcliffe has already got his keen eye on two selections. They include one from the Cotswold Chase, the big prep for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Updated: 9:20am 26th January (Odds correct at time of publication)
SATURDAY
1:15 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Premier
Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Easy As That 10/1 1pt WIN
EASY AS THAT is relatively unexposed for a nine-year-old and has long threatened to land a big pot after multiple facile wins over fences for Venetia Williams. The son of Sans Frontieres is 5/11 under rules, and was a pointer for the column when staying on from way back in rear in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over 2m4f on the old course win November. Though beaten 21L, he was never put in the race by Charlie Deutsch from a 252-day layoff, but shaped with plenty of promise considering the finishing position of those who raced either in rear or midfield read PU, PU, 54L 10th, 52L 9th, 39L 8th, 31L 7th, so Easy As That’s 21L 6th can certainly be upgraded.
He was then well backed from 1lb out of the weights when upped to 3m2f here last month, where he returned to the prominent tactics used when bolting up at Newcastle over this distance last February. Having raced wide throughout, he was still firmly on the bridle four out before getting that fence wrong and weakened before hampered by Malina Girl coming down. Charlie Deutsch wasn’t hard on him once the chance had gone and I though he looked a massive non-stayer at the distance. I’m happy enough to draw a line through that, and he’s a big player down in distance to a trip we know firmly suits.
The last eight winners of this contest either led, tracked leaders or made all, and had previous course form (three of the last nine had raced here lto), so providing they stick to those prominent tactics then he fits the mould of a typical winner of this contest. He’s 4lb below his opening seasonal mark and this is his only entry over the weekend, so we can presume he’ll certainly take it up with Deutsch jocked up. We had Ramo agonisingly beaten for Venetia last weekend, and she wasn’t in the greatest of form, but since then she’s had three winners and a second from eight runners (at the time of writing) so hopefully she’s come out of the other end of a brief flat spot.
1:50 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
The Real Whacker 7/2 1pt WIN
It feels as though it’s ‘last chance saloon’ territory with THE REAL WHACKER, who I rather naively backed for the column in the November Paddy Power Gold Cup when pulling up rather swiftly. In hindsight, top weight off a 248-day layoff over a trip likely to sweep him off his feet wasn’t a clever punt, but there were credible excuses that day as he was both lame and struck into on his right fore.
Though beaten ten lengths in the King George, I actually thought it was a massive performance considering his run/injury at Cheltenham last time out. His three wins in novice company last season all came from the front, so being held up around a sharp track like Kempton in arguably his hottest company yet was unlikely to suit. His jumping wasn’t foot perfect there, unsurprisingly as they went a good enough gallop, but he stayed on all the way to the line suggesting that this return to a stamina laden trip on the New Course will suit him perfectly. He still posted a joint career best RPR of 163 there, the same as what Royal Pagaille did when second in the contest last season.
While Royal Pagaille was impressive in dismantling Bravemansgame at Haydock, he is notoriously known as a Haydock specialist and I’d be concerned about his record on the New course at Cheltenham which reads 6th (24L), 5th (18L), 6th (49L). That said, they were in the Gold Cup proper so perhaps I shouldn’t judge him too harshly, but if The Real Whacker gets into a rhythm out in front then he could once again be tough to pass in last season’s Browns-esque fashion.
I do still think The Real Whacker doesn’t get enough credit for his Festival win last season, as plenty focused on the ‘bad’ ride on Gerri Colombe. But even if those placings were reversed, he’d have lost nothing in defeat that day and he still had the likes of the subsequent Irish National winner I Am Maximus, Warwick Classic 2nd Galia Des Liteaux, and Fairyhouse Gold Cup winner Sir Gerhard in behind. The smaller field will suit here and Sam Twiston-Davies looks set to be given a bit of a freebie up top, and a reproduction of that King George run should see him go very well given these are his prime conditions.
Regarding the others, while I applaud Paul Nicholls for giving Stay Away Fay a chance in here, from a punting perspective I’d be concerned about backing him first time up in open company and he’s got 12-13lb to find with The Real Whacker and Royale Pagaille respectively. Last year’s winner Ahoy Señor has looked a shadow of his former self, failing to complete in three of his four starts since and I’m amazed connections are persevering over fences. The 5/1 is awfully short considering you’re purely relying on faith he has a clear round. Datsalrightgino is another who’s skinny enough at 5s as he takes the leap back out from handicap company, and for all he was given an excellent ride by Gavin Sheehan last time out, the race panned out well for him.
Willie Mullins’ record here outside the Festival is enough to temper enthusiasm with Capodanno, though if he does turn up then collateral form with Gerri Colombe/I Am Maximus last time out suggests he won’t have much to find with The Real Whacker.
12:40 Cheltenham – Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+)
Prairie Wolf 20/1 (generally) 0.5pt EW (3 places, 4 bet365)
This typically competitive looking Novices’ handicap was won last season by the subsequent Turners winner Stage Star, and favourite (at the time of writing) Ginny’s Destiny has a similar profile. The son of Yeats was possibly lucky to beat Grey Dawning last time out after the latter made a race-ending mistake, but still looks potentially well handicapped off 147 given the two behind him have subsequently won/placed in G2 company. However, Stage Star was the only winning favourite of this contest in the last ten renewals and I don’t quite think Ginny’s Destiny has the potential of a Stage Star so is worth taking on at the top of the market.
Seven-year-olds have taken six of the ten renewals of this typically competitive renewal and Prairie Wolf for Sue Smith is one of just three. Sue Smith has found quality horses hard to come by in recent years, especially after the sad passing of Midnight Shadow who was was a three time winner here. It was quite fitting to see PRAIRIE WOLF break his maiden the same day as Midnight Shadow’s passing, and I’m hoping he can continue to rise through the ranks for Sue Smith after an impressive win over fences last time out.
While he has plenty to find on form with those to the fore of the market, I’d be inclined to suggest they’re weighted not too far off their peak novice ability and I just wonder whether off bottom weight, Prairie Wolf could spring a surprise. Regular readers of the column will know how highly I rate the gelding having featured in my top ten to follow at the start of the season, and although he jumped poorly on chase debut, he certainly made amends for that with a foot perfect round at Doncaster next time out. Prairie Wolf didn’t touch a twig there and improved for a prominent pitch, going clear after two out and winning eased right down, with a 6lbs rise potentially underestimating that performance. The third has since won cosily going up 7lbs and some of the placed horses have gone well. In time I’d imagine he’ll get three miles so it’s perhaps a clue in itself that they’ve gone here as opposed to there weaker option of a 3m novice chase handicap at Doncaster, a course he clearly loves with his record there reading 1321.
Sue Smith tends not to waste her runners at Cheltenham in recent years, with her record with handicap chases here reading 9-2-5 (£39.00+) in the last five seasons and the booking of Charlie Deutsch is a huge positive, with him having his first ride for the yard.
3:15 Doncaster – Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Charlie Uberalles 66/1 0.5pt EW 5 places (6 William Hill)
In the last ten renewals of this contest there’s been just one winner returning an SP shorter than 8/1. We’ve had 16/1, two 40/1’s and a 25/1, so this is just type of race to look for those underestimated in the market and CHARLIE UBERALLES could be another. The lightly raced son of Geordieland made a winning promising return to action over hurdles after missing all of last season, finishing behind a pair of promising novices who were sent into G2 company at Cheltenham next time out, with the winner finishing a pleasing enough 4th. That was a nice pipe opener to go back over fences for Sayer’s mount proving he retains ability, and we can easily forgive him for pulling up in the Welsh Grand National in attritional conditions.
With conditions looking set to be good ground on Saturday, he’s slightly overlooked given he’s even exclusively raced on the going, notching up two second and two wins from six efforts in 2022. While it’s risky backing one who missed last year, he could be well handicapped on multiple bits of form from that season. He gamely beat Hereditary Rule for John McConnell who’s since took a 53k handicap at Punchestown off 129, and when he won at Perth in September 2022 he had the now 146r Gevrey in behind who’s since finished 4th in the Plate Handicap, second in the Irish Grand National and won the G3 Munster National off 138.
He’s an unusual type as both of his wins came right handed at Perth but he often jumps left, so I’d imagine Doncaster will suit as will his prominent style of racing. While this is obviously a chancy enough punt, those formlines suggest he could still have some untapped potential with conditions to suit, and the yard/jockey combination are profitable (£21.54+) to follow all time.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1:15 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Premier
Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Easy As That 10/1 1pt WIN
1:50 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – The Real Whacker 7/2 1pt WIN
12:40 Cheltenham – Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Prairie Wolf 20/1 (generally) 0.5pt EW (3 places, 4 bet365)
3:15 Doncaster – Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Charlie Uberalles 66/1 0.5pt EW 5 places (6 William Hill)
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