Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through the horses to take out of last weekends action, before giving his value bets to back in this weekends racing.
Matt continues to be in excellent form, having tipped up 16/5 winner Kamsinas (advised at 10/3) in last weeks column, and gives __ selections to follow this weekend. He also gives a couple of ante-post tips for later on this season, including one he’s keen on at a big price in the Gold Cup!
Published: 1.55pm 29th November (Odds correct at time of publication)
Last Week’s Pointers
FRIDAY
12:15 Ascot – Ideal Des Bordes (3/10) – Coastal Path x Carmen Des Bordes (Network) – Trainer: Nicky Henderson.
You don’t need me to tell you that we probably saw two smart types draw fifteen lengths clear of the field at Ascot in the opener on Friday, but I did think there was plenty of promise to take out of the third placed Ideal Des Bordes. By Coastal Path out of a French Network mare, good ground hurdling isn’t the sphere he’s particularly bred for. Though he jumped well throughout on hurdles debut, he was keen enough on his first start since May and weakened up the run in once the front two pulled clear. Nico wasn’t overly animated in the saddle once he knew his winning chance had gone, but he was still able to make two places after that last against two who’d been applied with significantly more pressure. He’ll have come on for that run, and he looks a stayer in the making to me who should improve for a fence and softer ground in time.
14:00 Ascot – Copperhead (3/8) – Sulamani x How’s Business (Josr Algarhoud) – Trainer: Joe Tizzard.
Copperhead is certainly a cliff horse for most. Having last won in February 2020 when taking the G2 Sodexo by seventeen lengths, it’s safe to say he’s a shadow of him former self, having failed to complete five of his subsequent sixteen starts, and only ever coming within ten lengths of the winner in two of those. Horses like they tend to acquire the ‘gone at the game’ tag and while he’s certainly regressive, I do think he still has a win in his after his staying on 3rd at Ascot on Friday. He jumped well in the main but was crucially outpaced there out, dropping five lengths away from the pack turning for home and it looked as if another letter to his form was on the cards, but Freddie Gingell’s perseverance paid off as he found a second wind to rally past horses, putting in an outstanding leap at the last and finishing within two lengths of the second Flegmatik. Copperhead clocked the quickest final furlong there and the addition of a tongue-tie looked to help him finish off his race. He hasn’t been seeing out trips ranging from 3m-3m6f recently, but with the help of that aid it he may be able to build on that promising run last time out and return to the winners enclosure over three miles.
14:15 Chepstow – Midnight Ginger (2/9) – Midnight Legend x Calamintha (Mtoto) – Trainer: Anthony Martin
Midnight Ginger is a likeable mare for Anthony Martin and bumped into a progressive type at Chepstow on Friday going down by a short head, giving away more than a stone to the winner. She won second time up last season and in 2021, and with her record the month of December reading 11531, she can be confidently backed next time out if the ground stays dry this winter.
14:35 Ascot – Jilajone (3/6) – Walzertakt x Alauda (Great Pretender) – Trainer: David Pipe.
ANTE-POST SELECTION – *Betfair Exchange Trophy – Jilajone 25/1.*
Jilajone was a pointer for the column two starts ago when second to Blueking D’Oroux at Cheltenham in October and I noted how a trip to the Betfair Exchange Trophy could be on the agenda, but he’d be lucky enough to sneak in there off a mark of 125 and could’ve done with winning on Friday. However, he was a massive eyecatcher behind Gin Coco, where he raced unfavourably in rear throughout as the track favoured those prominent racers throughout the day. Jack Tudor pulled him around the outside on the turn and perhaps hit the front too early as he jumped the last in line with Faivoir who led from three out, but Jilajone couldn’t initially match the finishing kick of Gin Coco nor the former. What struck me the most was Jack Tudor was happy enough to remain on the bridle while the Burke/Skelton were animated on the other two, and he only got serious on his mount a couple strides after the last despite when his winning chance seemed inevitably gone. Immediately it looked as if he was being saved for a bigger pot, and the fact that Blueking D’Oroux beat his elders in the G2 Coral Hurdle on Saturday suggests Jilajone is seriously well handicapped off a mark of 125. It’s a wild thought, but if Pipe were able to improve him ten pounds prior to March, he’d have a serious chance in the County Hurdle off a low weight, which coincidentally, Favoir won last year beating Pied Piper, who won the Masterson Hurdle in 2022 that Jilajone was 2nd in to Blueking D’Oroux.
*I began writing this piece on Monday, and since then Jilajone has been entered in the Betfair Exchange Trophy. Now, he will need some luck to sneak in off 125 as he wouldn’t have in the last three renewals, but at 25/1 I’ll officially advise a 1pt WIN bet in the hope that he does, as he’s incredibly well handicapped off the aforementioned form and I’m surprised he’s not been reassessed by the handicapper.
15:10 Ascot – Tea Clipper (2/9) – Stowaway x A Plus Ma Puce (Turgeon) – Trainer: Tom Lacey.
Tea Clipper lost nothing in defeat giving a stone away to a well handicapped Venetia Williams horse on seasonal debut, whose stable (and jockey) can simply do no wrong at the moment. It’s hard to believe Tea Clipper’s only win over fences came on debut, but he’s dropped ominously down the weights now and I’d love to see him have a third crack at the Ultima. He was 4th off 145 in 2022, then 6th off 147 this year, the latter on unfavourable soft ground. If he turns up this year off a high 130s mark on good ground, he’d surely be a serious force.
SATURDAY
12:05 Haydock – Making Headway (2/9) – Malinas x Times Like These (Old Vic) – Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero.
Kamsinas was a nice winner for us last week and will deservedly take the plaudits, but I’d noticed how Making Headway had tracked every inch of Kamsinas’ route through the field under Henry Brooke, but failed to match the winner’s finishing kick. Making Headway kept on strongly without troubling our selection too much, but he showed plenty there to suggest he’ll be of interest in handicaps over an intermediate distance.
13:15 Haydock – Stainsby Girl (2/10) – Shirocco x Charmaine Wood (Double Trigger) – Trainer: Nicky Alexander.
Stainsby Girl was disappointing for us at the beginning of the month when quickly weakening out of contention in listed company at Wetherby, but she fared much better last weekend dropping back into handicap company with a gallant front running effort. It was a graveyard for front runners at Haydock with the majority winners either coming from off the pace or in midfield, so we can immediately upgrade Stainsby Girl’s second as the others who were either ‘prominent’ of ‘disputed lead’ were beaten 44L, 25L and 5L with the 1st, 3rd and 4th coming from ‘midfield’ or ‘rear’. She’s been put back up 2lbs for that so I presume she’ll be kept to C2’s for now, and while she’s done most of her winning in C3’s, there’s a win in her off this mark particularly granted a small field on soft ground with no pace on.
13:30 Ascot – Straw Fan Jack (2/4) – Geordieland x Callerlilly (Double Trigger) – Trainer: Sheila Lewis.
The admirable Straw Fan Jack was travelling well upsides the 162r Pic D’Orhy on the turn for home in the Nirvana Spa 1965 Grade 2 before being outpaced two out, and a subsequent pound drop in the weights undervalues that effort. While he’s perhaps exposed in G2/G1 company, he’s performed with credit in three goes now and he could rate a tantalising prospect dropped into a valuable handicap. While I don’t think it would harm him dropping back down in trip, I’d also be seriously interested in him if connections sent him to the Plate Handicap here in March over 2m4f, where he’d face significantly lesser opposition than what he’s faced over this trip the last there times in top graded company.
14:20 Haydock – Crambo (3/15) – Saddler Maker x Cardline (Martaline) – Trainer: Fergal O’Brien.
The 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th of the Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock either ‘led’, ‘tracked/chased leaders’, or were ‘prominent’ throughout so the efforts of Crambo in 3rd can be upgraded given he was the only one to fare well from way off the pace. Connor Brace has him wide throughout and it was amazing how close he finished to the heavily backed winner, who connections were raving about afterwards but sadly suffered a career ending tendon issue. Crambo was almost a second quicker than any other horse in the final furlong, taking the step up to three miles with aplomb, and it’ll be interesting where connections send him next as I feel he’s clearly a well handicapped animal off a revised mark of 142, especially as he was giving more than a stone away to the front pair, though Fergal has already noted the option of the Stayer’s hurdle.
15:35 Haydock Eleanor Bob (4/10) – Midnight Legend x Red and White (Red Ransom) – Trainer: Venetia Williams.
Venetia Williams has a knack for bringing back her horses after a long layoff and Eleanor Bob acquitted herself with aplomb from a 626 day break. Having led under a keen hold throughout, she was entitled to have been headed up the run in but she was still there with half a furlong to go and if the bounce factor can be avoided, she’ll stand a strong chance next time out.
ANTE POST SELECTION – Cheltenham Gold Cup – L’Homme Presse (20/1 Bet365, 16/1 generally)
Before I begin with this weekends selections, I’ll go slightly off-piste and advise my first ante-post bet for the Cheltenham Festival. I know we’re not even in December, but lets face it, whether we like it or not, the Cheltenham Festival is in the back of our minds throughout the year. It’s the pinnacle of sporting entertainment, and the Gold Cup is the crowning Glory. Firstly, we saw two of the top contenders beaten this weekend with the colours of Bravemansgame lowered for the second time this season, looking incredibly one paced against Royal Pagaille in this Betfair Chase at Haydock. Bravemansgame had bumped into something out of the ordinary in Galopin Des Champs last March, but he was quickly brought back down to earth with a second successive defeat to Ultima 2nd Fastorslow on Sunday in the John Durkin.
They say the Gold Cup can break horses, and while I don’t think that’s objectively the case, there has been a worrying trend recently of horses failing to back up such a monumental success. A Plus Tard put in one of the most visually impressive Gold Cup performances I’ve seen, but has pulled up twice since and been beaten 17L. Though Minella indo has won twice since his success in the race in 2021, he has yet to finish a race within 8lbs of his Gold Cup winning RPR and has pulled up three times in the interim, with the Grand National/Cross Country route being favoured by connections this season. Al Boum Photo was expertly trained by Willie Mullins to win back to back Gold Cups, but struggled to compete at that level since, such did Native River, who failed to win a G1 after his Gold Cup success in 2018.
I could go on forever, and while i’m not suggesting those aforementioned hoses weren’t still capable of admirable form, it highlights just how tough it is to bring one back to repeating such a feat and I can’t see Bravemansgame and Galopin Des Champs improving on what they achieved in the race last season. With that in mind, L’Homme Press rates a strong fancy. The obvious issue, is that we still haven’t seen him yet off the back of his injury that he picked up in the King George when seemingly looking held by Bravemansgame. But the fact he ran so well after supposedly picking that injury up early on in the race, hence the abnormal jumping out to his left, was a testament to his ability and I’d strongly fancy him to reverse any form with Bravemansgame. As mentioned in regards to Eleanor Bob earlier, Venetia William’s is a genius for bringing these types back from a layoff, and with L’Homme Presse’s record off a break, including a 773 day one of yard debut, reading 111, I’d have absolutely no doubt in my mind he will be cherry ripe for the contest.
His biggest asset is his jumping, and you can’t miss a beat around that unique 3m2f test. He travels well and we’ve already seen how capable he is around here and of Grade 1 form, as when he hacked up in the RSA with a degree of ease. I’d imagine we’ll see him once before March, though I’d be unsure whether that’s in the King George, possibly the G2 Denman Chase in February, won by Native River in 2018 en-route to his Gold Cup success.
If L’Homme Presse makes it there, and i’ve no doubt he will, he’ll surely go off under 10s and he ticks all the right boxes. The trip will obviously be the unknown, but he shapes as if he’s tailor-made for that test and his impeccable jumping can put them all to the sword.
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Weekend Punts
FRIDAY
1:50 Newbury – Coral John Francome Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Formerly Known As The Berkshire) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
TIGHTENOURBELTS (1pt win – 12/1 generally)
Readers of the column will recall I strongly fancied Tightenourbelts to take a novice handicap chase at Ascot at the start of the month, but he sadly wasn’t declared. The majority of my reasoning for that selection still stands, and I noted how “I’d fancy him to have at least 15lbs in hand now going handicapping over fences”. I wasn’t far off, as he was given a 12lbs rise for absolutely sauntering up over his rivals at Ludlow off top-weight, winning by 10L hard held after an impressive round of jumping. Annoyingly, his RPR of 140 there would’ve been a pound good enough to take that novice chase at Asct won by Sir Psycho.
He’s in deeper waters now plunged straight into G2 company, but I’m keen to take on Hermes Allen as I’ve not been all that impressed by some of Paul Nicholls’ first season chasers this year, and he’s awfully short at 4/5 in some places. He’s also 0-5 in this race since Clan Des Obeaux took it in 2016, and just one horse in the last decade has won this first time up/on chasing debut, which was Coneygree in 2014, which also rules out No Ordinary Joe. Nickle Back has been impressively in his two wins over fences this season, but he’s been given a freebie up top twice on sharp tracks and I’d be surprised if he’s able to repeat that on a galloping circuit like Newbury. Colonel Mustard is 0-3 over fences and if he jumps how he did at Down Royal last time out where there was six fences omitted, he’ll be lucky to even make it around. Marble Sands made a solid chasing debut last time out, but was flattered by a combination of the others jumping poorly and capitalising off a strongly run contest, and he’s also 0-4 in graded contests.
Now, beating Llandinabo Lad by ten lengths doesn’t scream being worthy of taking a G2 contest, hence why I’ve made cases against the others. But visually, Tightenourbelts looked a serious animal over fences at Ludlow and has already proven a suit for a smaller field. While he has something to find on ratings with the field, if he jumps how he did last time out and has come forward for the experience, it’s hard to see him not troubling the judge and he’s certainly overpriced as the outsider of the field, and it’s likely telling that connections send him here as opposed to the 0-150 handicap over the same distance in the next race.
2:25 Newbury – Coral Racing Club Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150)
KARL PHILLIPE (1pt E/W three places – 12/1 generally)
From a stats based perspective, the chances of Karl Phillipe’s looks solid here. Karl Phillipe’s record fresh reads 1121, and he should find this class two easier than the three previous Grade 3’s he contested last season. His record in handicap chases (excluding novice chases) reads 112 and his record at this distance over fences reads 211212. His record in fields of ten or smaller reads 1122132511212, as opposed to PU778 in bigger fields. His top three RPR’s have come within the months of November-January. Fergal O’Brien’s record in handicap chases at Newbury over the last five seasons reads 20-5-9, backing them all to a £1 stake would yield in £15.60 profit, and he won this race last season with Paint The Dream.
While he did struggle in some tough contests last season worth 56k, 70k and 56k, the handicapper has done some relenting and he’s only 4lbs above his last winning mark (technically 6lbs as Jack Hogan claims 2lbs less), and 3lbs below his 2nd at Wetherby in December when giving some 27lbs to the winner. There’s a minor suspicion he’s handicapped accordingly, but he beat Zanza on seasonal reappearance last season, who’s subsequently rated 22lbs higher, so a repeat of that run could see him back in the winners enclosure here. Regarding the others, Frero Banbou ran an excellent race in the Grand Sefton, but I’ve always thought of him as a big pot horse and its hard to envisage it being here, and all his wins/best form have come later on in the season. Kandoo Kid was a beaten favourite here last time out looking woefully one paced and soft in the finish, and I wouldn’t chance Jonjo’s/Skelton first time up as their runners are seemingly needed a run first, so I’ll take the plunge that Fergal’s is fit and ready to go, and has been targeted for a yard double in the contest.
SATURDAY
1:40 Newbury – Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150)
NORTH LODGE (0.5pt E/W three places – 10/1 generally)
Firstly, I’m aware of the risks involved backing one returning from an injury/year and a half layoff, but the fact he’s reported to be back in ‘very strong work’ is a positive and he’s highly regarded by Alan King, who similar to Venetia Williams, is excellent and bringing back such horses from a layoff.
If King has this big son of Presenting even 80% back to full fitness, then I’d chance him to go close off a mark that underestimates him in 142. He had the 142r Richmond Lake behind him on bumper debut, and beat the 149r Balco Coastal on hurdles debut in the G2 Ballymore Novices’ with the 145r A Different Kind in behind. He was then 2nd in the G2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelson to 135r Nells Son giving him 5lbs with the subsequent 145r Bold Endeavour in 3rd, before reversing that form with him in the G1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree when 3rd to ill-fated Three Stripe Life, with the 145r Might I in 2nd. Along with that form, he’s related to the ex-150r Winter Escape so there’s plenty of hope he can be better than a mark of 142 over hurdles before inevitably going chasing next season, but we are admittedly relying on how fit and ready Alan King has him, hence the half stake.
2:50 Newbury – Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
ELDORADO ALLEN (0.5pt E/W four places – 25/1 generally)
Joe Tizzard’s admirable grey ran a solid race in the Sodexo for us last time out, and that should have him cherry ripe for the Coral Gold Cup which the Tizzard’s have won twice in the last seven renewals. He looks well overpriced here, particularly given he’s twice the price of Midnight River who he has a 10lbs weight swing with for 9L gap when 4th to him in at Aintree in April. Although Eldorado Allen was beaten 23L here in the G2 Denman last February, the cheekpieces have been discarded since and its best to overlook that course effort and instead focus on when he won that race the year before, beating Royal Pagaille.
I’ve no doubt he’s a graded horse in a handicap, as he’s stepping out of graded contests for the first time since his novice chase win in October 2022. His record second time up after a break reads 331232 so he’s a big player from an each way perspective, if vulnerable to some younger, progressive legs. While that may be the case, it’s undeniable that he’s well handicapper given he was rated 162 at the start of last season, finishing second to Bravemansgame and Protektorat. The handicapper has leniently dropped him a pound for that 3rd in the Sodexo, and the way he stayed on having made all and been headed suggested he both needed the run, and will improve for the extra two furlongs having only previously tried the distance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
FRIDAY
1.50 Newbury – TIGHTENOURBELTS (1pt win – 12/1 generally)
2.25 Newbury – KARL PHILLIPE (1pt E/W three places – 12/1 generally)
SATURDAY
1.40 Newbury – NORTH LODGE (0.5pt E/W three places – 10/1 generally)
2.50 Newbury – ELDORADO ALLEN (0.5pt E/W four places – 25/1 generally)
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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