Matthew Sutcliffe gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of York’s Ebor Meeting last week, before giving a couple of big-priced selections for Saturday’s action,
After one of his initial picks (Rage Of Bamby) wasn’t declared on Thursday, Matt has two tips remaining for Saturday’s action, including a strong E/W fancy he expects to go one better than last year.
Published: 2.38pm 30th August (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 1.25pm 31st August (Dual Identity selection added)
Pointers
WEDNESDAY
13:50 MAKANAH – Mayson x Diane’s Choice (Komalite) – Trainer: Julie Camacho.
There wasn’t an incredibly strong draw bias in the first at York, but given they all finished in a bunch towards the far side, we can upgrade the performance of some of those drawn high, including Makanah. Julie Camacho’s mount travelled well in the rear from his stand-side draw and the quick pace of the contest aided him. Paul Hanagan saw the action inevitably unfolding on that far side however, and switched Makanah across for the finish, clocking the quickest final furlong (11.89) of the field. That was the closest he’s got to the winning line since winning off 4lbs higher at Musselburgh last October, and given the handicapper has kindly left him unchanged off a mark of 96, he’s one to keep an eye on next time. Notably he’s 5lbs below his 3rd in the Portland at Doncaster last season which came after a 1 3/4L 5th at York prior, so it’s likely that is the target.
13:50 COPPER KNIGHT – Sir Prancealot x Mystic Dream (Oasis Dream) – Trainer Tim Easterby.
The old boy Copper Knight couldn’t quite extend his historical winning sequence at York, however his front running 5th can be upgraded given the 1st,2nd,4th,6th had all come from rear/midfield. He was only collared in the last quarter of a furlong after maintaining a quick gallop. He’s been leniently dropped a pound by the handicapper and he’s 17lbs lower than what he was rated this time last year, so given the good health he’s clearly in he’s worth keeping onside for next time, or possibly the York October meeting.
16:10 AZTEC EMPIRE – Sea The Stars x Azanara (Hurricane Run) – Trainer: Andrew Balding.
Favourite backers will have been clawing their eyes out at the torrid passage Aztec Empire was given in the Stayers Handicap, but there’s plenty of optimism to suggest he’s one to keep the faith in. The eventual winner Forza Orta was perhaps lucky in the eyes of some to keep the race having edged left into the 2nd when mounting a challenge, and Oisin Murphy’s mount had to regather momentum down the outside, but the winning line came too quick. Conceding 4lbs to the winner who clearly thrived for the new trip, Aztec Empire lost nothing in defeat and is a young stayer to mind in handicaps.
16:45 RAGE OF BAMBY – Saxon Warrior x Rabiosa Fiore (Sakhee’s Secret) – Trainer: Eve Johnston Houghton.
It was pleasing to see last years Rockfel 3rd Rage Of Bamby back on track after she was beaten 14L on season return in April in listed company. There daughter of Saxon Warrior had showed plenty of promise last year for her handler, and the drop back to 5F was not an obvious choice. However, she showed excellent speed throughout the contest and travelled sweetly carrying top-weight, before being collared by one laid out for the contest having won it last year. A three pound rise suggests she’ll be tricky to place now as she lingers on that border between handicaps and listed races, but combine that effort with her back-class and the likelihood she’ll have come on for the run, I think she’s got plenty of promise going forward. She’s around a 14/1 shot for the Beverley Bullet this weekend, and you shouldn’t be surprised if you find her as a selection for the race later in the column.
16:45 MARINE WAVE – Harry Angel x Ambiguous (Kheleyf) – Trainer: Richard Fahey.
High draws were again slightly unfavourable given the action at the business end unfolded down the middle/far-side. I don’t think Oisin Orr covered himself in glory here and Marine Wave backers can rightly feel a tad hard done by. Around three furlongs out, Orr let Buick on Designer edge slightly left in an attempt to block out that rival getting first run. However, the gap was still there and if Orr was quicker to react, he’d have gone for that run earlier and had Designer chasing. As a result of that, Orr had to pull out wider toward the stands side which was riding slower, but still managed to clock the quickest final furlong (11.27) and be beaten just a shade by the winner. She’s justifiably been put up 3lbs, but she’s still got plenty of handicapping scope off 96 should connections pursue that route given she was only beaten a length in listed company at Ayr in June, with the winner acquitting herself very well in group contests since (4th in Nunthorpe).
17:20 ZABRISKIE POINT – Blue Point x Familiarity (Nayef) – Trainer: Charlie Hills.
It’s safe to say that Zoulu Chief made a mockery of his revised mark of 86 having won by four lengths at Windsor prior to his facile success in the Nursery at York, and I’d even suggest a 9lbs to 95 rise could underestimate his capabilities. Gina Mangan rode him like she knew he was the best horse in the race having set some blistering early fractions from the front before winning eased down. There wasn’t many, if any who got seriously competitive from in behind but I would like to upgrade the efforts of Zabriskie Point, who looked in danger of being tailed off at one stage. He broke slowly and was detached around fifteen lengths off the pace four furlongs out and Buick nearly refrained from persevering, however once he gave him a tap with the stick, something clearly clicked in his mind and he rattled through the field, clocking the quickest overall time in terms of the last three furlongs. He has a fascinating pedigree as he’s by bullet sprinter Blue Point out of a Nayef mare who won over 1m2f, so a concoction of speed and stamina. He certainly put that breeding into action as the way he stayed on suggested he will get further in no time, though perhaps needs some work on his racing mind in the early stages of a contest, as he hasn’t looked all that switched on in two starts prior either. If the team can iron out that crease, I think there’s potential for a very nice type who’ll hopefully be a smart 3yo.
THURSDAY
15:00 SONNY LISTON – Lawman x Stars In Your Eyes (Galileo) – Trainer: Ralph Beckett.
It paid to race prominently throughout in a typically competitive renewal of the Clipper Logistics Handicap, as the first three home were noted as ‘prominent’, ‘led’, ‘raced in second’. Sonny Liston caught my eye travelling strongly in rear having broken poorly, and his efforts can be upgraded. I don’t think Ryan Moore was overly harsh on him in the finish, however he still clocked the 2nd quickest last three overall furlongs. While that would initially suggest the mile is a minimum, I’d be inclined to suggest a drop back to seven furlongs on a galloping track will see him in the winners enclosure again.
15:00 LA TRINIDAD – Bated Breath x High Drama (High Chaparral) – Trainer: Roger Fell & Sean Murray.
La Trinidad was another unfavored by his track position but his application in the final three furlongs (quickest overall) was eye-catching. He had his momentum checked at a valuable time under Jonny Peate and was resigned to hands and heels throughout the last three furlongs, knowing his winning chance had gone, but still passed rivals with ease. He’s been dropped a pound for that run and although remains 8lbs higher than his last winning mark, that last win was a cosy four lengths and he shaped as if capable of taking a race off this mark. That said, connections may not want to blow his mark into the high 90s so I’d be wary about backing him next time out, but once his mark drops into the 80s he’ll be on my radar for a handicap success.
15:35 FREE WIND – Galileo x Alive Alive Oh (Duke of Marmalade) – Trainer: John & Thady Gosden.
Now I could be way off it here, but I’m backing Free Wind at 50/1 (generally) (66/1 if you’ve a bet 365 account) to win the Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe this year off the back of her 2nd in the Yorkshire Oaks. There was a collective groan from the Yorkshire crowd when Frankie couldn’t quite get there on Free Wind, having been caught in a pocket for too long, failing to reel in Warm Heart. Seemingly the unfancied Coolmore runner, quick ground is clearly the key to Warm Heart who bounced on the going and took the coveted award gamely. Free Wind was a tad unlucky but bounced back from her no-show on bottomless ground at Goodwood, beaten just a head conceding 9lbs to the talented filly. The Yorkshire Oaks has been a key a trial for Arc contenders in recent years, John Gosden in particular had won the race twice with Enable, who’d won the Arc after her first go and finished an agonising 2nd in the next. Alpinista won did the double last year, Snowfall was beaten four lengths in the Arc after her facile success in the Oaks, and Sea Of Class was beaten a short head by Enable in 2018 after taking the Oaks. As long as the going isn’t bottomless then I think Free Wind has a lively outside chance providing she takes up the entry. She’s a strong traveller who enjoys being amongst horses, and has an electric kick to boot so the Arc test should suit her strongly.
16:10 TREGONY – New Bay x Timarwa (Daylami) – Trainer: Clive Cox.
Tregony’s racing profession has been exceptional. Having been beaten a combined 27L in her first three starts in 2021, she entered handicaps off a mark of 54. Eight successes later, she’s now rated 97 after recording a career best in the Listed Galtres Stakes when a 1/2L 3rd to the unexposed Sea Theme. She was briefly denied a run which caused her to lose momentum, and the other two fillies were likely helped by their close proximity to each other, so even though she outran those her 16/1 odds, her performance can still be marked up and classed as a touch unlucky not to win. It’ll be interesting to see whether connections persevere with black type, but off a mark of 97 she will be of interest still in handicaps.
FRIDAY
13:50 BAGUE D’OR – Belardo x Ravensburg (Raven’s Pass) – Trainer: James Ferguson
Bague D’Or ran a cracker off a 391 lay-off when 2nd to Marharba The Champ in competitive heritage handicap. The five year old was entitled to come on for the run and likely needed it, though given his improved performances came over 1m6f last season, his promising reappearance over this shorter trip was enough to be enthusiastic regarding his next appearance. Given he was beaten a length by subsequent Ebor winner (15lbs higher now) when last seen prior to York, he’s surely a well handicapped horse off a mark of 91 for this season.
14:25 GIAVELLOTTO – Mastercraftsman x Gerika (Galileo) – Trainer: Marco Botti.
Giavellotot recorded a career best RPR (116) with a two lengths 3rd to Coltrane in the G1 Lonsdale Cup. Coltrane reversed the form with Ascot Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami, so the form was strong enough. I do think two miles stretches Giavellotto, as he reversed the St Leger form with Elder Eldarov over 1m6f earlier on in the season at York, and if he drops back in trip from two miles to the Irish equivalent (holds an entry) then he’ll be on my radar.
15:35 GET AHEAD – Showcasing x Suelita (Dutch Art) – Trainer: Clive Cox.
I don’t think we witnessed the strongest of Nunthorpe’s this year, in fact it wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest it was anything other than a glorified handicap. However there was still some pointers for the future, in particular Get Ahead who was a winner for the column at Haydock in May. Since then, she’s been beaten a short head in a group two in Chantilly, unsuited by track position at Sandown, then it was a similar story in the Nunthorpe. While she’s a likeable filly, I don’t think she’s anywhere near a G1 talent though she ran better than her 3L 8th suggested. She was drawn towards the stand side in 15, and all the action came up the far-side/middle. I was surprised Rossa Ryan didn’t try and get her involved in the action towards the far side, as she seems much better when she’s covered up in a strongly run group, as we saw at Haydock. Instead, she raced mainly alone and she probably lacked interest, however she was still traveling very well at the business end, and was ultimately unfavored by the slower part of the track.
She’s a tricky one to weigh up in terms of talent, as she’s rated 102 which would suggest a heritage handicap at the top of the weights would be ideal, however I still think she can rate higher and I wouldn’t be against backing her over 6F later in the Autumn.
16:45 THANKS FOREVER – Kessaar x Forevertwentyone (Approve) – Trainer: Adrian Keatley.
Adrian Keatley couldn’t quite taste success with the well fancied Ballymount Boy in the Acomb Stakes on Wednesday, but he showed his two year old’s were in rude health when Thanks Forever ran an excellent 3rd in the valuable Convivial Maiden. As it was his racecourse debut you can forgive his keen exertions which saw him set some quick furlongs early on, however I did expected him to drop away as a result of that. To my surprise, the gelded son of Kessaar was still firmly on the bridle two furlongs out while everything else around him was at work. Jason Hart left it late to push the button but I think he knew he had to to in order to save some energy after being keen throughout. He still kicked on again when asked the question, forcing the Ryan Moore to become more animated in the saddle on the well backed Battle Cry. While he inevitably weakened in the final strides, it was still a promising debut with the two in front of him having already ran to a good level of form, and his RPR of 88 would suggest there’s more to come from him.
SATURDAY
14:25 DENMARK – Camelot x Board Meeting (Anabaa) – Trainer: Aidan O’Brien.
It paid to be held up off a strong pace in a fascinating renewal of the Melrose handicap, with the 1st, 3rd, and 4th all coming from the last four places on the turn for home. I was taken by the performance of Denmark who probably wasn’t suited by racing in the middle on the inside, with those held up able to swing around the field and come down the stands side. Denmark was making his handicap debut off a mark of 97 and a break of 146 days, and didn’t look to be suited by the good-to-firm ground having previously raced on yielding, very soft and heavy. However, he travelled well and first time blinkers and stuck to his task stoutly, unsurprisingly given he’s a half brother to a multiple winner over staying trips. Interestingly, the RPR he ran to (108) would’ve been good enough to win the last nine renewals of the Melrose, which suggests his performance was a very classy one in defeat. He holds multiple entries ranging from handicaps-group ones, and he’s an excitingly unexposed stayer for the late Autumn races.
15:35 SCAMPI – Nayef x Preveza (Dalakhani) – Trainer: Andrew Balding.
Scampi won a race that guaranteed his place in this years Ebor, and he was unlucky not to get a fair bit closer. He travelled much the best and was quick through the middle part of the race, but Jason Hart found all sorts of trouble and was resigned to the bridle for half a furlong while the rest were hard at work. Now, I don’t think he would’ve won given he did weaken once he found daylight, but I do think he is close to a certainty next time out when down in trip. He was only put up 4lbs for pulling 12L clear with the runner up at Ascot last time out, and he travelled like he was still well handicapped in the Ebor. With the October meeting coming up in just over a month, I’m hoping the Balding yard persevere with him at York as he’s clearly suited by the track and drop him back down in trip.
16:10 – EHRAZ – Showcasing x Exerting (Exceed and Excel) – Trainer: Richard Hannon.
We were very unlucky not to have a 20/1 winner in Albasheer, who somehow didn’t bob his head in front, forcing a dead-heat with Summerghand, meaning we had to settle for half the odds. I’ll be following up on Albasheer as he was far better than the winning margin suggested, but Richards Hannon’s Ehraz was another to keep onside. You don’t see too many winners of these York sprints carrying top-weight, and he was partially unfavored by coming down the furthest away of all from the standside where all the action unfolded. He’s been a tricky horse to place, with just two wins from twelve runs which came in a maiden then a conditions stakes. He’s got black type form though and wasn’t beaten far in the Commonwealth Cup last year, so his unchanged mark of 105 makes him worth persevering next time out in handicaps presuming they continue down that route.
17:20 – OVIEDO – Lope De Vega x Gallitea (Galileo) – Trainer: Ed Bethell.
Given they put the winner Astro King up 5lbs for his success in the SkyBet Finale Handicap, it seems both strange and lenient that Oviedo is left unchanged off 101 despite being 1 1/2L behind the winner, and 3/4L in front of Haunted Dream who was also put up a pound. Oviedo caught the eye travelling the best, but didn’t quite have the toe to match the winner, though split the right horses (2nd and 1st favourite). I think the 1m2 1/2f at York possibly stretched him, and a drop in trip to somewhere like the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket over 1m1f, where he’s a 25/1 shot, would suit. He’s unexposed in handicaps with a 1st (Zetland Gold Cup) and a 2nd to his name, and he’s worth keeping onside off a bizarrely unchanged mark.
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
13:50 Sandown – Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-90)
INDEMNIFY (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W three places)
Indemnify effectively had an exercise gallop last time out here over a mile, it was a painfully agonising watch for his backers. All dressed up with nowhere to go, Kieran O’Neil was firmly on the bridle for between 3F-1F, though the way he travelled and then picked up once given a nudge suggested he’s still got room for manoeuvre off a mark of 91. He clearly loves it at Sandown as he was a 1 1/2L winner here over a mile in May for Roger Varian with subsequent Royal Hunt Cup 4th Aerion Power in behind. He was then a three length 5th in the 50k Coral Challenge behind subsequent Shergar Cup Mile winner Perotto, with that race providing further boosts such as Dutch Decoy who won next time out and was only beaten 3L at York from 3lbs higher from an unfavourable track position. Spirit Catcher was 2L in front of Dutch Decoy at York, but was previously 2L behind Indemnify at Sandown prior to dotting up by 5L at Ripon, so the form stacks up. Idemnify drops back to his lowest grade in handicaps which will mean he’ll be carrying top-weight, but he’s a well built, strong travelling gelding who should have no issue in doing so and can capitalise on the lesser competition.
14:20 Beverley – William Hill Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)
RAGE OF BAMBY (14/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W three places)
*NOT DECLARED AFTER FINAL DECLARATIONS CAME OUT THURSDAY*
As mentioned above, I was thoroughly impressed with Rage Of Bamby’s performance at York when beaten a short head by one laid out for the contest having won it last season, as well as conceding 6lbs to her while carrying top weight. She recorded a smart RPR for a handicap of 110, which suggests she’s more than capable of staking her claim in this listed race. She has to back that performance up now with just a ten day gap, but given she was 3rd in the Rockfel Stakes after a seventeen day gap I don’t have an issue with the turnaround, and it’s more likely a blessing that they’re striking while the iron is hot. It’s interesting that the was a late NR in a listed race at Pontefract just three days earlier to York due to being in season, and was also a NR in G3 at Goodwood at the start of the month, so she’s clearly showing plenty at home to reflect those entries, as demonstrated by her 2nd at York.
15:00 Sandown Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
DUAL IDENTITY (10/1 generally – 1.5pt E/W four places)
Dual Identity was a pointer for the column when faring 2nd best of those racing on the far-side in the Royal Hunt Cup. He’s struggled off a mark in the 90s after his productive season last year, including a one length 3rd in the Cambridgeshire off a mark of 91, for which he went up 4lbs for. He’s now 8lbs below his opening mark this season, and just 1lbs above his unlucky 2nd in this contest last year. He did exceptionally well in the circumstances then, as he was keen the whole way and a length off those in the rear turning for home, before thundering down the outside, just failing to reel in the always prominent leader from his impossible track position. It’s probable that the yard have earmarked him for this contest this season, and he wasn’t disgraced when beaten five lengths on ground softer than ideal in the Golden Mile at Goodwood. The return to this track should suit given his course and distance record reads 512 (5th was on unfavourable soft going), and jockey Marco Ghiani is in solid form with two wins and five places from his last ten rides.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1.50 Sandown – INDEMNIFY (1pt E/W three places – 12/1 generally)
2.20 Beverley – RAGE OF BAMBY *NOT DECLARED* (0.5pt E/W three places – 14/1 generally)
3.00 Sandown – DUAL IDENTITY (1.5pt E/W four places – 10/1 generally)
Matt Sutcliffe’s tip for Saturday 2nd September 2023.
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