Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through the horses to take out of last weekend’s action, before giving his value bets to back in this weekend’s racing.
Matt has been in superb form of late, firing in plenty of winners at big prices, and gives three tips for Saturday’s racing – including his pick for the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury.
Published: 11:40am 28th December (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 3pm 28th December (Bowtogreatness + Shanty Alley selections added)
Last Week’s Pointers
Saturday 23rd December
12:40 Ascot – Transmission (3/9) – Doyen x Ellie (Winged Love) – Trainer: Neil Mulholland.
Neil Mulholland does well with recruits from other yards and has already improved Transmission, who always threatened to be promising for Colm Murphy, finishing behind the likes of Colonel Harry and Demandrivingdouvan in his P2P’s, as well as Inthepocket on rules debut. The addition of cheekpieces seems to have rekindled that potential, as he caught the eye staying on well for third behind the always prominent pair of Top Cloud and Scamallach Liath last weekend. It looked for a second as if he’d get through the gap between that pair when jumping the last in tandem with them, but perhaps those early exertions had taken it out of him. He’ll be of interest next time out though a subsequent 3lbs was a tad harsh.
12:55 Haydock – Lunar Discovery (2/9) – Pether’s Moon x It’s A Discovery (Grand Plaisir) – Trainer: James Moffatt.
James Moffatt is excellent at placing his horses and was possibly unlucky not to have a listed winner in Lunar Discovery, whose jumping three and two out cost her vital momentum in contrast to that of Pawapuri, who was able to gain five lengths from the eventual second as a result, who was only a length behind her before three out. Despite those errors, she ran on strongly to bridge the gap to just two lengths and I’d like to see her drop back in trip on a galloping track next time out.
1:50 Ascot – Shan Blue (3/7) – Shantou x Lady Roberta (Bob Back) – Trainer: Dan Skelton.
It’s been a while since Shan Blue troubled the judge, but his 3/4L 3rd to Triple Trade was the closest he’s been since February 2021, when beaten 3 3/4L by Sporting John in the G1 Scilly Isles. He was pulled up after reportedly never travelling when favourite for last seasons Rowland Meyrick and two more letters were added to his form this season, but cheek-pieces seemed to prove the oracle as he travelled/jumped well bar one mistake. I don’t think the small field helped, particularly as their was only three involved at the finish, as he wandered a tad approaching the last so I’d be more confident in backing him in a big field handicap, especially now he’s rediscovered that ability.
3:00 Ascot – Switch Hitter (5/10) – Scorpion x Country Time (Curtain Time) – Trainer: Paul Nicholls.
The first three home in the Howden Silver Cup all came from the rear of the field, so it’s worth upgrading the performance of Switch Hitter, who led for the majority of the way and was headed two out, weakening up the run in. He’s been dropped a pound for that run and will likely be seen back at Wincanton in February, where he took a 12K handicap off a pound higher last season.
3:15 Haydock – Skandiburg (3/6) – Sageburg x Skandia (Robin Des Champs) – Trainer: Charlotte Fuller.
Skandiburg was rated 134 at the beginning of last season and is now 19lbs lower following his 8L 3rd at Haydock. He posted his best RPR since last November, and he’ll be a player next time out having showed a glimmer of winning potential of his lowering mark.
3:35 Ascot Hansard (5/9) – The Gurkha x Quiet Down (Quiet American) – Trainer: Gary Moore.
In contrast to the previous race, it suited to be on the front end as Luccia made all to take the coveted Betfair Exchange Trophy with the next three home all noted to have either been ‘in touch with leaders’ or ‘pressed leader’. Top weight Hansard was in rear throughout and made smooth headway up the inner, but was short of room when attempting to make a serious effort and shaped up the run in as if there was another day in mind for him, likely the Betfair Hurdler in February.
Tuesday 26th December
11:52 Wetherby – Dontyawantme (2/7) – Getaway x Glory Queen (Taipan) – Trainer: Craig Lidster.
Craig Lidster is better known for his rising status on the flat, but he has a nice NH mare on his hands with Dontyawantme, who was placed in a listed bumper for Fergal O’Brien last season. This rangy son of Getaway will likely improve next season for a fence, but showed she can make her mark over hurdles when just touched off by Lady In The Park at Wetherby after making all. She can make a winning handicap debut around a northern track next time out.
11:55 Aintree – Golden Glance (2/9) – Golden Horn x Zeeba (Barathea) – Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero.
Golden Glance split a prominent pair after coming from rear in the opener at Aintree on Boxing Day. Only the well backed favourite was too good for her, but she pulled 19L clear of the 3rd and the addition of a tongue tie sparked improvement from her disappointing 7th at Carlisle in October. I’d be surprised if she isn’t back in the winners enclosure in the coming months.
12:45 Kempton – Es Perfecto (3/8) – Shirocco x Shadow Dearg (Beneficial) – Trainer: Alan King.
Es Perfecto was a few lengths off the field the whole way around in the first at Kempton, but travelled into the race strongly on the turn home looking like the winner. He couldn’t quite hit full stride as he hung right from two out, but his jumping was excellent in the latter stages and he wont be far from winning races over fences, particularly once back on a galloping track.
2:10 Wetherby – The Four Sixes (1/6) – Westerner x Lemon Cello (Accordion) – Trainer: Olly Murphy.
The Four Sixes was impressive on his first start for Olly Murphy having joined the yard from Gordon Elliott, where his form tailed off since beating the now 135 rated Senior Chief. The Westerner gelding pulled hard in the early part of the race and continued to do so once allowed to stride out in front, though settled a tad better once Lewis Stones gave him an inch of rein. His jumping was a tad inconsistent, but he clearly has a big engine to keep on so well after his early exuberant exertions, and the well backed 5/4f couldn’t live with him either, with the pair pulling some 33+ lengths clear of the 3rd. He can be expected to follow up next time out.
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
2:25 Newbury Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135)
BOWTOGREATNESS (1pt win – 15/2 generally) + SHANTY ALLEY (0.5pt E/W – 14/1 generally, paying four places)
Bowtogreatness had a productive novice chasing campaign last season and can improve to be at least a 140s type this season for Harry Redknapp and the Paulings. My only slight worry is whether he’ll be 100% ready against some race fit rivals, given his original target was supposedly the Coral Trophy, but he was only just touched off on seasonal reappearance last year by Black Gerry, who went on to finish the season 14lbs higher so that provides some optimism. His form behind Complete Unknown in a novice chase at Ffos Las worked out well given that one was (sadly passed after the Welsh National) rated 16lbs higher, and although he was well beaten behind Gerri Colombe in the Scilly Isles, the fact they sent him there speaks volumes regarding how highly he is rated in the yard. You can forgive his effort on good ground at Warwick thereafter when hampered early on and seemingly losing confidence, and he was never put in the contest in the Plate Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. He ran an excellent race when second to Midnight River in a Grade 3 Handicap at the Aintree Festival (thought he would’ve won had he not steadied into the last and took the wrong gap) from 2lbs out of the weights and that forms worked out in places with Kinondo Kwetu (3rd) following up next time out and finishing 3rd off top-weight in the summer cup off 145 at Uttoxeter. The 4th/5th both acquitted themselves well in the Coral Gold Cup and Nassalam was in seventh that who since has completed the Welsh National trial/proper double. Whether he can take this off 12-0 on seasonal debut remains to be seen, but he’s largely in against mid 120s types and Ben Pauling took this race 2015.
In case Bowtogreatness needs the run, then the winner may come in the form of last years second Shanty Alley for Ben Case and Jack Quinlan. The Shantou gelding was beaten 3/4L by Grumpy Charley in this race last season, and returns 5lbs lower in the weights. He made a promising return to action off top-weight at Catterick last month beaten nine lengths, and the form’s worked out with the fourth going in next time out beating East Street who’s declared for a 0-145 handicap at Haydock on Saturday, and the second was gambled on when a good 3rd in a 26k handicap to Forward Plan at Doncaster two weeks ago. This will surely have been the plan and a repeat of last years performance should see him fighting out the finish.
3:00 Newbury – Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
MASACCIO (2pt win – 11/1 William Hill, 10/1 generally)
The coveted Challow Hurdle looks a fascinating renewal this year with all but one of the nine declared having finished in the top two of their respective races last time out. The unbeaten Willmount will no doubt top the market but I’d strongly suggest taking him on at the prices. He’s been campaigned exclusively at two miles in his three runs under rules, but every one of the last ten winners of this race had previously won over at least 2m3f, and 11/12 had two previous runs over hurdles. For all he was impressive last time out, the 2nd was beaten 16L next time out (RPR 97) and the 3rd was beaten 26L nto (RPR 95), and he’s a poorly priced favourite who must be taken on.
The Hyde Novices’ has been a good pointer towards this race in recent season’s so Captain Teague must be feared, but his Persian War form hasn’t worked out I was disappointed with his effort last time out, so I’d be happy enough to sweep him aside. Jonnywho rates a serious prospect as he’s barely got out of first gear in his two runs under rules so far, and he had last years winner of this race Hermes Allen some 19L behind him in his P2P victory. I’d contemplated making him my selection, but I struggle to weigh up the genuine capabilities of one who has only thus far won on the bridle, and the horse in 3rd that day was beaten 20L at Haydock last weekend.
The one I’m siding with is Alan King’s Masaccio, who although was beaten last time out, it was only by a nose giving 6lbs away to the winner. Interestingly, that race was won by Stage Star in 2021 and Bravemansgame in 2020, who both followed up in the Challow next time out. Masaccio was impressive on hurdles debut in October when showing a gritty attitude to rally back up for first when beating Beat The Bat, who beat a subsequent winner. (Welcome To Cartries, Ideal De Bordes also in second) next time out and was only beaten 2L last time out (pulled 11L clear of the 3rd) by the smart Dysart Enos who currently tops the betting for the Mares Novices’ hurdle in March (gave 6lbs). That form gives Masaccio a leading chance here, and that race was also won by Stage Star in 2021, and Star Gate in 2020 who was subsequently 2nd in the Challow to Bravemansgame. While he may not have won his races in the flashy style of the likes of Willmount and Jonnywho, Masaccio can put his battling abilities to good use here and give Alan King a second win in this race after Messire Des Obeaux won it in 2016.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
BOWTOGREATNESS (1pt win – 15/2 generally) + SHANTY ALLEY (0.5pt E/W – 14/1 generally, paying four places)
3.00 Newbury – MASACCIO (2pt win – 11/1 William Hill, 10/1 generally)
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