GG’s latest recruit Matthew Sutcliffe gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of last weekends action at Ayr, Newbury and York, before giving his fancies for Saturday’s action.
They include one at a HUGE price in the Royal Lodge Stakes, plus three he’s keen on in the Cambridgeshire Handicap.
Published: 3.20pm 27th September (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 1.30pm 28th September (Carolus Magnus selection added)
Last Week’s Pointers
1:15 Ayr – KOY KOY (3rd/9) – Acclamation x Lynique (Dylan Thomas) – Trainer: George Boughey.
Koy Koy failed to justify favouritism in the opener at Ayr, but his effort can be marked up strongly as he was without a run multiple times two furlongs out before staying on gallantly for 3rd. The two who finished ahead of him there had first run, and I’ve no doubt Koy Koy would have won a shade cosily had he been granted daylight earlier. He still recorded a career best on RPR’s there and smacks of a handicapper on the up. With his mark unchanged, it wouldn’t come as a surprised to see connections turn him back out this weekend for the Cambridgeshire.
2:00 York – OAKLAND PRINCESS (4th/6) – Dark Angel x Mayorstone (Exceed and Excel) – Trainer: Karl Burke.
I was at York on Saturday, and I’m unsure where the Racing Post have plucked ‘G/S’ from regarding the description of the ground. It was certainly on the softer side, which didn’t favour Oakland Princess who couldn’t get home after travelling strongly. She hung right in the closing stages and looked uncomfortable trying to mount a challenge in the ground, though still shaped with a considerable degree of promise. She’s a speedily bred filly who’ll likely enter handicaps on a competitive mark after her next run, and I wouldn’t be against backing her if she were to drop down to five furlongs either.
2:25 Ayr – CALL ME GINGER (16th/25) – Orientor x Primo Heights (Primo Valentino) – Trainer: Jim Goldie.
Call Me Ginger fared far better than his 10L gap to the winner suggested, as he was the only to run somewhat creditably from those who raced on the nearside. The track bias was incredibly strong, but Call Me Ginger was able to break away from his group on the nearside and begin to mount a challenge before inevitably the far side drew clear. He remains on a high enough mark, but the way he’s shaped in his last two runs suggests it’s not beyond him to get back into the winners enclosure, perhaps at the Doncaster meeting in the middle of October.
2:25 Ayr – ADMIRAL D (3rd/25) – Ardad x Derval (One Cool Cat) – Trainer: Richard Fahey.
I proudly gave up backing Admiral D a couple runs a go, so it was a heart in mouth moment when he came with what looked like a winning run in the Ayr Silver Cup. Nevertheless, he bounced right back to form after an underwhelming string of performances, and he’s back on my radar. Last season he was beaten 2 1/4l in the Gold Cup off a mark of 95, before finishing a 6L 9th in the Coral Sprint Trophy at York won by stablemate Strike Red, who was beaten 11L in the Silver Cup prior. I’ve earmarked Admiral D for that contest next time out to follow the same path, as he’s now 10lbs lower than his 6th in the race last year and clearly back in good health.
2:40 Newbury – MUSTAZEED (4th/8) – Territories x Mejala (Red Ransom) – Trainer: Harry Eustace.
Lazy starts are starting to become a habit for Mustazeed, as when beaten two and a half lengths at Newbury. The gap to the winner doesn’t tell the whole story, as he lost around six lengths at the start having broke slowly and been sluggish into his stride. Kaiya Fraser was pushing him a long for the majority of the first furlong, and was able to get the gelding back into touch thanks to the slow pace at the beginning of the contest. Again he hit a flat spot and was forced to come down the outside to mount a challenge, but had ultimately given himself too much too do. Despite finishing 4th, he still strikes me as a progressive 5yo who’s got some scope off a mark of 88, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see connections reach for headgear next time out.
3.10 York – BULMER BANK (4th/6)- National Defense x Readyandaway (More Than Ready) – Trainer: Michael & David Easterby.
Bulmer Bank was a confident selection for the column last week, and at one stage it looked as though he was cantering towards a success. However, a combination of being keen and settling off a slow gallop suggested he had already blown his chances come the finish. He was reported to have hung left in the final furlong when under pressure, and he didn’t seem to handle the ground. As discussed in the column, he looked well handicapped even from a pound out of the weights, so given the fact he’s been dropped a further pound, he’s one to keep onside for next time provided a big field and a strong pace.
3:35 Ayr – ALBASHEER (4th/24) – Shamardal x Mutebah (Marju) – Trainer: Archie Watson.
You’d have to go some way back to find the last time when the top ten were separated by two lengths in the Ayr Gold Cup. It was a fiercely competitive race and the handicapper will have given himself a metaphorical pat on the back, unlike Hollie Doyle who I thought lost the race by tracking Rohaan. I was certain Rohaan was thrown in for the race, but the track bias/draw ruined ultimately his chances. Albasheer was a couple lengths detached in rear and Doyle had the full field in her sight, but it was clear in the Silver cup that the track was favouring those on the far-side, so if Doyle had switched left and gone through the gaps as she did when dead-heating on Albasheer at York, I think he’d have won quite cosily. Obviously there was less risk in coming down the outside, but I think she purposefully rode the race to beat Rohaan, hence coming down the outer. Albasheer still finished off like a train though, faring best of those drawn high, and is still on a mark that underestimates his ability.
3:45 York – LOWTON (4th/17) – Pivotal x Heskin (Acclamation) – Trainer: Edward Bethell.
Lowton was available to back at 6/1 on Friday evening, so you’d have torn up the slip come 3:45 given he went off a very weak 20/1 shot. The drift spoke, though there was no obvious foul play and it was a miracle he finished as close as he did in 4th. He broke well, though came wide on the turn and it became increasingly obvious that the track was favouring those towards the middle/inner. He began to backpedal and was quickly outpaced, leaving him toward the rear when not getting a clear run two furlongs out, but when Ross Coakley gave him a couple of slaps, he picked up nicely and despite his troubled passage, stuck on stoutly for 4th. I don’t think the first time blinkers made much of a difference, and he’s likely to come on for that first run since the end of July.
3:45 York – NINRAS ANGEL (14th/17) – Harry Angel x Always Thankful (Showcasing) – Trainer: Ismail Mohammed.
As mentioned above, it paid to come down towards the middle/inner in the 3:45, so Nibras Angel was undoubtedly un-favoured. It was inevitably a big task for the unexposed 3yo filly to race up against some seasoned older handicappers and the eventual thirteen lengths deficit backed up that claim, but she clocked the quickest fourth and fifth furlong which was largely when the field got racing, before a combination of soft ground and track position petered out that effort. She had travelled nicely into contention prior to that and the fact she’s still entered group races suggests she’s highly regarded by connections, and if they continue with the handicap route then she’ll be of interest when back against her own age on quicker ground.
4:25 Newbury – EMBRACE (3rd/11) – Lope De Vega x Whazzis (Desert Prince) – Trainer: Owen Burrows.
Embrace’s official rating of 91 may flatter her given she had only ran above an RPR of 90 once prior to her Newbury 4th, which came when 4th to Remarquee in the Fred Darling in April. Since then, she ran to RPR’s of 84, 67 and 69, so it was pleasing to see her somewhat bounce back to a competitive level of form last weekend with an RPR of 95. She looked like the winner a furlong out having travelled smoothly into contention, and she quickly drew two lengths clear from the field, before hanging left into the oncoming Pearle D’or under pressure and ultimately throwing her race away. According to RPR’s, that was a career best performance in that regard, so she is one to keep onside this before the flat season ends, particularly with the softer ground in mind. She no doubt wants to be kept on a left handed track given her tendency to hang that way, and her only win came around the sharp left bend of Wolverhampton.
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
13:50 Newmarket – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)
AT VIMEIRO (50/1 Paddy Power + Betfair, 33/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W three places)
At the current time of writing, Aidan O’Brien has six of his endless battalion of talent entered in here, including Capulet who ran the very promising Diego Velazquez close at Leopardstown last time out. Godolphin have just the one entry with Aablan who was still very green when winning the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown last time out. I’ll be taking both those powerhouses on with the rank outside of the field in At Vimeiro. The last ten renewals have seen no more than eight runners, but given there’s already eight of them jocked up (though Oisin Murphy is jocked on both of Balding’s), I’m hoping we have a big, competitive field. One of them is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s At Vimeiro, who was given a very considerate introduction to racing on her debut at Doncaster at the St Leger meeting. The winner (God’s Window) was a pointer for the column but At Vimeiro was arguably just as worth taking out of the contest. Ghiani dropped him out the back and allowed him to find his own rhythm, without really being put into it. He unsurprisingly clocked the quickest final furlong flying home for 5th, shaping far better than that position suggests. Now, he’s undoubtedly got something to find with the majority of these runners, but he’s evidently very well thought of given he cost 650,000gns as a yearling, the fourth highest by Sea The Stars in 2022. While he’s certainly one for further next year, it’s not out of the question that he could stake his claim in this contest as he’s clearly a talented individual who’ll come on bundles for his run.
14:05 Chester – Watergate Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)
IT’S GOOD TO LAUGH (8/1 generally – 1pt win)
It’s Good To Laugh has form figures of 18225111254322 between the months of August-November and can reverse the form with Emiyn, and Yorkindess who he’s been 2nd to in his two of his last three runs, with a 3lbs and 2lbs swing with that pair respectively. His record here reads 1175322 and the pair that beat him here the last twice were favoured by a soft lead. There’s likely to be more pace on this time around with the likes of Emiyn, Tashkhan, Yorkindness all to go forward, and It’s Good To Laugh can capitalise on a pace collapse from the rear.
15:00 Newmarket – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2yo)
LAKE FOREST (12/1 generally – 1pt win)
I’m obviously putting a lot of faith in Marquand this Saturday, so no pressure if you’re reading, Tom! A couple of these runners have had their bubbles burst this season; Coventry winner River Tiber lost his air of invincibility when 3rd in the Prix Morny last time out, though the ground was perhaps a feasible excuse, however the Coventry isn’t a telling pointer towards the Middle Park. Jasour will also have to bounce back from his Morny defeat and hope the rain stays away. Task Force is a colt I think the world of, but I’m not entirely convinced the son of Frankel will have the naturally precocious speed for the contest that is often required. No Nay Never has sired the winner of this race last year and in 2018, and Lake Forest has a fine chance of making that three if he can build on his Gimcrack win last time out. While he’s been beaten twice here this season, they were both on the July course and I think the Rowley course will suit far better as although he’s got plenty of speed, he is bred to get 7F and the uphill nature of the course will suit as opposed to the July course which can cause some to become unbalanced going predominantly downhill before it levels out. The Middle Park was earmarked immediately after York by Haggas, who noted how surprised he was when he got beat the time before, indicating how high he clearly rates him. He discussed how they changed his routine prior to the race as he clearly got himself worked up at Newmarket, and proved the oracle. I think the race will pan out for him to come from off the pace, and he can continue his upward curve.
15:40 Newmarket – bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
PARADIAS – (33/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W), ZOZIMUS (33/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W) + CAROLUS MAGNUS (150/1 Coral & Ladbrokes, 100/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W)
Paradias’ performance at York last time can be strongly marked up and makes him a lively player in this incredibly competitive event. He set some fair fractions from the front and kicked clear two furlongs out looking like the winner, though he hung left and was unable to stay the trip, weakening late on with the four in front of him all coming from off the pace. That was still a game effort off top-weight, and the 3rd has since won the Mallard at Doncaster. His 4th at Goodwood in the Chesterfield Cup reads well too, as the 3rd was only just beaten a length in the listed Doonside Cup at Ayr, the 3rd was behind Oviedo and Astro King in a 51k Class 2 Handicap at York next time out with that pair within the top four for the betting in the Cambridgeshire, and then the winner (Ancient Rome) was followed up in a G3 in Keeneland next time out. He’s fairly treated off a mark of 95 with those reasons in mind, and he’s 1-1 over the 1m1f trip.
Zozimus is the other on my shortlist, and can hopefully give David O’Meara his first win in the contest. The heritage handicap guru has mopped up plenty of valuable prizes this season, and Zozimus should sneak in at the bottom of the weights to go three places better than his attempt in the race in 2021. Zozimus fared best of those drawn low finishing 1st in his group of 11, and returns here off a 10lbs lower mark, as well as being 3lbs well in. He’s recorded his best two performances this season in a newly appointed visor with both runs coming off top-weight, and can hopefully go one place better than the last twice.
With 50/1 and two 33/1 selections already this weekend, I’m going to carry on the ambition and throw in one available at 150/1 for the Cambridgeshire. Carolus Magnus was on my shortlist before declarations, but he needed a few to come out and I wasn’t entirely sure he’d get in. Now that he has, I can’t avoid playing him here especially given he’s drawn well in 27. He wasn’t disgraced when a 10L 19th in this contest last season when unfavourably drawn low, and he returns 5lbs lower this time around. I really don’t think this is the strongest renewal of the Cambridgeshire, and there’s only three course winners in here with Carolus Magnus being one of them (2-5 here). Since joining Michael & David Easterby from the Balding yard, he’s not pulled up any trees but there’s a sense he’s been campaigned with a big pot in mind and he’s had excuses; his saddle slipped at York on yard/seasonal debut, he was then a huge eye-catcher at Chelmsford next time out when travelling vey strongly, though was tenderly handled to say the least. He took his AW record to 0-3 at Newcastle next time out but was only beaten just under 3L and he was slowly away after Jonny Peate removed the blindfold late, before not being put into the race at Wolverhampton last time out in a racing league contest. It’s clear the AW doesn’t suit him, nor does 1m2f so the return to a track he’s won twice at and a more suitable trip will certainly suit. The last seven winners have all come from stalls in the 20s, and there’s very little negatives surrounding him, so this strong-travelling sort worthy each way player at very lively odds if bouncing back to the form he was capable of running to on turf last season.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1.50 Newmarket – AT VIMEIRO (0.5pt E/W – 50/1 Paddy Power + Betfair, 33/1 generally)
2.05 Chester – IT’S GOOD TO LAUGH (1pt win – 8/1 generally)
3.00 Newmarket – LAKE FOREST (1pt win – 12/1 generally)
3.40 Newmarket – PARADIAS (0.5pt E/W – 33/1 generally), ZOZIMUS (0.5pt E/W – 33/1 generally) + CAROLUS MAGNUS (0.5pt E/W – 150/1 Coral & Ladbrokes, 100/1 generally)
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