GG’s latest recruit Matthew Sutcliffe gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of last weekends action, before giving his fancies for Saturday’s action.
They include his pick for the Howden Challenge Cup, where he’s hoping the race is run to suit his big-odds selection.
Published: 12.40pm 4th October (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 3.10pm 6th October (Garrus selection added)
Last Week’s Pointers
FRIDAY
2:25 Newmarket – SWEET MEMORIES (2nd/11) – Sea The Stars x Time Control (Sadler’s Wells) – Trainer: John & Thady Gosden.
It’s often paid to look beyond the winner of this contest in recent years, with the likes of Sea Silk Road, Alpinista and Sea La Rosa all being beaten in it. Sweet Memories was a pointer for the column the last time she ran when taking the Chalice Stakes in convincing fashion on soft ground on the July course in August. Returning from a break, she couldn’t justify 4/1J favouritism beaten only by one who’s always threatened to be smart. However, the quicker ground may not have seen her to best effect and she fared the best of those drawn low splitting ones who came from 11 and 9. I’m still very much of the opinion she’s a talented filly and should the ground come up soft on Champions Day then the current 20/1 available for the Fillies & Mares may be lenient come the off.
3:00 Newmarket – SHUWARI (2nd/6) – New Bay x Lady Pimpernel (Sir Percy) – Trainer: Ollie Sangster.
Shuwari may have lost her unbeaten tally but certainly not her reputation. The winner was very impressive, though perhaps flattered by a confident forward ride by James Doyle as opposed to those who sat in the rear early on. The rest of the field struggled to lay a glove on Carla’s Way, but Shuwari stuck on nicely clocking a 10.97s furlong three out, and a 10.89s furlong two out. I’ve no doubt if the pair were to meet again but over a mile next year then the form would be reversed with ease, and Shuwari shouldn’t be taken lightly if she were to go to the Fillies Mile for which she’s currently 6/1 for with the step up (and potentially soft ground) in her favour.
SATURDAY
1:50 Newmarket – CAPULET (3rd/9) – Justify x Wedding Vow (Galileo) – Trainer: Aidan O’Brien.
I was happy enough with the run from At Vimeiro in the Royal Lodge, as it was always going to be an uphill task on his second racecourse start but he held his own and briefly gave us a run for our 50/1 bet. He’s certainly one to keep an eye on next season, but I thought the run from Capulet was excellent and he may prove to be the be the best of the bunch. He was keen under Ryan Moore with no cover making most of the running up front, and by no means looked the finished article hanging right along the way. He was outpaced when push came to shove two furlongs out and headed by all but Aablan and Caviar Heights who finished 8th/9th respectively, but miraculously found a gear and stuck on to be beaten under two lengths into 3rd. He’s clearly a colt who’ll flourish over further, and given his high action I’m hoping to see him in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud at the back end of the month on some soft ground, a race that stablemate Adelaide River finished 3rd in after winning the same Dundalk maiden Capulet did earlier this year.
2:25 Market Rasen – BALBOA (2nd/8) – Mondialiste x Reachforthestars (Sea The Stars) – Trainer: Milton Harris.
Yes, you read that correctly, Market Rasen. I know we’ve still got Champion’s Day, but I’ve been itching to get back into the jumping groove and my first National Hunt pointer from this column is Milton Harris’ 3yo Balboa. Sent off 2/1 on debut with Harry Cobden in the saddle, better was clearly expected than the eventual 17L 3rd, but he jumped poorly in rear and struggled to find a rhythm which is anything but ideal around Cartmel. He showed much more this weekend with his hood discarded despite still looking like a work in progress. His jumping was again sketchy and he settled way off the leaders given plenty of time to work his way into the contest. However, his jumping improved dramatically throughout the race and caught the eye making smooth headway, briefly hitting the front before the favourite battled back up the inner. He split the two at the head of the market there and I’ll look to back him next time out.
2:55 Ripon – FLAVIUS TITUS (2nd/10) – Lethal Force x Furbelow (Pivotal) – Trainer: Danny Brooke
Very little got in to in from the rear across the card at Ripon on Saturday, with six of the seven winners described to have either “made all” or “pressed leaders”. Flavius Titus was then set with a near-impossible task when slowly into stride and having to be ridden early on, but he stuck on stoutly without threatening the winner who was favoured by making all. Consistency has rarely been his forte, but that was his third second adding to his win this season and his joint best RPR since October 2021, so he’s worth a second look next time out.
3:00 Newmarket – TASK FORCE (2nd/9) – Frankel x Special Duty (Hennessy) – Trainer: Ralph Beckett
I fell in love with Task Force at Salisbury and was very surprised to see him in the Two-Year Old Trophy at Redcar next time out, as he looked like a step up to 7F (had earmarked Champagne Stakes) would be on the agenda. But he put in a brilliant performance despite still very green there, and improved again over 6F in the Middle Park last weekend. He was again green and keen early on, whereas Vandeek was far more professional through the early part of the contest and quickened like a proper sprinter. While the Middle Park is by no means a good pointer toward the 2000 Guineas, I’d be shocked if Task Force doesn’t improve for the step up in trip as a three year old. He’s got plenty of scope and has been strong in the finish over six, his class got him through the first two runs but he was undoubtedly outpaced by a very classy type in the Middle Park, but flew home late again showing how he’d relish a step up. By Frankel out of a 1000 Guineas winner, he’s from a Classic winning background and I’ll play a point on him ante-post (16/1) for next years 2000 Guineas in the hope he fills that big frame out and connections step him up.
3:40 Newmarket – OVIEDO (4th/34) – Lope De Vega x Gallitea (Galileo) – Trainer: Edward Bethell.
Oviedo backers were given the kiss of death when announced he’d be coming out of stall 1, but he fared best of those drawn low and was mightily unlucky to be beaten just over a length. Also faring best of the prominent racers, he was without cover the whole way and drifted left under pressure, briefly hit the front but was overhauled by three drawn on the near side. He’s been put up 2lbs to 105 for his troubles and it may be the last time we see him this season, unless connections were to step him back up into stakes company, perhaps in the Listed Jayne Seymour Stakes at the back end of the month.
3:40 Newmarket – CAROLUS MAGNUS (9th/34) – Holy Roman Emperor x Izola (Beat Hollow) – Trainer: Mick & David Easterby.
Very rarely will I ever feel hard done by from a 150/1 shot, but I thought we were unlucky not to get some sort of a return from Carolus Magnus in the Cambridgeshire. Drawn in 27, next door to the 3rd and three doors up from the 2nd, it was frustrating to see Carolus Magnus held up toward the centre before finishing with a wet sail down the rail. His effort can be marked up strongly on that evidence and he clocked the quickest final furlong of the contest, 0.31 quicker than the second quickest which was the eventual 2nd and red hot favourite. The good news is we know he’s in solid form and another win is imminent, the bad news is I very much doubt we’ll have 150s!
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
1:30 Newmarket – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)
REACH (8/1 generally – 1pt win) *NOT DECLARED*
Whispering Words doesn’t exactly look chucked in off a mark of 88 and has to be worth taking on at the top of the market. Red Danielle looks well handicapped off a mark of 90 given she was beaten 1/2L by Sweet Memories in July who I’ve noted further up the column, but she looks as if she wants further having been headed twice over 1m2f in a finish before keeping on. Morning Poem would be interesting if turning up here off 89 given her form in handicaps last year has worked out and she’ll have come on from her run in listed company last time out. The one I cannot get away from though is the lightly raced five year old Reach for Mick & David Easterby. She was well backed to produce a career best at York last time out when winning far more cosier than the neck distance suggests. Although keen, she travelled effortlessly into contention and Joanna Mason wasn’t too hard on her in the finish either, picking up well and going again once the second came upsides her. She’s gone up 5lbs for her troubles but I still think that underestimates her potential ability. She’s 3/4 in handicaps over this distance and quick ground this weekend will suit. She’ll have to give weight to her younger rivals but she’s a hardy, strong travelling mare who should thrive in this company.
3:00 Ascot – John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)
GARRUS (1pt win – 15/2 generally)
Garrus is arguably a better horse off a break and in the earlier part of the season, but he’s a force to be reckoned with at Group 3 level with his form figures in this grade reading 24121122. He’s winless since beating Commanche Falls in the Abernant Stakes in April, but has by no means been disgraced in four starts since, bumping into the subsequent G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Longchamp over 7F, before conceding 5lbs to a rejuvenated Mill Stream at Deauville, then finishing a similar distance behind him when 8th in the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock. He’ll appreciate the drop into calmer waters here, taking on some out of form types and others jumping up into this grade. The pace is drawn around him and the yard are amongst the winners, so no obvious reason why he won’t be going close here.
3:35 Ascot – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
BLESS HIM (20/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W four places)
All but one of the last ten winners of this contest were held up which will suit the style of Bless Him who can finally take advantage of his dwindling mark. He’s officially 2lbs below his last winning mark which came when taking the Bunbury Cup last season off 101, so although he’s 1lb out of the weights, running off a mark of 100 (5lbs lower than the start of the season) will be no issue. He’s carried top weight in both of his last two runs, where he was beaten five lengths by Quinault at Ascot with the reappearing Popmaster in 2nd. He wasn’t granted a clear run there, and he’s 6lbs and 11lbs better off with that pair who are toward the head of the market. Bless Him was given a very considerate ride at Newmarket last time out beaten just three lengths, suggesting his turn to go in is near. With the likes of Quinault, Maywake and Popmaster to go forward, Bless Him should be granted a good gallop and it’s hard to envisage him out of the placings if getting the gaps.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1.30 Newmarket – REACH (1pt win – 8/1 generally) *NOT DECLARED*
3.00 Ascot – GARRUS (1pt win – 15/2 generally)
3.35 Ascot – BLESS HIM (0.5pt E/W *four places* – 20/1 generally)
Matt Sutcliffe’s tip for Saturday 7th October 2023.
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