Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through the horses to take out of last weekends action, before giving his value bets to back in this weekends racing.
Matt continues to be in excellent form, with another two E/W profitable tips last week. He gives three tips for the excellent Sandown card this weekend, as well as a confident win tip on Aintree’s card.
Published: 12.05pm 6th December (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 12.55pm 7th December (War Lord selection added)
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
1:30 Aintree – Boylesports Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
WAR LORD (1.5pt win – 6/1 generally)
War Lord was a pointer for the column last time out after his eye-catching 3rd in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter from 5lbs out of the weights and has been leniently dropped a pound for that effort. Having struggled for the majority of last season, a wind-operation seems to have ironed out any issues in him and as many horses do, it’ll be no surprise should he improve for that first run after it. He finished three lengths behind stablemate Elixir De Nutz giving him 6lbs who was supposedly primed for the contest, and that one has since followed up in impressive style at Newbury, now rated 156. War Lord’s record second time up after a break reads 311122 and prior to last season, where he evidently wasn’t right within himself, his record on soft/heavy ground read 134121301. He was second over course and distance in the G2 Mildmay Novices’ in 2022 and Harry Cobden’s record on him reads 132, with his overall record for Joe Tizzard reading 13-3-1 (£12:50+), and his overall record for his old man reading 630-103-126 (16.35%, £45.58+).
1:50 Sandown – Betfair Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
LE PATRON (1pt win – 16/1 Bet365 + William Hill, 14/1 generally)
Le Patron was a pointer for the column when dotting up at Fontwell by some twenty lengths on chasing debut after making all under Jamie Moore, and it was nearly a carbon copy performance at Sandown last time out, where he was in a league of his own in the jumping department. While he has something to find on ratings with these, the form set by the market leaders doesn’t scream ‘Grade One’ quality. JPR One looked to have to beating of Homme Public at Cheltenham, last time out with Petit Tonnerre in behind, but with all due respect for the former, he only won a C3 handicap by a length prior to that, so does JPR One justify such short odds based on that?
The drop back in trip is an interesting move from Gary Moore for Le Patron, as he’s won head in chest over 2m4f twice now. But if he bounces out and makes all, jumping how he did around here last time out, then he’ll be very tough to peg back especially with the soft/heavy ground forecast which I noted he should improve for after seeing his action at Fontwell. Gary Moore won with contest in 2015 with Ar Mad at a similar price who was also coming here off the back of a course handicap win, and Le Patron can follow in those footsteps.
2:25 Sandown – Rachael Blackmore Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-150)
JILAIJONE (1pt E/W three places – 10/1 generally)
This race often lends a clue to the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot later on in the month, so readers of recent column’s won’t be surprised I’ve backed Jilaijone here as I’ve advised him ante-post for that race. Off a mark of 125, he’d need some luck to sneak in at the bottom of the weights so a win here (or at the very least a 2lbs rise for going close) would all but confirm his entry.
He went into my notes after his second to Blueing D’Oroux in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle at Cheltenham in October, going down two lengths off level weights splitting always prominent pair. Blueing D’Oroux took the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle on his next start against his elders and is subsequently rated 148 (10lbs higher than meeting Jilaijone). Pipe’s wasn’t disgraced beaten three lengths into 3rd last time out beaten by the Welsh Champion Hurdle 5th Gin Coco and last years County Hurdle winner Faivoir, and I thought Jilaijone was given a dubious enough ride, having tanking his way into the lead at the last before seemingly allowing the pair to go on from him again before Tudor drew the whip and became significantly more animated. That ride smacked of a bigger target and this more valuable contest will likely be it, en-route to the Betfair Trophy.
3:00 Sandown – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
HADDEX DES OBEAUX (0.5pt E/W two places – 20/1 generally)
I’d be surprised if Jonbon doesn’t win as he’s entitled to here, but you shouldn’t be afraid of one horse and Gary Moore’s Haddex Des Obeaux is an interesting contender despite being rated the lowest of the field. Though headed when falling at the last at Cheltenham in October, he wasn’t a sure thing to finish second and it was still a bold effort from the front. That form has worked out well enough given the 4th was second to Stage Star off 152 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (now rated 156) next time out, and the second (Triple Trade) has improved 6lbs since having beat Calico (who was only 5L behind Jonbon last season in the Kingmaker, then he finished third to Boothill in the Jim Berry Hurst Park at Ascot last time out. Those form lines give Haddex Des Obeaux a chance if he can improve for that seasonal debut, and Gary Moore has won the Tingle Creek twice with Sire De Grugy. Haddex Des Obeaux is unbeaten on soft/heavy with Gary Moore so won’t have any ground concerns should it come up that way, and he’ll expose any jumping frailties in the others with his front-running zest.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1.30 Aintree – WAR LORD (1.5pt win – 6/1 generally)
1.50 Sandown – LE PATRON (1pt win – 16/1 Bet365 + William Hill, 14/1 generally)
2.25 Sandown – JILAIJONE (1pt E/W three places – 10/1 generally)
3.00 Sandown – HADDEX DES OBEAUX (0.5pt E/W two places – 20/1 generally)
Last Week’s Pointers
11:45 Fairyhouse – Nick Rockett (4/13) – Walk In The Park x Eireann Rose (Flemensfirth) – Trainer: Willie Mullins.
Nick Rockett wasn’t the only Mullins trained horse to significantly drift and perform below ‘expectations’ this weekend, nor was it the first time Paul Townend came under scrutiny for a ride. I don’t quite think Willie has his ‘top’ ones tuned up yet. Nick Rockett was a revelation last season, winning an ordinary Naas maiden before dotting up by 15L in a G2, won by the likes of Bronn, Al Boum Photo and Acapella Bourgeois. I thought he made a promising debut over fences on Saturday, and would have surely finished closer had Paul Townend not opted to go down the inner to the last two fences, where he was short of room and conceded valuable momentum. That said, he jumped fluently for the most part throughout and the way he kept on after the last suggested he wants the step up in trip he is stoutly bred for. By Walk In The Park out of a Flemensfirth mare who’s related a bunch of stayers, it’s no surprise he gave that impression and he’s an interesting contender for the NHC in March.
11:49 Doncaster – The Electrician (3/7) – Leading Light x Spring Flower (Beneficial) – Trainer: Mike Sowersby.
Connor Rabbit certainly justified his riding fee on The Electrician at Doncaster on Saturday, as he was behind the bridle throughout and required several urgings to prompt him to keep racing. The quirky son of Leading Light caught the eye staying on very strongly after the last, just failing to reel in the always prominent second. It’ll be interested to see what improvement his new handler Mike Sowersby can eek out of him, as he’s a talented type but frustratingly not all that straight forward. Although he’s done his winning in spring, he’s 3lbs below his last winning mark (both wins have come off 87) and the way he stayed on last weekend suggests he may be of interest next time out.
11:55 Newbury – Brave Jen (2/6) – Kayf Tara x Fenney Spring (Polish Precedent) – Trainer: Nicky Henderson.
Nicky Henderson won this contest last season with the smart Luccia and lightning nearly struck twice as Brave Jen was just denied the win at 50/1, failing to reel in the 8/11F who made all. The daughter of Kayf Tara was beaten some 24L on hurdles debut last month after her 3rd wind op, but it was the discarding of the tongue-tie that seemed to do the trick and she’s a mare to keep onside without that aid, particularly upped in distance. Her full sister, Grace Tara, was also 0-5 in a tongue tie.
12:21 Doncaster – Tufton Avenue (5/9) – Valirann x Rosie’s Trix (Luso) – Trainer: Laura Horsfall.
The omission of four hurdles in the 12:21 at Doncaster was a sore sight to behold in truth, however there was some optimism to take out of the performance of Tufton Avenue, who might be one who pops up at a big price in handicaps. He was held up in rear by Richie Mclernon and travelling well enough, before coming home in an eye-catching manner once popped a serious question. He still looks a raw horse, but this Paxford P2P has plenty of scope to mould into a chaser, and he’s a half brother to a 130r type in that sphere.
12:50 Fairyhouse – Irancy (3/14) – Saddex x Nassora (Assessor) – Trainer: Willie Mullins.
The Ballyburn bubble of invincibility took a slight burst to its credentials when failing to overcome the promising Firefox of Gordon Elliott, but it was a slowly run contest in which he wasn’t seen to best effect, and I wouldn’t rip up those Supreme dockets just yet. Outside of the top two, Irancy ran a eye-catching race travelling strongly in touch with the leaders, but likely felt the effects of a 762 day layoff on hurdling debut. A half brother to Darasso, he’ll likely come into his own over further and is one two watch in the green and gold silks throughout the year.
13:40 Newbury – North Lodge (3/10) – Presenting x Saddleeruppat (Saddlers’ Hall) – Trainer: Alan King.
I was possibly naive in thinking North Lodge could take that tough handicap off 11-13 from a 632 day layoff, but he caught the eye travelling ominously three out and it looked as if we were in business. Naturally, he was outpaced by fitter horses once the pace lifted and dropped out of the TV screen. Miraculously, he found a second wind and rallied back up for 3rd, returning some slim EW money for ourselves. That was a very promising run for one off an injury and if Alan King can keep him fit and right, it won’t be long until he’s back in Grade one’s.
2:06 Doncaster – Joe Dadancer (4/5) – Califet x Sister Phoebe (Germany) – Trainer: Ben Pauling.
The eventual 27L defeat of Joe Dadancer criminally underestimates his performance and innate ability. His jumping on chasing debut put the others to shame, but a combination of a layoff and the dolled off fences inevitably took it’s toll. It’s no secret he’s a horse with wind issues, but if he’s come on for that run and the yard can iron out those issues, he’s a very well handicapped horse off this mark. He holds an entry at Sandown this Friday and is likely to be generously priced after that effort, though he does tend to come in for some money. From the family of multiple G1 winner (including ’08 Supreme) Captain Cee Bee, it is surely only a matter of time before he unearths his talents.
2:50 Newbury – Eldorado Allen (4/20) – Khalkevi x Hesmeralda (Royal Charter) – Trainer: Joe Tizzard.
Eldorado Allen gave us another good run for our money in the Coral Gold Cup last weekend. He travelled and jumped with aplomb up the inner, but lacked that gear at a crucial stage causing him to be outpaced three out. However, the way in which he stayed on suggested that he’s ready for even further now at this stage of his career, and his back-class could shape him into a strong stayer for the likes of the National and Cross-Country events. He’s a half brother to a Punchestown Banks winner over 4m1f who was placed behind Tiger Roll in the XC at the Cheltenham Festival in 2018, so it would come as no surprise should the yard attempt to follow in those familiar footsteps going forward.
10 To Follow – Matt Sutcliffe’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Matt Sutcliffe is the next to give his selections, which include an old favourite of his from the Syd Hosie yard, plus a Nicky Henderson horse he’s backing to win the 2024 Triumph…
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