GG’s latest recruit Matthew Sutcliffe gives an in-depth look at the horses to take out of last weekend’s races, before giving a couple of big-priced selections for Saturday’s action.
Matt struck with 5/1 Sandown winner Dual Identity last week (advised 1.5pt E/W at 10/1) and gives three tips for Saturday’s action. They include one in the Betfair Sprint Cup he’s keen on at a big price!
Published: 1.35pm 6th September (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 5.13pm 6th September (Regal Reality selection added)
Updated: 3.15pm 7th September (Denmark selection added)
Pointers
SATURDAY
Sandown 13:50 – King Cabo (2/9) – Carpe Diem x Cabo Queen (More Than Ready) – Trainer: Luke Dace.
King Cabo saw a plethora of strong money at Sandown just before the off which saw him start as the 10/3 favourite. Given his best form has come on either good/firm going or the all-weather, the slightly rain softened turf perhaps dampened his efforts in the finish. The fact he didn’t break well won’t have aided his cause either as he’s a horse who’s shown he needs to lead early to win. He still kept on well there, and the winner recorded a personal best, so the influx of money he was subject to was likely justified, and it’ll be interesting to see if his backers return. He has an entry at Kempton this Saturday in the London Mile Series Final Handicap for qualified horses, and given he’s a C&D winner, it wouldn’t be surprised to see him turned out again for that race.
Chester 14:25 – Another Baar (4/11) – Mayson x Rapid Recruit (Fast Company) – Trainer: Adrian Keatley.
It’s no secret that Franny Norton rides Chester well, but the one he gave Another Baar smacked of ‘one for another day’. The gelding broke well from his draw in two and had a prominent pitch one off the rail for the first part of the race, prime Norton conditions. However, he was mysteriously angled out wide for a run and conceded plenty of ground while the two he was originally in behind stuck on the rail which aided their cause. All things considered, it was a promising run despite the dubious ride as he stayed on well outside for fourth off top-weight. He also didn’t seem all that comfortable around the tight left handed track, and given all three of his wins have come right-handed, he’ll be off interest next time out provided he’s going clockwise.
Sandown 15:00 – Certain Lad (2/14) – Clodivil x Chelsey Jane (Galileo) – Trainer: Jack Channon.
Certain Lad never threatened the winner Dual Identity, who was evidently laid out for the contest having finished 2nd last year, but there was plenty of positives to take from his 2nd to that rival. Channon’s mount sweated up in the preliminaries and George Bass never got him in a rhythm throughout the race having led early before being reigned back into midfield. Marco Ghiani was already well animated in the saddle on Dual Identity who raced in tandem with Certain Lad in midfield, and conceded first run while George Bass was still holding onto his mount who was short of rom once those around him began their challenges. Despite those unfavourable exertions, he was able to finish well down the outside for 2nd, clocking the quickest final furlong of the field and posting the best RPR of the contest (108). The handicapper has left him untouched off 101, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him aimed at the Kilkerran Cup at Ayr, a race he took In 2019 off 3lbs higher.
Beverley 15:15 (3/12) – Ben Macdui – Kodiac x Candiland (Shamardal) – Trainer: Paul Midgley.
Consistency isn’t a term in the Ben Macdui dictionary, but that’s largely due to his inflated rating from his two year old day’s. Second in the G3 Molecomb saw him rated 101 and he began handicaps off 93, not winning another race until 13lbs lower off a mark of 80. He lost his way for Kevin Ryan and was moved Paul Midgley in March, where it took him six races to get in the winners enclosure for his new handler after having wind surgery. He was very unlucky not to follow that win up from 4lbs higher up in grade at Beverley last weekend, when denied a clear run on the rails behind a stablemate before flashing home, just failing to get up. It seems that the wind surgery has done the trick and given he remains very well handicapped on his older form off a mark of 66, I’ll be keeping him onside for next time.
Beverley 15:50 – Supreme Beauty (3/7) – No Nay Never x Park Bloom (Galileo) – Trainer: James Horton.
It’s been a rough ride for James Horton over the last few months, whose fantastic training progress has been marred by the John Dance ownership issues. There has been signs of life back in the yard recently however, and Supreme Beauty backed up that assertion with a promising 3rd on debut in a race which should work out nicely. The beautifully bred daughter of No Nay Never was sluggish from the breaks and lost two lengths, putting her on the back-foot immediately. She travelled well into the contest thereafter, and had to come wide around the field to make her move. She could only manage 3rd and did have first run on the winner, but she shaped as if improving a ton for her debut and given she recorded the quickest second furlong and 2nd (by 0.2s) quickest final three furlongs, there was plenty there to suggest she will be a nice type for James Horton.
Sandown 16:45 Rating (2/9) – Profitable x Savoy Showgirl (Kyllachy) – Trainer: Brian Meehan.
This daughter of Profitable has ran into several subsequent winners in her six-raced career and she showed her turn is near with a career best performance at Sandown, splitting two previous winners with good form. She fared the best of those racing prominently with the 1st and 3rd coming from the rear (top three pulled 6L clear) and kept on well. She’s back up 2lbs but I think she’ll be one for AW nurseries within the next month given she showed promise on her 2nd start at Kempton (1 1/2L 3rd), likely to pick up a class four contest.
Weekend Punts
SATURDAY
13:45 Kempton – Unibet September Stakes
MODAARA (20/1 William Hill, 12/1 generally – 1pt E/W three places)
*NON-RUNNER AS WASN’T DECLARED ON THURSDAY*
Modaara has twice been a runner on unsuitable good to firm ground recently when 6s and 8s in listed company at York/Windsor. The Varian team seem keen to get her out, and they may have found her an excellent opportunity on the all-weather where she is 2-2. The full-sister to Benbatl look something out of the ordinary over C&D when bolting up by thirteen lengths carrying a weight and a winners penalty in May. Jack Mitchell was very complimentary about her in his post-race interview, describing her as ‘special’, noting “you won’t be seeing her in handicaps”. Now, if we all backed a runner on the basis of a jockey’s praise then we’d all be skint, however there was certainly a twinkle in his eye and she could hardly have been anymore impressive. Given her withdrawal on GF ground the last twice, we can forgive her 5th/5th in listed company at Haydock next time out, where she hung left and looked awkward on the going. She was sent off 10-3 there and only beaten four lengths, with the form working out well too. The winner, Sea Silk Road, was a 4L 5th in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks with the 3rd Poptronic not far behind her there (had won a G2 since). While it may be foolish to take on the Gosden’s who have farmed this contest in recent years, Modaara has a touch of star quality about her, and Roger Varian’s string excel around this time of year. September seems to be the key month for progeny of Nahrain, who herself won a G1 in Belmont in September ‘12, Benbatl’s highest RPR came when taking the Joel Stakes at Newmarket in September ’19, Fooraat was 3rd (104 RPR) in the listed Rosemary Stakes in September ’21, and the once raced Jammrah won her only start in September ’21.
13:50 Haydock – Superior Mile Stakes
REGAL REALITY (9/1 generally – 1pt win)
Sir Michael Stoute has won this contest a leading three times since it’s introduction to the racing calendar in 2003 and sends Sovereign Stakes 3rd Regal Reality in a bid to make that four. Stoute’s last two winners of the Superior Mile had previously contested the Sovereign Stakes, with Ballet Concerto doing the double in 2017 and Confront having finished 2nd in the race in 2009. Regal Reality was 3rd in that race after his somewhat comfortable success in the G3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom in June, with the drop back to a mile seemingly suiting well having raced between 1m2f-1m4f during last season. He was only beaten half a length there behind the dead-heated pair Embesto and Mighty Ulysses. The former’s only career defeat came against the talented Nostrum, while the latter was a close 5th in the G1 St James’ Palace last season and the last horse to beat the now 120 rated (and Irish Champion Stakes bound) Alflaila. Regal Reality gave 8lbs and 3lbs to the pair, recording the best RPR in the contest. Five of his career wins have come in Group 3 company (other was his maiden) and his record in G3’s over a mile now reads 13113 (1313 if you’re not willing to count the 1/2F at Epsom..). Four of his six wins have come on GF ground so Saturday’s conditions should be perfect. The Superior Mile Stakes often see’s just a handful of runners, so four of his five wins in G3 company have come in fields of 6, that further boasts his claims.
14:25 Haydock – Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap (Class 2)
DENMARK – (3/1 generally – 2pt win)
Four of the last five winners of this contest were all beaten in the Melrose at York in their run prior, which immediately draws the eye to Denmark, Lordship, The Goat, Edge Of Darkness and Davideo. From that quintet, Aidan O’Brien’s Denmark is the one I’m siding with here, who is a rare runner for the yard at the Merseyside venue. The son of Camelot was a pointer from last weeks column after his fine 2nd in the Melrose, where I noted “it paid to be held up off a strong pace…with the 1st, 3rd, and 4th all coming from the last four places on the turn for home.” His performance can be upgraded markedly there where he was giving the winner 4lbs who’s now shot to the fore of the St. Leger market. Denmark recorded the best RPR in the Melrose (108), and a replication of that rating in this handicap would rate the joint highest in the last ten renewals. We’ve only seen Denmark four times, with breaks of 61, 183 and 146 days in between, so it’s only a positive sign that he’s backed up this quickly and his subsequent Melbourne Cup entry suggests a 5lbs rise is lenient for this unexposed stayer.
15:35 Haydock – Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes
RUN TO FREEDOM (20/1 generally – 1pt E/W four places)
Sentiment will kill you in this game, but I’m willing to die on the Run To Freedom hill. Henry Candy’s son of Muhaarar was Ascot NAP, but he didn’t get the breaks and ran below par. Despite deserting him next time out in the July Cup, I was thrilled to see him run a personal best on RPR’s behind to re-opposing Shaquille. He traded the in-running favourite at one stage there, but his early keenness left him with not enough petrol to see the contest out, collared only by the excellent Shaquille. It will be tough to reverse the form with him however his price is ridiculous from an each way players perspective. He’s a horse who’s saved his best form for the latter end of the season and I certainly don’t think we’ve seen the best of him just yet. In behind him at Newmarket was Kinross, who’s come out and won two G2’s since, yet is somehow twelve points shorter to reverse the placings with Run To Freedom. The fact he was 4th/4 over C&D at the start of the year may be a factor in his price, however I’m happy to draw a line through that as he’s 0-3 when fresh. To further suggest his price isn’t an accurate reflection of his chances, he had to give Shaquille 6lbs at Newmarket whereas he’s 4lbs better off with him this time around. 4lbs swing for a 1 1/4L gap is enough to be enthusiastic about our winning chances let alone placing, with the firmer conditions certainly in our favour.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
SATURDAY
1.45 Kempton – MODAARA (1pt E/W three places – 20/1 William Hill, 12/1 generally) *NOT DECLARED ON THURSDAY*
1.50 Haydock – REGAL REALITY (1pt win – 9/1 generally)
2.25 Haydock – DENMARK (2pt win – 3/1 generally)
3.35 Haydock – RUN TO FREEDOM (1pt E/W three places – 20/1 generally)
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