With Ascot and York both live on ITV on Saturday, Matty Sutcliffe was always going to be busy. He has seven top tips for you for value bets on the day, including a trio of 25/1 shots and one of his “biggest ever fancies for GG.”
1:40 Ascot – Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo) – Daneh Of Dandy 16/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Trainers are habitual creatures, often the embodiment of the term ‘if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”, so given James Tate landed this with Under The Stars in 2019 then DANEH OF DANDY has to be considered having won the same Ripon Novice on debut as his stable mate did en-route to here.
The daughter of Dandy Man was weak in the market there, but she duly became James Tate’s first juvenile success of the season in good style. She broke a touch slowly in rear but perhaps that was the plan thus giving her an educational ride, which was certainly the case as she travelled strongly covered up in behind leaders and it was clear to see how well she was travelling, before Billy Loughnane merely nudged her out for a comfortable length success, pulling six lengths clear of the third.
Visually, it was a pleasing performance and you’d have to expect her to come on regardless for that effort. She has something to find on form with those who contested Royal Ascot or listed contests last time out, but the professionalism with which she went through her race at Ripon suggests she could have just as much potential as those and is taken to make a big step forward here.
2:00 York – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Indian Run 25/1 0.5pt EW 5 places + Sophia’s Starlight 33/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Pocklington would be the obvious play in here for me but he hasn’t been missed in the ante-post market having opened up plenty bigger earlier in the week and he’s getting into short enough territory for a competitive handicap of this nature.
Julie Camacho has her string in fine fettle of late and when the yard gets firing they rarely miss while the iron’s hot, so it may pay to chance INDIAN RUN, who’s ran some promising races in defeat since being gelded and dropped to six furlongs for his new yard.
He caught the eye travelling well on seasonal debut at Newmarket when blowing up late on in the manner of one needing the run, and it was a similar scenario next time out for all he was only beaten a length. He travelled strongly on the far-side at Newmarket and marginally led the field a furlong out, but just weakened late on to finish sixth. That form has worked out seriously well, the winner (More Thunder) is now rated 11lbs higher, the second (Aramram) is rated 7lbs higher, and the sixth was beaten a short head in a Curragh G2 next time out.
He was then only beaten a length by Aramaram with Run Boy Run again half a length in front in second and he was arguably ridden a touch too conservative there. Elmojed was half a length behind him there and Indian Run has a 2lbs swing with that one despite Elmonjed priced up as the favourite here.
There didn’t appear to be any obvious excuse for his fourth at Windsor when behind Elmonjed albeit only two lengths, however he didn’t look all that in love with that sharper track and a subsequent wind operation may spark further improvement.
He returns here for the second time since his Acomb Stakes success as a two year old and while he’s yet to add to that, it would be no surprise to see him going close with the yard in strong form.
I’d also like to be on SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT here, as the recent deluge of rain at York may see her competitive enough to take her chances here. There’s a strong lack of early pace in this contest with only Aleezdancer (stall two) likely to attempt to make the running as he did at Pontefract last time out for all he’s usually reigned back behind leaders, so there’s the possibility that Sophia’s Starlight could be given a freebie in her near-side group.
The daughter of Hunter’s Light has a fantastic record in turf handicaps, reading 31311521911 (6-11), with the sole poor effort coming over seven furlongs on good to firm ground under a six pound penalty having won the Great St Wilfrid five days prior, which is easily excusable.
She may need it genuine soft to be seen to best effect, but she’s only two pounds above her latest success in handicaps which came off top-weight at Pontefact last October when making all with ease, and I’ve been keen to back her ever since her eighth in listed company at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting. There was a huge bias there as front runners had no chance in the strong headwind, so it was a testament to her ability that she hung in there for so long as well as being hampered late on, so her finishing position/distance can be upgraded.
The others to have noted to have been prominent in that race have franked the form, with the seventh having form figures of 2212 since, latterly beaten a neck in the G1 King Charles, the sixth was beaten a head in Listed company at Chester next time out and the fifth landed a G2 at the Curragh next time out.
She’s been off since a poor effort at Southwell in April but she rarely shows up well on the allweather and was posted wide throughout, so I’m happy to chance her here with a proven record after a break in a contest with very little early pace.
2:20 Ascot – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Pina Sonata 10/1 1pt WIN
I’ve been waiting for what feels like an age to back PINA SONATA, who was immediately earmarked as a black type filly by James Fanshawe after she bolted up in a Leicester Novice in May under a penalty.
The daughter of Pinatubo landed a Wolverhampton Fillies Stakes on seasonal debut in April in an impressive manner, having travelled upside Miss Justice under hands and heels and winning without barely being touched. The winner has since franked that form albeit only rated 85, but the pair pulled twelve lengths clear of the third, and the fourth has also won since to now be rated 85.
Pina Sonata was sent of 8/13F next time out at Leicester, and while she was entitled to win, she overcame some serious early keenness having not had cover throughout. Naturally, most horses blow up late on having pulled that hard in the early stages but Pina Sonata caught the eye still travelling well behind Alfareqa and once given an inch of reign, she pulled away in a devastating manner once again under hands and heels.
She appeals as the type to be suited to a better quality of race in order to settle easier and while she has to prove she’s up to this level against some that have already acquitted them well in black type contests, she’s gone well under the radar here as I’d make her one of those most exciting fillies in training.
2:40 York – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Stanhope Gardens 4/1 2pt WIN
If it was a quieter week with fewer selections I’d be making this one of the strongest selections I’ve had on GG, but I’d be surprised if STANHOPE GARDENS doesn’t shorten up to be 2/1-7/4 on the day and the general 4/1 should be taken immediately despite shortening since the markets opened.
Almaqam is the glaringly obvious danger, as his form when beating Ombudsman is arguably the best on offer here. That said, that was Ombudsman’s seasonal debut and he looked reluctant enough to go past Almaqam who had the benefit of the run, which is worth noting came when being beaten by Al Aasy.
Fellow three-year-old Bay City Roller has to be a danger after his latest two efforts, but Stanhope Gardens has to be backed dropping down in trip here and I’d be of the opinion he has the quality to contest the Juddmonte next month.
He made his debut behind Ruling Court last July when staying on over what was clearly an inadequate trip, but he backed that up with a comfortable win at Beverley before going down by a neck to Delacroix in the Autumn Stakes, with the winner having the benefit of the near-side rail and subsequently going on to be arguably the best 10F colt in Europe.
He was flagged as Beckett’s Derby horse but had an interrupted passage, only reappearing in May in a conditions stakes at Salisbury designed to essentially be a penalty kick for him. I thought his run in the Derby was exceptional, particularly given his prep and the fact he had another niggle the week before. He was toward the rear on the inner and travelled up strongly, but once the pace lifted and he tackled the camber he looked all at sea, hanging left down the straight after and just weakening late on after an initial smart turn of foot.
He clocked the quickest top speed there and the fourth fastest finishing speed percentage, but his low stride cadence backed up the visual suspicion he failed to handle the track. In spite of all that, he was still only beaten five lengths into fifth and the form has worked out seriously well. The runaway winner followed up in the Irish Derby, the second was third in the Irish Derby, the third was fourth in the Irish Derby, the fourth was third in the Grand Prix De Paris, the sixth was second in the Hampton Court, the seventh was beaten four lengths in the King Edward VII, the eighth was second in the Bahrain Trophy, and the ninth won the Eclipse.
The drop back to ten furlongs looks the obvious move with Stanhope Gardens and if replicating that Derby run, he can use his 3yo allowance to good effect and take this cosily now with an uninterrupted preparation.
3:00 Ascot – Moet & Chandon International Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Sword 25/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
As ever in this contest, finding the winner looks to be a lottery so I’m holding just the one ticket here in the form of SWORD for David O’Meara and Mark Winn. The son of Kingman failed to live up to his 500,000GNS price tag for the Gosdens, who clearly liked him enough to be sent off the 2/1F at Newmarket last season in a race won by stablemate Ombudsman.
His attitude was that of a typical Kingman who can hold their heads awkwardly and look a touch sour with the game, but David O’Meara has a knack of ironing out those quirks when acquiring these types from the bigger yards and when equipped with a first time hood, he broke his turf maiden on his second start for the yard when landing a Leicester handicap.
The form was nothing to shout about but he at least proved he has the ability to land a race which he did rather cosily, and his two subsequent starts since have smacked of a bigger target. He was poorly positioned in rear at Haydock next time out when given an impossible task to reel in the long time leader Desert Falcons, and a week later he was again set a stiff task in rear at York and conveniently finding trouble in running once getting in to stride, only beaten two lengths into seventh.
O’Meara/Winn had New Image finish second in this contest last season who was also coming off the back of a class three handicap at York, the fourth from the 2023 renewal Northern Express had previously won the same handicap Sword contested en-route and he was also second at York when fourth previously here in 2022, so it can be a proven path and while Sword has to improve on form to take this, a big field handicap of this nature off bottom-weight should suit him strongly, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him find a chunk of improvement if getting the gaps.
3:35 Ascot – Betfred Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Hickory 25/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
It’s interesting that HICKORY wasn’t given the option of contesting the Moet & Chandon International Handicap earlier on the card given he was second in it off a mark of 87 in 2023 and beaten two lengths in it off a mark of 88 last season, and instead takes his chance in this slightly easier contest over a mile.
He’s completely unexposed over this distance with just two runs, once when not firing at Kempton last October of top-weight and the other was at Sandown earlier this season in the Whitson Cup, where he stayed on strongly from last from an impossible position to somehow grab third behind the pair that raced first and second throughout.
He was fastest through each of the final four furlongs there and clocked the highest finishing speed percentage of 104.13% in what was admittedly a race dominated by Jack Doughty on the front end, but he proved he certainly stays the mile which bodes well for this step back up in trip.
He’s not been seen to best effect in three efforts since, but he’s only a pound higher than his Victoria Cup success on seasonal debut this term and he’s likely to have been campaigned with a pot of this nature in mind, particularly given his Ascot record reads 230471.
Jamie Spencer is booked for his first ride for the yard since 2021 with Saffie Osborne riding at Salisbury for the yard instead, and his style fits that of the horse perfectly.
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