Across Ayr and Newbury on Saturday there is some high quality racing, with the Ayr Gold Cup and Mill Reef Stakes the two headline contests. Matty Sutcliffe has looked to the undercards for his value bets though, with four in all to follow…
1:15 Ayr – Ladbrokes “Free Bet At Ayr” Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100) – Arctic Grey 16/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Three-year-olds have taken four of the last ten renewals of this contest including the Richard Hannon trained Mutasayyid, so ARCTIC GREY is taken to rediscover the strong form he dismayed earlier on in the season.
The Dark Angel gelding lowered the colours of the 2/7F at Southwell on debut in April before bumping into Sallaal at Hamilton, with the winner now rated 103 having landed a competitive class two handicap before placing third in Listed company yesterday.
He then won at Goodwood on handicap debut when beating Fort George by a neck giving him 2lbs, who’s now rated 100 after a third in a Goodwood Festival handicap before cosily taking a class three at Newbury from 9lbs lower.
Arctic Grey failed to land a blow in the Britannia or in class three company at Southwell over seven furlongs, but both of those efforts were on a firmer surface and he somewhat bounced back to form at Ascot earlier this month on soft going over seven furlongs when beaten four lengths in a trappy classified stakes. That was his first run after a gelding operation and after a 62 day layoff, so hopefully he can strip fitter going back up in trip as this mark of 88 is more than workable on his Hamilton and Goodwood form.
1:30 Newbury – Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – First Instinct 8/1 1pt WIN
A progressive three-year-old filly in No Half Measures took this last season and FIRST INSTINCT can follow in her footsteps. The She was two from three last season including on a softer surface under a penalty with her sole defeat coming in the G3 Oh So Sharp stakes when failing to stay the trip under a keen hold.
She reappeared this season with a two lengths third in listed company at Bath despite being kicked at the start, finishing a length behind Frost At Dawn who’s since hit the frame in the King George, King Charles and the Nunthorpe. First Instinct got back to winning ways when taking a Listed race at Cork with the second and fourth franking that form, and she put up a career best effort when beaten 3/4l in the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes. That’s arguably the best form on offer here as the winner was beaten three lengths in the July Cup next time out, the fourth Big Mojo was second there before landing the Sprint Cup, the fifth was second in the Nunthorpe and the sixth won the Flying Five.
Though she’s been slightly below that form in three runs since, she was unsuited by coming off the pace in the Beverley Bullet but that did come after a 50-day layoff, so she’s entitled to strip fitter now and take her record second time up to three from three, particularly if returning to that Sandy Lane third.
2:05 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Majestic Warrior 6/1 1.5pt WIN
Our Ebor Handicap selection MAJESTIC WARRIOR just failed to land a place when finishing an eventual seventh there last time out, but it was still a career best performance in a race which generally favoured those held up or in touch as opposed to those racing prominently. He marginally hit the front two out, but paid way to those held up and weakened late on to only be beaten five lengths.
He was entitled to need that run having come up against race fit types off a 133 day layoff, though his previous effort did come from a 698 day break when bolting up at Thirsk in April. He too his record to three from four there with the sole defeat coming behind some smart three year olds in 2023, but he backed that effort up with a five lengths route at Wolverhampton from one now rated 94 so if he doesn’t bounce here, then he looks to have a strong chance dropping back into an easier contest.
James Tate is in tremendous form with eight of his last eleven runners winning, and given Majestic Warrior is a half brother to both Fujairia Prince and Nichols Canyon, any softer going shouldn’t pose an issue.
2:40 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Theory Of Tides 10/1 1pt EW 3 places
Galileo gelding THEORY OF TIDES was promising for the Gosden’s last season having landed his first two starts including under a penalty on good to soft ground at Yarmouth, and it spoke volumes that he was their sole representative in the King Edward VIII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He failed to give his running there, and it may have taken a mental effect given he was beaten out of sight in two subsequent handicaps.
He was gelded a week or so later and put away for the season, before returning with an eyecatching fourth in a competitive York handicap earlier this month. Despite being relatively unfancied at 22/1, he travelled strongly in rear under Robert Havlin and caught the eye two out, but he was unfavourably switched left across the track to the far-side rail conceding plenty of ground in the straight to his rivals and despite hitting the front, he weakened in the last hundred yards to be beaten by three fast finishers up the near-side.
He can reverse the form with Dante’s Lad on that basis, and should he strip fitter for that 360-day layoff then this Cambridgeshire entered gelding can return to winning ways.
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