Saturday’s racing comes in part from Ascot and York on ITV, and Matty Sutcliffe has four early selections for you to get your teeth into.
Published: 1.42pm, Tuesday, 23rd July (Prices correct at time of publishing)
2:05 York – Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-80) – Soul Seeker 20/1 0.5pt EW (4 places) + Strong Johnson 14/1 1pt EW (4 places)
David O’Meara landed an almighty plot with Blue For You at York a couple weeks ago, who’s form since winning the same race last season read 000070400 prior to suddenly bouncing back to form at York. SOUL SEEKER has won the Jump Jockeys Nunthorpe twice, once last season off a mark of 66, and in 2021 off a mark of 83. His form since winning the race last season reads 21310000400, so not too dissimilar to that of Blue For You except Soul Seeker was evidently still ahead of his mark even after winning the race last season.
While this selection requires a serious amount of faith, the proven capability of David O’Meara to rediscover a horses best form to target a certain race is more than enough for me to sweep the recent form of Soul Seeker under the rug, particularly now that he’s only 2lbs below his mark when winning the race last season, and 7lbs below his last winning mark.
He won the race last season by making all in a first time combined cheek-pieces and tongue strap (had won them on individual occasions prior, so the fact that he’s raced in rear on all of his six starts this season speaks volumes the intent, not least the fact he’s been ran on soft/heavy ground when all of his wins have come on good/good-to-firm. The tongue strap was missing last time out when beaten seven lengths, so should the combination return on Saturday as well as the prominent tactics, then we can expect a sudden bounce back to form in a Blue For You-esque fashion.
The other I’d like to play is STRONG JOHNSON, who’s handler Paul Midgley has won this race three times since it’s inception. The son of Le Cadre Noir was a smart handicapper in Ireland in his youth, peaking at a rating off 100 three years ago before going off the boil and switching yards across the Irish Sea to Paul Midgley. It took him eight starts and a drop of 19lbs in the weights before he eventually gained the winning thread when a well backed 5/2F at Redcar last August, and subsequently climbed back up to a mark of 86 in November after a further two subsequent wins off 79 and 82.
While he’s winless in ten starts since, that’s represented through an 8lbs drop in the weights to a mark of 74, and I thought he was very leniently dropped a pound for a huge effort in a class three at Thirsk earlier this month. He was one of two leaders to go a quick gallop early on, clocking two sub-eleven second furlongs and only just weakening in the last half furlong to be beaten two lengths by horses rated 87, 91, 84, and 92, finishing ahead of four horses rated between 83-89. That form is arguably the strongest on offer in this lineup, given the 4th and 2nd were subsequently 3rd and 4th in an 18K C2 at Hamilton next time out, and the 3rd was only beaten three lengths in the Bunbury Cup next time out.
Strong Johnson drops in grade and will face no horse rated beyond a mark of 81 (prior to declarations), so a repeat of that effort at Thirsk could see him run riot in this field with the drop back in trip to suit. It’s a touch concerning that he was beaten five lengths in this race last season off a pound higher mark, but the 1st and 2nd had led from flag fall so perhaps it didn’t suit to race in rear. With that in mind, I’d be interested to see whether any headgear is opted for (has won in a tongue strap) particularly give two of Midgely’s three winners in the contest wore a visor, as he could be let loose on the front end which he seemed to enjoy at Thirsk last time out.
2:25 Ascot – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Sirona 6/1 1.5pt WIN
SIRONA posted a career best performance last time out when a staying on fifth in the G1 Falmouth having initially missed the break. The eventual finishing position is much better than it initially suggests, given you could through a blanket over the four in behind the winner, who was in a league of her own given she rattled off a hat-trick of group one wins in the process.
To finish right amongst horses rated 108-105, giving away 9lbs to two of them in the process, suggests Sirona is progressing rapidly for David Menuisier and her RPR of 111 there was higher than any of the other runners top achieved RPR in this field in their career. In that respect, I’d have made her a 3/1 poke at this stage in the week and should she be declared I can see her shortening towards that price come the off.
While she’d be aided by any rain this week, she brings miles the best form on offer and can break her group duck now dropping back two grades at the mile trip. Oisin Murphy has provisionally been jocked up and rode her on her penultimate effort at Haydock when a staying on one length second behind geldings in the John Of Gaunt Stakes, so having him back on top will be a massive bonus, and I think the round course will suit her style of running as it can pay to be held up and swing wide off the bend.
She takes on some progressive and unexposed three year olds, but this race can suit the older types as it did last season with a five year old coming off the back of a defeat in the Falmouth, and I’ve no doubt that should Sirona replicate – let alone improve on – that form from last time then she can take this cosily.
Added: 1.20pm, Thursday, 25th July (Prices correct at time of publishing)
2:40 York – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Dare To Hope 10/1 1pt EW 4 places
With an abundance of prominent racers combined with multiple confirmed front runners, this looks a good opportunity to play something that prefers to be held up and has a tendency to be keen. DARE TO HOPE fits the bill for Richard Fahey, who’s been a consistent sort in handicaps of late.
Although he was beaten four lengths in the Ayr Gold Cup Trial last time out, they perhaps made too much use of him early on, and he would’ve had to put up a monster performance to take the race off top-weight carrying 10-2. He will appreciate carrying over a stone less this time around, and as the race will seemingly be run to suit, now looks the time to catch him.
He rarely does much in front and has to be delivered perfectly, as demonstrated when beating some subsequent winners at Beverley over five furlongs in April. He was then only beaten a neck by Manilla Scouse at Hamilton last month in a race that’s working out well, before being beaten 3/4L at Chester when just failing to reel in the runaway leader Radio Goo Goo. He’s better off at the weights with both Manilla Scouse and Radio Goo Goo who are both likely to show up well here, particularly given the former was a runner up in this race last season.
Despite the track being a relatively straightforward one with no undulations and little bias, York is still very much a ‘horses for courses’ type of track, so the fact that Dare To Hope has C&D figures of 243, including being beaten two lengths in the valuable Harry Beeby Yearling Stakes, suggests that the long awaited return here will suit.
3:00 Ascot – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Fresh 10/1 2pt (NAP) EW 5 places
FRESH was a neck winner of this contest in 2022 off a 7lbs higher mark, and was somewhat unlucky in his repeat bid last season off a mark of 101. He fared much better than his eventual finishing position, beaten six lengths in to eleventh having been unfavourably berthed in stall four. He finished third in his group of fourteen up the far-side, with the first five home all having been favoured by their draws between stalls 19-26 on the near-side.
Fresh was also potentially high enough in the weights after a productive 2022 campaign, but now he returns 10lbs lower than his effort last season and crucially, he’s drawn high in 18. He’s followed a similar prep this season as he had done the last twice, starting over six furlongs at Kempton in April before course starts over seven furlongs then six, and he was an eyecatcher in the Buckingham Palace Stakes when not granted a clear run and only finishing four lengths behind the second (winner was a group horse in waiting).
He bounced right back to form over six furlongs here last time out when second to an unexposed three-year-old, and that suggests he’s now just coming to the boil. The in-form Billy Loughnane takes the ride which is a positive as I’d imagine he would’ve been in high demand for a contest of this nature, and I’d be shocked should we at least not get a run for out money given he’s running off his lowest mark since 2021, which coincidentally came when winning a course handicap.
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