Ahead of day one of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket on Thursday, Matty Sutcliffe has picked out three value bets to follow.
3:00 Newmarket – British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Lady Roxby 6/1 1pt WIN
Though it has paid to be drawn middle to low in this contest of late, LADY ROXBY is drawn well in between pace angles of Angel Shared and Shallow to be given a good toe into the contest from stall nine and belatedly get back to winning ways.
The daughter of King Of Change has form figures of 21202 since switching yards to Michael Herrington, with the sole blip coming in a competitive Fillies’ Handicap at the Ebor Festival when not persevered with once her winning chance had diminished.
While I would say we could forgive a horse for one run at York, prior to that she ran a blinder there over half a furlong further when faring best of the hold up horses with the others noted to have raced in rear finishing eight, twelfth, fourteenth and fifteenth. Lady Roxby had to suffer for room and switch sharply left once in the clear whereas the eventual winner had already got going with her run, beaten a neck by her who’s now rated 13lbs higher having fared when in Listed company last weekend.
Lady Roxby bounced back from her subsequent York defeat when again just denied a nose at Yarmouth having fared best of those off the pace with the 1st, 2nd, and 4th all racing up with the van throughout. In another stride she’d have got the win but she also proved she can cope with this step up to six furlongs, and given her latest success came around the stiff nature of Beverley then this Rowley Mile can bring out further improvement, with a mark of 84 still more than workable on recent evidence.
3:35 Newmarket – Tattersalls Stakes (Registered As The Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo) – Wechaad 15/2 1pt WIN
The St Leger meeting has proved a strong pathway to landing this contest in recent years, particularly the seven furlong nursery on the Thursday which was won by Modern Games in 2021 and Arctic Sound in 2018, with both of those successfully following up in this contest.
This year’s renewal was won in a facile manner by WECHAAD, who despite taking a keen hold throughout in rear, made smart headway on the far-side flank to put the race to bed almost immediately within a matter of strides to win three lengths to the good eased down.
That was no fluke, as he proved a potential smart type when a length third to Words Of Truth as Ascot in July faring best of those to come from rear, with the winner going in again under a penalty before cosily landing the Mill Reef, pulling five lengths clear from the third and now rated 112.
That collateral piece of form suggests he won’t have all that much to find with hot favourite Distant Storm (100r), who’ll have to settle much better than when blowing his head off in the Acomb Stakes and this progressive son of Oasis Dream can give Roger Varian his first Somerville Stakes.
4:10 Newmarket – Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Live Your Dream 3/1 2pt WIN
German Derby winner Palladium might struggle to replicate his seven length route at Salisbury if the drying forecast prevails, therefore a chance is taking on the talented yet fragile LIVE YOUR DREAM to make a successful reappearance.
Saaeed Bin Suroor has always thrived in readying one from a layoff so the 732-day absence isn’t a major concern, particularly given he made a winning handicap debut in 2021 from a 571 day absence and was just touched off in 0-105 company in 2023 from a 609 day layoff. He took his form to a new level that year, finishing third in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot prior to taking the Bet 365 Trophy on the July Course off top-weight. He then finished a length third off top-weight in the Ebor Handicap behind Absurde and Sweet William, before finishing a two-length fifth in an Italian Group 1.
He brings the classiest back form into this contest along with stamina proven for this distance, so if returning on song it would be a surprise to see him fail to go very close in what looks a very winnable Rose Bowl Stakes.
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