Three northern tracks host races on ITV this weekend, giving plenty of food for thought for Matty Sutcliffe. He has five best bets across the cards, with a 50/1 shot catching the eye at York.
1:30 York – William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-78) – Beyond Borders 50/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Stalls 15, 18, 12 and 14 filled the first four home in this race last season with the field coming towards the nearside, so we shouldn’t be put off by a double figure draw and if taking the view that BEYOND BORDERS will strip fitter for his first two starts for the Kevin Frost yard, then he looks a knocking bet at 50/1.
He was stuffed at Ripon on his first start after a gelding operation and a 264 day layoff, but he wasn’t entirely disgraced when beaten five lengths next time out when ridden in rear under a very tender ride (hands and heels stuff!) by Tom Eaves.
That signalled a potential return to form, and he’s already 4lbs lower than his reappearance, 7lbs factoring in William Pyle’s claim. You’ve only got to go back three starts to see he was beaten a length in a 25k C2 at Chester from stall ten when a huge eye-catcher having been denied a run on multiple occasions, and I’d have that form alone the best of late in this lineup.
His six-length second to James’s Delight at Pontefract last April reads remarkably well now that one’s rated 109, and while it could be a simple case of he’s not trained on, should he come to life now in a valuable race for the grade then it’s very tricky not to envisage him running well on all known form up until this season.
*Odds Subject To Change
2:10 Chester – Ladbrokes Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Holguin 16/1 0.5pt EW 4 places + Cerulean Bay 16/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
A wide draw is the main concern with HOLGUIN, but with a lack of pace drawn low then he might be able to overcome such an obstacle provided he’s sharp away.
The son of Havana Grey was a smart type for Andrew Balding in his younger days, placing in both the 300k 2yo stakes at Doncaster and the Redcar 2yo Trophy, before his form figures as a 3yo read 2226144. They included a C&D win on soft ground here when rated 108, and a four length defeat to Kinross in the Lennox Stakes rated 111.
He changed hands and was far from disgraced in a Doha G2 worth 224k to the winner when beaten four lengths having been hampered late on, and he landed a 16k conditions race in France prior to finishing four lengths behind formerly smart UK handicapper Dark Trooper only three starts ago.
He’s been gelded in the interim and subsequently switched yards to Hamed Al Jehani who’s stroll rate stands at 3-5 at the time of writing, and while he is equipped with a relatively inexperienced jockey on these shores, Faleh Bughenaim did give an excellent winning ride on Solar Aclaim at 16/1 last season.
The other I’d like to be on is CERULEAN BAY, who has the plum draw in stall one. While I sometimes think that a middle-high draw can suit after a bit of rain at Chester after the first meeting, on this card last season, stall one was responsible for four of the seven winners so he must be taken into consideration from an each way perspective.
The New Bay gelding was 2/2 as a two year old prior to a disappointing effort in the G3 Solario Stakes, but he was gelded soon after and made a solid enough reappearance at Beverley off a mark of 86, prior to being beaten a length at Haydock off top weight.
He was then sent off co favourite for the Silver Bowl Handicap but had little luck in running, and once dropped back to seven furlongs, he notched up a hat trick of handicap victories latterly off a pound higher mark.
He was then sent off the 7/2F in a 78k Leopardstown Handicap and while he was only beaten three lengths, he came back lame from that and was subsequently put away for the season. He shaped in need of the run on reappearance this term and then failed to stay the mile at York under a keen hold, but those should’ve blow away the cobwebs and now he’s 3lbs lower it would be no surprise to see him return to the boil particularly given his form around left handed sharp tracks.
2:23 Haydock – Betfred “The Classic Bookmaker” Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Shagraan 14/1 1pt EW 3 places
The likes of No Half Measures, Seven Questions, Democracy Dilemma and Rage Of Bamby all have something to prove after their below par reappearances, and for all Jasour is entitled to take this on the balance of his earlier 3yo form, I wonder whether this may just be a tee up for Royal Ascot.
One who has less to prove than the others despite an inferior rating is SHAGRAAN, who is bordering on that fine line between a high end sprint handicapper and a Listed/G3 sort, and hopefully he can swing in the favour of the latter.
He was an eye-catcher in the Sky Bet and Symphony Heritage Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting last season in a race where 3yos generally tend to struggle, but those who do fare well tend to go on to bigger and better things such as Live In The Dream, show as 6th in the race in 2022 before going on to win the Nunthorpe.
He then landed a 26k handicap at Haydock when giving 6lbs to American Affair in third, who reversed that form when landing the Portland at Doncaster next time out. The American Affair formline could prove handy this season, as he’s come out and won a pair of handicaps latterly when a place ahead of Shagraan in their nearside group, but American Affair was suited to being taken across to the centre of the track there while Shagraan was unfavourably kept to the nearside in rear before staying on strongly for 4th, again giving weight away to all.
He’s 1-1 over C&D, and with race fitness on side he’s taken to continue his upward trajectory.
3:15 York – William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Jane Temple 10/1 1pt EW 3 places
Scenic, Sueno and Allonsy all reappear against each other here having run at Goodwood last time out with Sueno looking a touch unlucky in the running, and the gap will likely be closer here. Term Of Endearment won the race last season and can improve for her G2 defeat in Meydan, but the unexposed JANE TEMPLE looks overpriced provided she takes to turf at the first time of asking.
The daughter of Siyouni is bred on a Giant’s Causeway cross, which has produced a 6-8 winners to runners ratio according to Racing Post data and she comes here on the back of a very impressive win at Kempton.
While her form is way off these, she could hardly have been any more impressive when bursting clear up the inside rail despite still looking green, with her huge stride length a positive factor here. The two 3/4L third was subsequently beaten the same distance in the Listed Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood which bodes well for Jane Temple here, and all four of her siblings who’ve ran on the grass have won on it.
Connections won this with Precious Ramotswe in 2018 who was coming off the back of a C3 Brighton Handicap, so we shouldn’t be dissuaded by her inexperience/form against these.
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