There’s a mixture of Flat and National Hunt racing on Saturday afternoon, as Newbury provides the action on the level, while the jumping takes place at Market Rasen. Our value tipster Matty Sutcliffe picks out his best bets for the weekend, which are all available at big prices…
Published: 1.47pm, Thursday, 18th July (Prices correct at time of publishing)
2:05 Market Rasen Unibet Moneyback As Cash Races Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135) – Flying Fortune 10/1 1pt WIN
Summer jumping, otherwise know as ‘Peter Bowen season’ is well under way. The Pembrokeshire based yard are always to be feared around this time of year, as if you were to have backed all of their runners in the months of May, June and July, you’d have returned a healthy profit of £175.18 to a £1 stake. That is largely down to their record at Market Rasen, with an all time 21.28% strike rate and a £107.40 profit to a £1 stake.
That profit has continued this month, and FLYING FORTUNE can continue her progressive ways now back in a handicap. The daughter of Soldier Of Fortune was progressive in bumpers last season, finishing seven lengths behind Dysart Enos and five behind Queen’s Gamble in a listed mares’ bumper at the course, before going on to win two herself in good style.
Though she’s winless in five starts over hurdles, she hasn’t shaped without promise having finished second on three occasion including behind the 132 rated Farnoge on ground she wouldn’t have enjoyed. She was only just touched off on handicap debut when perhaps given too much to do in rear on soft ground, but fared much on a quicker surface back in a novice, when second again, splitting rivals rated 11lbs and 6lbs higher than herself, with the winner racking up a four-timer.
Now she drops back in to handicap company off the same mark of 109, this race has likely been on connections’ mind for a while particularly given the strength of her course bumper and she’s bred to revel in these faster conditions with her smart dam a multiple winner on good to firm going.
2:25 Newbury Mettal UK Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) – Ranch Hand 20/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
RANCH HAND hasn’t had much racing in the past three seasons with just three races since finishing a three length fourth in a listed race at York in 2021, so we can only presume there’s been issues. He’s been far from disgraced in those three efforts however, posting an RPR of 100 when finishing a seven length fourth of five in the listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newmarket from a 467 day layoff, before beaten just a length by Rainbow Dreamer off to-weight at Kempton (107 RPR) 55 days later.
He was then off the track for a further 556 days until reappearing in May this year, and although he was beaten seven length and regressed on RPR’s, it was a promising run over an inadequate 1m6f on a quick track and he only weakened late on, finishing a length behind Get Shirty who was only beaten three lengths in the Ascot Stakes last time out.
That effort suggested there’s still potential for him to bounce back into the winner’s enclosure, and is attractively well handicapped off a mark of 97 (94 with Callum Hutchinson’s claim) going back up in trip. His record at this distance reads 111243, and he ran an excellent race over an inadequate 1m4f here behind the likes of Al Aasy, Logician and Thunderous in the 2021 Aston Park Stakes. He has good back form with the likes of Trueshan and Withhold, with the latter winning this contest in 2019, so if the yard have him anywhere near to the form he was capable of showing prior to his first lay off then this former listed/graded level performer is entitled to prove far better than a mark of 97 despite the potential for vulnerability to younger legs.
Summer Plate Handicap Chase Tips 2024: Skelton charge to land four-timer at Market Rasen
It’s the summer National Hunt showpiece at Market Rasen on Saturday afternoon as the hugely competitive Summer Plate Handicap Chase takes place. Our in-house tipster Steve Chambers previews the 2m 5f 89y contest and picks out his best bet for the contest… MOLE COURT (Ben Jones/Ben Pauling) Ben Pauling’s Mole Court racked up a stunning…
Thu 18 Jul 20243:00 Newbury Fidelity Energy Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Twilight Calls 12/1 1pt EW 3 places
I can’t believe it’s taken connections this long to step TWILIGHT CALLS back up in trip to six furlongs, where his record was 52212 prior to being consigned to five furlongs for his subsequent fourteen starts. It’s also unfathomable that last win was a class three handicap in 2022, his highest winning accolade, though all of his ten subsequent starts have come in graded company.
Though his winless streak is mounting up, he’s ran credibly in his three starts this season, beaten 3/4L in the Palace House Stakes, producing his best RPR on seasonal debut suggesting he’s far from a deteriorating force. He was outpaced and given plenty to do in rear having broken slowly at Newmarket, but rattled home late on producing the quickest final two furlongs, more than three seconds quicker than any of the rest, giving weight to all those in front of him including 9lbs to the winner.
It was then a similar story in the King’s Charles III Stakes at Ascot when again breaking slowly and shaping as if they were going far too quick for him, but he travelled well into contention from the rear and only got going a furlong out in a race that generally favoured those on the front end throughout.
Without risking sounding like a beaten drum, he was again slowly away at Sandown in the Coral Charge, detached by a couple of lengths in rear and set an impossible task. Unsurprisingly, he only got racing in the last half furlong once the winners had flown, clocking the quickest final furlong once more.
With Henry Candy finally having a welcome winner last week with a handful of others not beaten all that far, perhaps now will be the time to catch Twilight Calls and this overdue step back up in trip on a flat track will surely aid his cause.
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