Saturday’s racing is headlined by the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. Matty Sutcliffe takes aim at the race with one of his five value selections on the day.
Published: 4.16pm Thursday, 16th May (Odds correct at time of publishing)
1:50 Newbury – Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Cemhaan 16/1 1pt EW 3 Places
CEMHAAN has progressed well with age and posted a career best performance when taking the valuable Roseberry Handicap off top weight at Kempton last month. He’s likely to be overlooked in the market due to high profile connections elsewhere, but if he can translate that performance back to turf then he’s got just as good a chance as any on ratings (2nd top rated). He’s had no problems backing up a victory in the past, and his third in the Copper Horse Handicap Ascot giving weight away to Vauban and subsequent Ebor winner reads well. Failure to settle in the hands of Hollie Doyle meant he had no chance in the Ebor, but he’s an interesting prospect now upped to group company and could be suited by this smaller field should Neil Callan get him prominent from stall eight.
2:25 Newbury – Highclere Castle Gin Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) – Mister Sketch 15/2 1.5pt EW 4 places
The yard form of Eve Johnston Houghton is somewhat of a concern for the chances of MISTER SKETCH, but she’s had plenty of placed horses and a winner has to come soon, hopefully in the form of Territories colt Mister Sketch, who shaped last time out over 7F here that a drop back in distance could suit. James Doyle has a fantastic record in this race, taking three of the last six renewals, four if we count his win on Log Out Island in 2016 (though was disqualified for a banned substance).
Mister Sketch was beaten a neck and 1/2L over C&D last season (latter race worked out well), so we know he takes to the course and the record of horses drawn in stall one in this race in the last ten years reads 2342513232, so historically he should be suited by his draw on the far side to come from off the pace.
2:40 Newmarket – trustatrader.com Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Gorak 8/1 1pt WIN
GORAK was hit hard by the handicapper when excelling himself in Group Three company last season, posting an RPR of 106 despite taking a handicap off a mark of 83 on his previous outing. He was far from disgraced after that G3 4th when midfield in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Ascot, coming home 1st in his group of 6th up the centre. He then ran another good race when beaten four lengths in the Bunbury Cup, before dipping his form in a trio of runs over six furlongs. The handicapper reacted to those efforts, and kindly dropped him a further 2lbs for his three length 4th to Poet Master over C&D on reappearance last month.
Given he posted an RPR of a pound higher than his rating of 97, the handicapper was very lenient indeed to drop him 2lbs to 95, particularly given the race seemed to favour those coming up the middle. The form has worked out well with the second running away with a C2 handicap at Chester, shaping like a well handicapped sort from the outside stall (gone up 4lbs), the third recorded an RPR of 110 when taking a valuable handicap on the all-weather next time out, and the 5th fared well at York on Wednesday after a midfield finish in the Thirsk Hunt Cup.
That was his first attempt on the Rowley Mile and seemingly handled it well, and could be suited by a prominent ride drawn low. His form peaked around this time last year, and if he runs to the level he did when midfield in those Ascot/July Course handicaps then he may be tough to peg back from the front, which has been the case on the Rowley Mile so far this season.
3:00 Newbury – Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo) – Hot Fuss 80/1 (PaddyPower/Betfair) 0.5pt EW 4 places
This doesn’t look a vintage London Gold Cup and I’m willing to take a chance on the rank outside HOT FUSS, who didn’t go unbacked over this trip at Newmarket earlier this month. Better could have been expected, but he ran green and didn’t particularly take to the course. His dam won in a first time hood, and connections have fitted him with cheekpieces here which he looked as if would help last time out. Although by smart sprinter Calyx, he shaped as if he’d improve for a trip last season, exemplified by his 1/2L second to Dallas Star on soft ground at Bath, with that rival coming out and winning the G3 Ballysax on reappearance. His dam was a winner over 1m1 1/2f and has produced two others who improved for a trip (including 3x listed winner over 1m3f-1m4f) so this trip is worth persevering with for now, and given they back him up relatively quickly in this valuable event, they must be pleased with his work.
Tom Dascombe isn’t the most natural source of winners at Newbury but does have a 39% place rate in handicaps here over the last five seasons which bodes well, and the yard have been amongst the winners recently (5/17 horses that have ran this season have won).
3:35 Newbury – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Real World (20/1 generally, 25/1-33/1 available) 0.5pt EW 3 places
REAL WORLD went off the boil last spring after an playing the bridesmaid to Baaeed in this contest and the Queen Anne in 2022, but has gradually worked his way back to form and was only beaten six lengths in the G1 Dubai Turf last time out, posting an RPR of 109, 28lbs higher than he did in 2022 in the Dubai World Cup prior to his Lockinge 2nd.
He requires a bit of faith back on these shores, but if he’s capable of running to a similar level than he did in this race in 2022 then he certainly won’t be far away in the capable hands of Oisin Murphy.
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