Newmarket’s July meeting begins on Thursday, signalling three days of top-class flat racing. Matty Sutcliffe has picked out three best bets worth a value play on day one, including a 16/1 outsider in the juvenile Group 2…
1:50 Newmarket – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) – Nightime Dancer 5/1 2pt WIN
A very moderate looking Bahrain Stakes see’s four of the five runners re-opposing each other having contested the Queen’s Vase last time out. I don’t think the Queen’s Vase was a particularly strong renewal, given Hallelujah U was rated 81 prior to being beaten two lengths so it may pay to chance the sole runner who hadn’t run at Royal Ascot in NIGHTIME DANCER.
The son of Ghaiyyath was always going to be better as a three year old having made his two year old debut in November, staying on well to finish third in a Novice Stakes that’s subsequently thrown up the Jersey winner Noble Champion and the King Edward V Handicap winner Merchant.
Nightime Dancer made a winning 3yo debut when staying on dourly at Southwell to win a shade cosily, and he as far from disgraced when third in the Lingfield Derby Trial behind two Coolmore types, with the winner previously finishing four lengths behind Delacroix in the Ballysax, and two lengths behind Lambourn there.
He then contested the Derby, and I thought he ran a remarkable race to finish eighth considering he was rank last throughout. His stride cadence of 2.16sps suggested Epsom didn’t suit, and given his average stride lengths was the third highest in the contest would also suggest this more galloping track at Newmarket will suit better. He clocked the third fastest finishing speed percentage despite posted wide out on the track, so his overall performance can easily be upgraded.
He was a length behind Green Storm who showed up well in the G2 King Edward VIII Stakes, and he was only a length behind Tornado Alert who was subsequently second in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes, with both of those races looking stronger than the Queen’s Vase.
Nightime Dancer shapes as if this extra furlong will suit to a tee, and should he have improved for the experience of the Derby then I’d fancy him to win this a shade cosily.
2:25 Newmarket – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) – Zavateri 16/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
Again, this doesn’t look a vintage renewal of this Group 2 for all the Woodcote winner Maximized had his form franked by the second landing Windsor Castle. That isn’t to say it can’t prove one though, as Coventry second Do Or Do Not was first home on his side behind the impressive Gstaad and Brussels posted a higher RPR than stablemate Henri Matisse did last season when winning a Curragh Maiden.
The one who brings just as much potential as any however is ZAVATERI, who won with any amount in hand on debut at Salisbury. The form has yet to work out, but visually the way he cut through the field on the bridle and picked up under hands and heels despite greenness in the final furlong was just as impressive as anything we’ve seen in here.
The yard had Billboard Star finishing second to Whistlejacket in this contest last season who went on to hit the frame three times in G2/Listed company, so they’ve likely saved one of their best types for this contest and he’s worth a chance providing he can back up that promising debut.
3:00 Newmarket – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Andesite 25/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
The half brother to 2022 Queen Mary and 2023 Temple Stakes winner Dramatised has yet to hit the heights as his connections’ sibling, despite making a winning debut at York last May. He was a six-length seventh in a strong renewal of the Gimcrack which has thrown up French Derby winner Camille Pissarro (a length ahead off ANDESITE), which was his last two-year-old start.
He was unfancied in the market on 3yo debut in April in a Chelmsford conditions stakes, though fared little chance having pulled too hard in rear. There was some promise to take out of that race however, and there was certainly promise shown in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury when a six-length eighth.
He weakened having raced up with the strong pace set by Righthere Rightnow, but the form is working out well given the ninth was just touched off a mark of 92 in handicaps next time out, he was only a short head behind the subsequent Jersey winner Noble Champion who’s now rated 114, the fifth was subsequently beaten a short head in listed company next time out, the third was beaten a length in the Commonwealth Cup and the winner landed the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes next time out.
Evidently, he was in some strong company there and now dropping into a handicap after a gelding operation, a chance is taken he can’t fulfil that initial potential for a yard that won this with a future group performer in 2022.
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