Day two of Newmarket’s July meeting heralds the opening Group 1 of the week with the Falmouth Stakes for fillies and mares. Among his value punts for Friday, Matty Sutcliffe has picked out an each-way play in the Falmouth, along with three other best bets.
1:50 Newmarket – bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Marhaba Ghaiyyath 7/1 1pt WIN
The Johnstons have won this contest five times since 2015 and with the yard hitting strong form last month, it may pay to follow MARHABA GHAIYYATH who can improve once more going back up in trip.
Like most Ghaiyyaths, he was a late bloomer as a two year having made his debut in a Wolverhampton Maiden last November, staying on strongly from rear to be beaten half a length by the favourite (gave 2lbs), who was previously four lengths behind subsequent German Derby second Convergent on debut.
He confirmed that initial promise under a prominent ride second time up at Lingfield, pulling eleven lengths clear with the second who’s franked that form twice since. It was a mere penalty kick at Wolverhampton next time out when 1/7F when always in command from a two time subsequent winner (pulled eight lengths clear of the third), and his Musselburgh defeat can easily be excused having encountered difficulties at the start, failing to get into position early.
The step up to 1m2f at Chester brought out further improvement when beaten a head by the favourite giving him 5lbs, who had the run of the race up the rail and won next time out, now rated 10lbs higher. Marhaba Ghaiyyath’s effort there can be upgraded given he swing five wide into the turn, and he confirmed that promise when landing a 0-90 at Redcar a shade cosily from some battle hardened older types.
A 5lbs rise doesn’t look insurmountable, and this hardy colt will be suited by this galloping, undulating track back against his own age company, with James Doyle a strong jockey booking.
2:25 Newmarket – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By bet365) (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo) – Argentine Tango 13/2 1pt WIN
Venetian Sun will prove all the rage here and the way she’s been talked up by Karl Burke would suggest she’s unbeatable, but it remains to be seen how strong the Albany form will work out and the value may lie with ARGENTINE TANGO, who was a length and a half away (same distance she won the Albany) from her at Carlisle despite giving 6lbs and racing wide throughout, so she has to be considered now back off level weights which in theory, should see her a lot shorter in the market here.
While Easterby’s filly is much more exposed than this field, she’s improved on RPR’s with every run this season with form figures of 21211 and only ever seems to do enough, with her largest winning margin half a length (neck and head the others).
As well as the weight swing, she also has vital course experience over Venetian Sun when winning what looked a competitive enough Listed contest over C&D last month, staying on well over her first try at the distance. She clocked the largest stride length there and got the trip very well, displaying a game attitude in the process.
Like Venetian Sun, I wouldn’t suggest she’s reach her limitations yet and the rematch between the pair can be a lot closer than the market suggests, with the large majority of the circumstances favouring Argentine Tango.
3:00 Newmarket – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Story Horse 6/1 1.5pt EW 4 places
I wouldn’t normally go each way on one at these odds, but with form figures of 52182312, STORY HORSE looks a rock solid bet given the form he’s achieved this season.
He was a slightly backward type at the early part of his career and had often raced awkwardly throughout his races, but the innate ability has always been there and his neck second to Pappano at Southwell last September when unfavourably pitched in midfield backs that up, given that one franked it by placing in Listed company next time out.
Two efforts over 2m2f suggested he was a non-stayer, but he returned this term back over 1m6f with a length third to the progressive Caballo De Mar, giving him 3lbs who’s now rated 20lbs higher. Story Horse was then a winner for the column on the Rowley Mile when gamely making all to fend off the consistent Blindedbythelights, finishing ahead of two of these with the eighth franking the form at Royal Ascot.
He then backed that up to produce a career best effort when beaten a neck at Goodwood by French Master, who franked that form healthy next time out when cosily landing the Copper Horse Stakes at Royal Ascot now rated 12lbs higher (Caballo De Mar in second). There won’t be much between him and Dancing In Paris on that evidence, though the latter finishing second in the Northumberland Plate means he has 2lbs to reverse that short head defeat.
Story Horse might’ve gone a touch too early there having found himself in front, and the draw in 13 isn’t all that ideal, but if he can break well and Saffie Osborne judges the fractions right from the front (doesn’t need to lead) then it could take a tough one to pass him up the straight.
3:35 Newmarket – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Elwateen 14/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Saeed Bin Suroor noted that the plan was to get a ‘confidence booster’ in a Group 3 or Group 2 into ELWATEEN after her Oaks disappointment, so the fact they send her straight into this Group 1 contest instead should be noted, particularly given it looks to be a moderate enough renewal.
The daughter of Dubawi made a promising debut success at Kempton last August when a 4/6F, picking up strongly to win going away from a two time subsequent winner. She was relatively unfancied at 22/1 when making her seasonal debut in the 1000 Guineas, consisting of multiple fillies who were at Group One level as two year olds, and she fared exceptionally well to be beaten two lengths by the unbeaten Desert Flower, who subsequently finished third in the Oaks. She fared second best to that one of those who raced prominently with the second and third coming from off the pace, suggesting it was a fair effort from the unexposed filly.
Her Oaks seventh on soft ground can be written off, as she didn’t appear to handle the track nor the ground, so the drop back to a strongly run mile on a firmer surface can paint her in a better light.
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