The Sunday series on the flat features racing at Newmarket on Sunday. Our value man Matty Sutcliffe has his eye trained throughout the card, with six selections for your bets to end the weekend.
Published: 4.16pm Thursday, 16th May (Odds correct at time of publishing)
4:15 Newmarket – Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-95) – Hope You Can Run 1pt WIN 8/1 generally (Bigger available)
There’s potentially seven runners in here who prefer to be held up off the pace, and that could allow HOPE YOU CAN RUN an easy time of things out in front. The son of Lope De Vega was unfancied when weakening out of things in a class two here at the start of the month, but the drop in class and going back up in trip may help.
He hasn’t found his form yet in two runs this season, but it took him a while to come to hand last year so it may be that he needs a couple runs to find peak fitness, and we often see it with these Johnston horses that they can suddenly find form. He’s potentially well handicapped on several bits of form from last season once putting it all together, and the booking of William Buick bodes well given his excellent record on the Rowley Mile (25% SR in course handicaps the last five seasons, £21.99+).
4:45 Newmarket – Sky Bet Match5 Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-95) – Baryshnikov 9/1 1pt EW 3 places
BARYSHNIKOV has form figures of 66444332222221111 in fields of eight or less runners, narrowed down to 21222421 in class three handicaps over 1m2f, so rates a solid each way proposition with conditions to suit. He wasn’t disgraced at Chester earlier this month when faring little chance held up from stall eleven with the first three home coming from 3,4,1 and always prominent. That race may have come too soon given he was a winner only a week prior at Redcar off a 3lbs lower mark, lowering the colours of the odds on favourite.
Buick is booked for only his tenth ride for the yard (no wins but three places) who have seen four of their runners hit the frame in course handicaps here in the last five season from just nine runners. The market is largely taken up by the unexposed Mahboob, but on a line through Lakota Brave, Baryshnikov wouldn’t have all that much to find with the favourite and placed off higher marks last season (91/90/89) so though a winner off 83 on penultimate start, can still fare well off a mark of 86.
5:15 Newmarket – Sky Bet Build A Bet Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-80) – Flying Secret 15/2 generally 0.5pt WIN + Powerdress 0.5pt 18/1 WIN
From the family of Mogul and Japan, FLYING SECRET is bred to be smart and has often shaped like it throughout his career. He was frustrating to follow as a 2yo/3yo, but finally came good last season when looking a much more matured model of a horse. That win came after an eye-catching effort on the all-weather in April, and he returned this season with a tenderly handled fourth at Southwell last month, running right up to his mark of 76 but has kindly been dropped 2lbs.
He’s 3lbs higher than his winning turf reappearance last year but he pulled seven length clear with the runner up that day, and won off a 5lbs higher mark next time out beating Popmaster, who took a C3 at Ascot next time out and finished the season with a listed win at Newbury and a second off 106 in the Howden Handicap. If Flying Secret is able to replicate that form, then he’s unlikely to be far away.
The other I can’t leave is POWERDRESS, who if returning to anywhere near the form she’s previously shown, would beat these by a furlong. She won over five furlongs here in 2022 beating a subsequent listed neck runner up, with the third going on next time out and the fourth peaking at a mark of 92 last season.
She was then beaten a length and a half by Majestic Pride over C&D who’s subsequently rated 106 after being beaten a length twice in listed company and a length in a G2 at Meydan in January. The second (Holguin) is now rated 109 after his efforts in G2 company and the fourth is rated 112 having finished second in the 2000 Guineas next time out.
Powerdress evidently went off the boil in three subsequent runs, but I’m willing to chance that a change of scenery may spark life back into her and given connections paid £30,000 for her in August, they’ll want to start getting some of that back.
6:15 Newmarket – Sky Bet Request A Bet Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-95) – Prince Of Pillo 6/1 generally (bigger available) 1pt WIN
PRINCE OF PILLO paid the price for an excellent two year old season which culminated in a third in the Cornwallis Stakes over C&D. He began last year on a mark of 104, struggling in listed company and an Royal Ascot Handicap off top-weight. The initial suspicion was that he hadn’t trained on, and while he likely excelled himself as a two year old, he’s now 18lbs lower than last years reappearance and showed last time out that the fire still burns. He wasn’t given an awfully hard time under Oisin Orr in a race dominated by the front running Tees Spirit. However, take that winner out, then the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th all came up the nearside so given he was drawn on the far-side, we can possibly upgrade that effort.
He will have come on for the run there and is more favourably drawn towards the stand-side rail this time around. Fahey took this with a four year old in 2017 and if bouncing back to form, Prince Of Pillo is seriously well handicapped to go in.
6:45 Newmarket – Sky Bet Acca Freeze Fillies’ Handicap (A Jockey Club Grassroots Mile Distance Series Qualifier) (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-75) – Adelabella 22/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Mukhadram filly ADELABELLA made her debut in February as a four year old, and connections have possibly been smart in hiding her ability by running her against three years olds in maidens, thus giving away at least a stone each time. On the last of those maidens, she was three lengths behind Reyaadah Star giving away 18lbs, who’s now rated 72 after a seven lengths win last time out so on that bit of form alone, Adelabella could be well in off 59 once connections pull the trigger. Not only that but she was beaten three lengths on handicap debut off 62, finishing a length behind on now rated 9lbs higher having won twice on turf since, and the six length seventh that day has also gone up ten pounds having won twice since.
Adelabella made her turf debut last time out and Aidan Keeley did everything he possibly could to get her into trouble without being deemed a non-trier. She broke well but was quickly reined back in rear, travelling well throughout and being held on to for an age. The gap appeared for a while before Keeley decided to go through it, but once she did she picked up well under hands and heels under a certainly eye-catching ride. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride for the first time who has an 18% SR for the yard all time and I’d imagine she’ll rate at least a stone higher than a mark of 59 at some point this season.
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