Big-field handicaps lend themselves to some long-shot fancies, and Matty Sutcliffe has exactly that in the Cesarewitch on Saturday. Here are his best value punts for Saturday at Newmarket and York.
Published: 2.40pm, Tuesday, October 8th (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:15 Newmarket – Space Blues Darley Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Skellet 16/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Fillies have won three of the last eight renewals of the Darley Stakes, with Ralph Beckett responsible for one of those with Feliciana De Vega in 2019. That was Beckett’s sole runner with a filly in this contest (going back from 2013), and he takes his chance again with SKELLET.
The daughter of Kingman posted a career best effort when comfortably taking a listed race at Sandown last month, travelling strongly in behind leaders before angling out wide for a run, then coming home strongly to beat the consistent Checkandchallenge. That race has been won by the likes of Chindit, Bayside Boy and Mostahdaf in recent seasons, with the latter going on to win this race next time out.
Skellet was beaten a head by a progressive filly in this grade over the trip at Chantilly on her penultimate start, which came after two fair efforts in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas and G1 Coronation Stakes, and she’s unlikely to face a similar of calibre of opposition on Saturday. She’s a progressive sort hailing from a smart family, being a half sister to the 2018 Moyglare winner, and she brings crucial course form having been beaten a neck in the G3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at this meeting last season.
She’ll have to improve beyond a rating of 105 to take this, but she’s not far off on adjusted weights receiving 5lbs from most and with any natural improvement she’s entitled to run a strong race against some largely exposed sorts.
2:40 York – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Strike Red 10/1 1pt WIN
Five of the last six winners of this competitive sprint previously raced in the Ayr Gold Cup, and this years’ renewal was notably dominated by middle to high draws who raced near-side/middle early on, with the first nine home all drawn between 12-23. While the main body finished their race up the far-side, Lethal Levi (1st) and Silky Wilkie (2nd) both seemed to be favoured by their nearside pitch, with the winner pulling three lengths clear.
STRIKE RED fared best of the single figure draws there, and his four length defeat can be upgraded despite the eventual finishing position. He finished two lengths clear of the next single figure draw, with the others finishing 16th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th. Strike Red travelled strongly to the fore in his far side group and was leading the field in the last half furlong, though overhauled late on to finish only a 1L 3/4L behind the eventual second.
He posted a career best RPR when winning this contest off a pound higher mark in 2022, and was only beaten 3/4L over C&D off this mark in August by the progressive three year old Elmonjed, posting his best RPR since taking a 53K handicap at the Curragh last season. He wasn’t disgraced when a 7/1 JF for that race on his penultimate start, faring well from an unfavourable low draw/track position in rear.
He’s shaped well elsewhere this season and is evidently coming back to the boil, with this race surely to have been in mind by Richard Fahey for some time. Should he repeat any of his last three efforts, then he can shape well and I’d imagine he’ll go off a touch shorter should be given a favourable low draw.
3:40 Newmarket – Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Anna Bunina 50/1 Coral/Ladbrokes 0.5pt EW 4 places (Extra places will be available on the day, anything over 25/1 is fair).
National Hunt trainers have farmed this contest in recent seasons, and with Willie/Emmett Mullins, Elliott, Cromwell, Morrison, Byrnes all holding a plethora of strong chances, on the balance on probability, the winner will likely hail from a jumps-based yard.
John McConnell’s sole representative is some way down in the market, but admirable mare ANNA BUNINA is an intriguing runner for the Irish trainer. McConnell is no stranger to success on the flat, notably landing the G3 Anglesey Stakes with A Case Of You before he went to Adrian McGuinness, and this eight year old daughter of Poet’s Voice has a similar profile to many jumps-based Cesarewitch winners down the years.
Her record in handicaps on the flat read 6122112118, though we haven’t seen her in this sphere since finishing a six-length eighth at Chester in 2022 when unsuited by her wide draw on a sharp track. Since then, she’s placed in the G3 Quevega Mares Hurdle, the G2 Scottish Champion Hurdle, The G1 Punchestown Champion Mares Hurdle, and fared well in multiple big handicaps such as the County Hurdle and the Pertemps Network at the Cheltenham Festival. Her official hurdles rating of 128 suggests a flat rating of 85 is more than workable, and if McConnell has her primed for this.
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