It’s Super Saturday this weekend, with 12 races being broadcast live on ITV Racing across a variety of tracks across the UK. Matty Sutcliffe has picked value bets out in five of those contests, including an 80/1 shot in the July Cup…
2:35 York – John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Star Of Mehmas 6/1 1pt WIN
Fillies have won four of the last nine renewals of this contest with three-year-olds responsible for three of them, and the sole qualifier in here is STAR OF MEHMAS whose weight of just 8-5 could see her tough to beat.
The daughter of Mehmas has form figures of 11123 over five furlongs including a C&D second in the Westow Stakes, won by Winter Power en-route to her success in this contest in 2021. Star Of Mehmas might’ve been left in front early enough there with Aesterius, and I’d like to see her ridden a touch more conservatively this time around, challenging late on as she doesn’t do an awful lot in front.
2:50 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Run Boy Run 11/1 1pt EW 4 places
Two of the last five winners of this contest had previously raced in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, including the penultimate winner Biggles who was first on his far-side group of five. RUN BOY RUN was beaten seven lengths into ninth in the Buckingham Palace, but was unsuited by his pitch on the far-side having finished first in his group of three when drawn in stall two, with the eight ahead of him drawn between stalls 18-31.
The winner was seriously impressive and has a strong chance in the G2 Summer Mile Stakes, so take him out then Run Boy Run was only five lengths behind the second who re-opposes here. He’s held his form well this season over six furlongs, finishing a neck second to Marshman at Newcastle before being beaten a head there next time out reversing the form, and his 3/4L fourth to More Thunder also reads strongly with that one now rated 9lbs higher.
His length second to the progressive Aramram in a Newbury 0-105 is also strong form, and given his form over C&D reads 2211 then the return to these conditions can see him show up strongly if backing up that effort last time out.
3:10 York – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo+)] – Fox Legacy 10/1 1pt EW 5 places
Andrew Balding and King Power have won this twice since 2019 with Pivoine and Johnny Drama, which immediately draws the eye to the poignantly named FOX LEGACY.
Like most of the consortium to come out for Freemason Lodge this season, Fox Legacy improved for the stable switch to Kingsclere to post a career best effort at Newmarket in the Suffolk Stakes Handicap, travelling strongly toward the head of affairs before picking up smartly to win going away from Bopedro, who franked that form when a length third in the Royal Hunt Cup last time out.
Fox Legacy wasn’t disgraced in the Royal Hunt Cup when first home in his group of five up the centre, shaping as if unsuited by the drop back in trip to a mile. He’s 1-1 over this trip and ground which came in a twelve length romp at Salisbury last season, and if overcoming stall nineteen then he’s taken to go close for connections who know what it takes to win this.
3:25 Newmarket – bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100) – Secret Theory 17/2 1pt WIN
Bedouin Prince looks the obvious candidate given Buick and Appleby have teamed up to land three of the last four renewals, but a mark of 100 doesn’t look an obvious gift and it may pay to chance the outsider of the Godolphin trio for James Doyle, who won this on First Contact in 2018.
Three of the Godolphin quarter to have won this race were all geldings, and SECRET THEORY can improve once more now having had the cruellest cut of them all. The Dubawi gelding landed a Maiden on the Rowley Mile on his sole two year old start, making smart headway from midfield having initially started slowly, winning in the manner of a smart one. The second has franked the form now rated 90, as has the sixth who’s won twice since now rated 98.
He doubled his tally on three year old debut this term beating Archivist a length a shade cosily, giving that one 7lbs who’s franked it with two subsequent wins now rated 97. Little went right at Goodwood in a competitive Conditions Stakes having broke slowly away in rear and always on the back-foot and never really getting into a rhythm around the tight track.
The form has worked out nicely however in spite of not showing his true running, finishing a length behind the subsequent Jersey winner Noble Champion, now rated 114, and the winner landed the King Edward VII Stakes now rated 112.
A mark of 97 looks more than workable on all known form, and if the gelding operation has improved him then he’s bound to be bang there.
4:35 Newmarket – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Run To Freedom 80/1 1pt EW 4 places
In a sprint division that largely lacks a star, anything could pop up at a price here if putting their best foot forward on the day and that includes the 2023 second RUN TO FREEDOM, who bumped into a peak Shaquille giving him 6lbs, finishing a short head in front of a peak Kinross who franked the form healthily that year.
Run To Freedom hasn’t been right since then, and picked up a knock in the 2023 Abernant which saw him spend 363 days off the track. He returned in peak form this year however, posting his highest RPR on a seasonal debut when beaten a length in the Abernant, and he wasn’t entirely disgraced in the QEII when midfield beaten six lengths, finishing a neck behind Inisherin.
His record first time up after a break reads 02440048 which suggests we can draw a line through any run fresh, but he posted a 4lbs higher RPR this time when ninth in the race en-route to his July Cup second so there’s reason to believe he can better the effort once more, with his record second time up after a break reading a more respectable 26115.
The omission of cheek-pieces is a notable angle, as is the fact his record here reads 12. The market looks to have completely underestimate this gelding who is classy on his day, and is a fairly confident selection at the prices.
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