This weekend’s racing focuses on Newbury and Ripon, with Matty Sutcliffe picking out three of his traditional value punts, all at double-figure prices, across the cards.
2:45 Ripon – William Hill Supporting MND Silver Cup Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80) – Airman 25/1 1pt EW 5 places
Dandy Man gelding AIRMAN has gone off the boil since his first two career starts when winning a Beverley maiden as a 2yo and a Hamilton Novice as a 3yo 286 days apart.
His form later last season subsequently read 706, and he was gelding a week after his 6th at Thirsk before given another break. 160 days later he posted his best effort since his last success when a length third to Equilateral in a 0-105 handicap at Southwell in December, staying on well from rear and pulling a length clear from the fourth with the third, Kylian, subsequently landing a pair of handicaps before winning in listed company in Germany in June.
Admittedly, he hasn’t quite built on that in five runs since, but he’s scarcely been put into any of his races. He was equipped with a first time hood at Wolverhampton in February and was huge eye-catcher, swinging incredibly wide in rear on the turn to not even be in the picture a furlong out, before flying late under hands and heels to be beaten two lengths, the only only to clock a sub 12-second final furlong.
He was then off the track for 153 days prior to racing York twice within two weeks and failed to get competitive at all from rear, but I often think that it’s the perfect way to hide in plain sight with regards to dropping ones mark as very few do get into the contests in rear, and he’s since been dropped 6lbs to a mark of 75. He’s 13lbs lower than what he was rated this time last year and if he’s able to reproduce his form from the all-weather earlier on in the season, then now may be the time to catch him.
His ability to handle to undulations of Hamilton further bode well for his first try at Ripon, as does the fact that Fahey appears to finally be hitting some form.
3:00 Newbury – TPT Fire Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100) – Documenting 25/1 1pt EW 3 places
He may be long in the tooth now as a 12yo, but DOCUMENTING has equalled or run to an RPR above his official rating in each of his four starts this season proving the fire still very much burns.
He stayed on strongly from rear at Thirsk on seasonal debut giving weight away to the three in front, he was then beaten three lengths at Chelmsford in a valuable 26k 0-88 off top-weight and he he posted his best effort yet when beaten 3/4L at Doncaster, with the third subsequently landing a competitive race at York. Documenting ran a blinder himself at York last time out to be beaten two lengths into fifth, finishing half a length behind Dubai Treasure who took a fillies handicap at the Goodwood festival next time out.
He’s been running in the manner of one with a certain target ahead, and given he won this race off 14lbs higher in 2022 and was beaten 3/4L in it last season off 9lbs higher by Lethal Levi, now has to be the time to catch him in what may prove to be his swansong.
3:20 Ripon – William Hill/MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) – Abduction 14/1 1pt EW 5 places
Jim Goldie has his string in fine fettle of late and ABDUCTION comes here on the back of a success in a 10k claiming contest at Chester. Despite travelling wide throughout from the widest stall, he won the race a shade cosily after swooping around the field on the home turn with ease, before being nudged out for a comfortable neck success under Shay Farmer.
The form of that race has already worked out with the second going in five days later now 4lbs higher, and the 5/2F in third went in six days later now rated 3lbs higher. He’s remained in competitive form for the most part this season having won a 15k class 4 handicap at Hamilton in June which was also franked by the 2nd and 3rd winning next time out with the 4th finishing 3rd last time out in a valuable York handicap behind Elmonjed from 2lbs out of the weights.
Notably, he escapes a penalty for last time out and he effectively runs off a mark of 73 here with Shay Farmer’s valuable 7lbs claim. Backing all of Shay Farmer’s mounts on horses aged four or higher on turf would return a profit of £98.78 to a £1 stake, and while this is Abduction’s first visit to Ripon, his proven ability to handle both sharp and undulating courses such as Chester, Hamilton, Catterick and Lingfield bode very well and he’s still very well handicapped on older form, given he began last season on a mark of 89.
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