The final weekend before Royal Ascot is a great chance to find some value selections. Matty Sutcliffe is on hand to point you towards four of those on the day, with his best value punts.
Published: 2.40pm (Prices correct at time of publishing)
1:30 Sandown – Download The BetMGM App Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-90) – Mr Monaco 1pt WIN SP
MR MONACO was a pointer for the column when finishing 6th in the valuable EBF Final at York last Autumn, where I noted he “never travelled a any form of fluency on the soft ground…However, he worked his way well into the race on the wrong side of the track in the finish…Ralph Beckett has had several of his 3yos improve for a gelding operation and a trip this season, and I’d be sure Mr Monaco will be another for next season too. Progeny of Territories with Galileo’s influence down the damside tend to provide horses who improve for further, and he’s one to add into the tracker for next year.”
Now gelded and up in trip, I’d expect a much improved model this season. Mr Monaco was unsuited by how the race pan out at Goodwood on seasonal debut, having to be dropped right in rear from a wide stall in a race which favoured those to the fore. He was hampered when making a challenge two furlongs out, but came home strongly, giving the impression that not only will this extra furlong on a stiffer track suit, but shaping as if he’ll come on for that run.
Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike rate in Sandown handicaps in the last five season including a win in this race two seasons ago, and I’d be confident that Mr Monaco can defy his mark of 83 in here. With some other progressive and in form types in here, I’d imagine he’ll go off around the 6/1 mark, though I’d be a tad concerned if the forecast rain comes in abundance.
2:25 York – Sky Bet Proud To Support Macmillan Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95) – Carnival Zain 25/1 1pt EW 5 places
CARNIVAL ZAIN shaped as if needing the run over C&D last month, but arguably outrun his odds of 28/1 given the circumstances. He travelled strongly throughout the race on toward the fore and was hampered when beginning to pick up well, briefly losing his position before keeping on strongly. The race favoured those in rear/midfield throughout who we’re able to angle out for a run, with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th all suited in that respect. The only other prominent runner to finish in front of Carnival Zain was Billyb, who since fairly bolted up at Beverley last weekend when very well backed.
Carnival Zain was dropped a pound for that effort last time out now on a mark of 79, a pound above when bolting up in this grade at Ascot in 2022, 7lbs below his last winning mark, 12lbs below his mark when racing second time up last season and perhaps more importantly, 9lbs below his four lengths 8th in this race last season. Evidently, he’s a very well handicapped sort and it’s only a matter of time before he’s back among the winners.
3:00 York – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Divine Jewel 10/1 (generally) 1pt EW (12/1 3 places Skybet)
DIVINE JEWEL was rated 5lbs higher when 3rd in this race last season suggesting she’s regressed since, but she’s been second in three of her six subsequent efforts beaten a head twice, two of her other efforts came over an unsuitable 1m4f over in France, and the other came when evidently not giving her running at Doncaster last September.
The drop in ratings shouldn’t warn punters off, and if she replicates her third in this contest last season then she has a big chance. She was five lengths behind the front two, but that pair were rated 111 and 112, with the second (israr) taking the G2 Prince Of Wales next time out and the winner (Quickthorn) took the G1 Goodwood Cup next time out.
With respect to the other five contenders, none of them can be put in the same category of an Israr of a Quickthorn, and all have questions marks surrounding them that suggests Divine Jewel is slightly overlooked as the outsider of the field and is worth an each way play given she’s yet to be out of the placings when returning fresh.
3:35 York – Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Garfield Shadow 14/1 (generally) 1pt EW 5 places
Seven of the last ten winners of this competitive event had previously raced at Newmarket last time out, with the majority of those having contested the event in which Woodhay Wonder gamely won last time out. While she must be considered, she’s proven a liking to Newmarket, and I’m confident that GARFIELD SHADOW can reverse that five length defeat with a 5lbs swing in the weights and back on a more conventional track.
The son of James Garfield looked uncomfortable in the finish on the undulating Rowley course, but was travelling best of all prior and stuck to his task well. Prior to that, he belied his opening mark of 85 when relatively un-fancied (20/1) on handicap debut at Chester, defying a wide draw in stall thirteen. The form is open to question, but he beat the well backed favourite into second who backed the effort up with a second (threw his chance away hanging under pressure) in a 52K race at Goodwood next time out, and the return to a bigger field scenario should aid his cause.
It’s no secret that Richard Fahey is in sensational form this month, but he’s yet to win a handicap at York this season however he took this race with Mr Lupton in 2016 who was coming off the back of a good showing at Newmarket, and the prospect of rain over the next couple of days should suit on pedigree as both his sire and dam-sire were proven in softer going.
Added: 11.30am (Prices correct at time of publishing)
4:45 York – Ice Co Supporting Macmillan Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85) – Theme Park 7/1 NAP 1.5pt EW 5 places
I put THEME PARK up as a NAP at a bigger price last month here and he just about grabbed 5th for some each way money, and I initially told myself that’ll be the end of the rollercoaster of a journey regarding following him off a cliff, but if he can’t win in these conditions today then I don’t think he’ll ever return to the winners enclosure.
Despite dropping a pound for that run, he still posted an RPR 3lbs higher than his mark suggesting he retains ability and somewhat defied an almighty late drift in the market. He sweated up prior to the race but traveled strongly in the contest in midfield and though beaten five lengths, the winner was well backed and looked the proverbial group horse in a handicap, pulling three lengths clear of the second King’s Code, who’d previously acquitted himself well in class two handicaps. The third, Reach, backed up the effort when third in a big handicap here yesterday, faring well having been caught in a pocket too long and the 4th was only beaten four length into 5th in that same contest.
Theme Park drops two classes here to class four company as well a dropping a furlong and a half in distance, and the calibre of horses is significantly weaker than what he faced last month. He was only beaten a length over a mile here last May off a 3lbs higher mark and a neck over the same distance here in September off a pound higher mark, running to an RPR of 91 both times with the 3rd from the latter race now rated 101 having bolted up at Newmarket next time out, so he’s well handicapped on those bits of course form and given he posted an RPR of 90 when beaten two lengths off top weight at Chester good to soft going (winner rated 18lbs higher now), the ease in conditions may help him particularly with extra stamina reserves.
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