Matty Sutcliffe is back to preview the weekend’s action ahead. With Newbury and Warwick headlining the cards, he has four selections for you to follow.
Published: 12:30pm, Thursday, 6th February (Odds correct at time of publication)
1:30 Newbury – Betfair Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-140) – Kyntara – 10/1 1pt EW (4 places Paddy Power)
The winners of this contest in 2018, 2017 and 2014 were all coming off the back of an effort in a Pertemps Qualifier last time out (18/17 both from Warwick) and KYNTARA can improve again from his second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick last time out. The selection made most of the running there and was travelling ominously well under Charlie Deutsch before getting the last hurdle all wrong, forfeiting valuable momentum to the winner with the finishing line coming up quick from the last hurdle. The winner was on a similar upward curve having become well-handicapped (previously rated 147, started this season off 120) so Kyntara lost little in defeat, and can take a 4lb subsequent rise in his stride.
Though the selection was in danger of becoming bitterly disappointing for Kim Bailey having been a beaten favourite four times, the change of scenery to Mel Rowley has clearly brought out plenty of improvement and his form has substance to it. He bolted up on yard debut by fourteen lengths with the second (who raced off the same weight) having won and finished second since (now 7lbs higher), then he posted his best effort in terms of RPR’s at Aintree winning by seven lengths on heavy ground carrying 12st, giving 10lb to the second, who is now 9lb higher after a second up in Class 2 company before a game win at Newbury last time out.
If we’re going off the presumption we’ll have soft ground this Saturday, I’ve got the majority of these wanting better ground, including the Dan Skelton-trained favourite, who won his point on good ground and has been kept to that surface under rules. Similarly, Harry Derham’s Young Butler has taken two good ground hurdles and was pulled up when last seen on the going (progeny of Yeats tend to prefer a better surface), so with his mark fine and conditions to suit more than more, Kyntara looks overpriced here and can go close with Charlie Deutsch retained.
2:20 Newbury – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Amarillo Sky – 12/1 0.5pt EW (2 places)
AMARILLO SKY featured in last week’s Cheltenham Ante-Post column as a potential Champion Chase contender so I’m expecting a solid run from here in order to back up those credentials.
All six entries have been declared including the winner of the last two renewals in Funambule Sivola, who will have to drastically improve on what he’s achieved this season given he’s been beaten 20 lengths, 15 lengths, 14 lengths and 11 lengths in his four handicaps this term. I imagine he’ll be down the field once more with a sighter toward the Grand Annual. Boothill has the beating of Venetia Williams’ charge on those pieces of Ascot form and has to be feared toward the top of the market, but is yet to post an RPR higher than 145 on a left-handed track with his best efforts coming at Ascot, Kempton and Sandown, and will have to prove his welfare after taking a sore looking tumble in the Desert Orchid last time out.
Edwardstone is the other topping the market but taking the 7/4 about one beaten 25 lengths in this Grade last time out is risky enough. For all he is a classy animal, he’s been disappointing this season and has shaped like that intermediate trip should’ve suited, so it does feel like last chance saloon for him and I’m happy enough to pass him by. Editeur Du Gite was well-placed by Gary Moore to win back-to-back renewals of the aforementioned Desert Orchid given it was introduced as a limited handicap this season, but that effort was sandwiched in between a 43-length defeat and a 48-length defeat, and he’s another who is tricky to weigh up. Calico stands no chance and will likely be using this as a sighter for a handicap, so it only makes sense to chance Amarillo Sky who has been given plenty of time to recover from a small injury he picked up in the Clarence House last season.
Given he finished lame on his right fore, it was an impressive effort in his first start in open Grade 1 company to be beaten nine lengths, still finishing ten lengths ahead of Funambule Sivola, two behind Energumene and nine behind Edwardstone/Editeur Du Gite. Prior to that he was devastating in two handicaps, including the Jim Joel Memorial over course and distance, posting the highest winning RPR in that contest in the last ten years. He beat Fugitif, giving 9lb away on seasonal debut last term, and that rival is now rated 26lbs higher. If returning back to that upward curve then he can outrun his odds here. He’s 2/3 over course and distance (fences) and would’ve made that 3/3 without falling in January 2022. This will likely have been the plan for some while and the forecast soft ground shouldn’t be much of a hindrance.
2:25 Warwick – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (10yo+ 0-150) – Champagne Mystery – 12/1 1.5pt WIN (14s 355, 16/1 Skybet)
The Betfair Hurdle is somewhat dominated by how ‘well in’ Willie’s French horse is, and I think we’ve a similar situation here which has gone well under the radar in CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY. Previously rated 144 with Nicky Henderson finishing behind the likes of Greaneteen, he lost his way slightly and joined forces with Tom George before going on to Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm, who improved him to place in multiple black type contests, and he was a three-length fourth in a 93,982 Euro Grade 2 at Compeigne only in October. The second, Gold Tweet, followed up in a Grade 2 (beat the winner), and was last seasons Cleeve Hurdle winner. That form suggests he is absolutely chucked in this Veterans Company off a mark of 128, and he wasn’t disgraced off 130 when fifth in a Grade 3 Handicap at Cheltenham last month, ahead of several rock solid types.
This represents a huge drop in class as although it is a 0-150, the top weight is a 139-rated 12-year-old we haven’t seen since May 2022 and you’d have to think that a reproduction of his fifth last time out would see him be bang there against some of these types, who you wouldn’t put in the same breath as a Graded type in their current form.
3:15 Newbury – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1)(4yo+) – Altobelli – 8/1 2pt WIN
Class often comes to the fore in the coveted Betfair Hurdle and Harry Fry’s ALTOBELLI fits the typical mould of the unexposed improver who tends to win this contest. Over the last ten renewals, the winners had previous form in Graded contests, indicating how highly regarded they’re held in order to take race of this nature, and Altobelli was regarded well enough by connections to feature in the Grade One Top Novices’ Hurdle last season after notching up a hat trick (beat Ginny’s Destiny in a bumper). While he finished well down the field there, he returned this season with a promising second at Ascot in November. The son of Maxios sported a first time tongue-tie there, which isn’t much of an issue given three of the four winners of the Betfair Hurdle were equipped with this aid. Despite the aid, he was plenty keen enough throughout the race in rear, failing to settle having been held wide without cover, while the winner (Knickerbockerglory) was favoured by a prominent pitch on the rail throughout. In hindsight, it was a pleasing performance to be beaten just four lengths giving 6lb away to the winner given the amount of extra distance covered under a firm grip.
Altobelli then ran a similar race in the Betfair Exchange Trophy when third behind the smart pair of Impose Toi and Luccia, with the former subsequently finishing third off 3lbs higher in the Lanzarote. Several of the rivals that day re-oppose but Fry’s mount comes in one of the most unexposed, whereas the rest are likely on fair mark for now. Having just his third start in handicaps, the experience of those two races will likely have knocked the freshness out of him and I’d expect him to be given a ride with more cover this time around, sitting just off the pace which will likely be a good enough clip. He’ll appreciate the ground should it come up soft and can break his handicapping duck.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Value Punts
1:30 Newbury – Betfair Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-140) – Kyntara – 10/1 1pt EW (4 places Paddy Power)
2:20 Newbury – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Amarillo Sky – 12/1 0.5pt EW (2 places)
2:25 Warwick – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (10yo+ 0-150) – Champagne Mystery – 12/1 1.5pt WIN (14s 355, 16/1 Skybet)
3:15 Newbury – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1)(4yo+) – Altobelli – 8/1 2pt WIN
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Djelo Can Capitalise on Open Arkle
With Cheltenham continuing to close in, Matty Sutcliffe looks to the novice chases for his third ante-post column looking forward to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival. In particular, he has a Venetia Williams-trained runner on his radar. Published: 5.30pm 6th February (Odds correct at time of publication) Arkle – Djelo (25/1 generally, 33/1 Bet365 NRNB EW)…
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