Chepstow and York represent two of the three meetings with live terrestrial racing on Saturday. Matty Sutcliffe focuses solely on those cards for his six best bets across the day, including a 33/1 chance that is the “best each-way bets this weekend.”
1:30 York – Coral Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) – Killavia 16/1 0.5pt EW
KILLAVIA never looked comfortable at Doncaster in the Flying Childers when outpaced almost immediately and failing to pick up from rear, but I’m happy to draw a line through that and we can always forgive a filly for one bad run, thus she’s an attractive proposition on earlier form.
After shaping well on debut over six, she dropped to five furlongs at Sandown and gave 1/2F Rising Power a fright when travelling all over the eventual winner, who just pulled out more in the final strides. She went back to Sandown for the Listed Dragon Stakes and ran a huge race at 33/1 in third, as she was penned in by the head second Military Code who got the first run on her, and once she saw daylight she flew home late shaping as if a step up in trip would suit. That form makes her a strong contender here as the winner franked it next time out when a length second in the G2 Princess Of Margaret Stakes finishing ahead of Flowerhead who’s 6/1 for this contest, and then she backed that up with a third in the G2 Lowther at the Ebor Festival.
She made all to win a run of the mill Sandown Fillies Maiden, and if she’s able to break and travel smoother early on from stall ten here I’d expect to adopt similar tactics and this half sister to smart two year old Cold Case can bounce back to form now stepping up in trip.
2:05 York – Coral ‘Pipped At The Post’ Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Have Secret 33/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Last year’s fifth HAVE SECRET is effectively 4lbs lower with the excellent Warren Fentiman taking 5lbs off this time around and this looks a slightly weaker renewal this time around. He fared best of those to come from off the pace there on ground that favoured the prominent racers, and I think he’s slightly better on a sounder surface.
He shrugged off a below par effort at Doncaster on seasonal debut when justifying favouritism at Ripon in April, comfortably drawing late on to win by four lengths. He then backed that effort up at York over C&D on a firmer surface when hitting the front a tad too soon to finish a length behind the re-opposing Tony Montana here, and on that form alone he looks wildly overpriced.
Despite getting beat at 2/1F back at Ripon, he posted a career best RPR splitting a pair in receipt of 13lbs and 10lbs respectively having stayed on too late from rear with the winner making all, and his next three starts struck me as the type of efforts to lower his mark for a race like this.
He shaped as if in need of the run after a 68-day layoff at Ayr last time out, and given his solid course and distance form I expect he’ll bounce back to form and run a big race at insulting odds, provided he can break well from his wide draw.
2:45 Chepstow – DragonBet / Native River Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – The Boola Boss 12/1 1pt WIN
Sean Bowen was initially jocked up on his father horse Light N Strike with Ben Jones booked to ride THE BOOLA BOSS, but since declarations he’s now on The Boola Boss for Rebecca Curtis who he has an exceptional record for in the last 12 months, with five wins from 12 runners.
The Quest For Peace gelding has a solid record over fences, reading. 31152130PU311 (5-12) and when racing over this distance of 2m7f, his record reads 111. The latest success came in April when a twelve length winner over C&D off 8lbs lower, and that form has been franked healthily by the second who’s now rated 17lbs higher having won his latest two starts for the Bowens.
That was a career best effort last time out and he hit the line strongly without ever looking beat turning for home, and if able to adopt prominent tactics in this field he could take some beating off a handy low weight and preferred going provided he’s ready to go from this layoff.
3:15 York – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Strike Red 20/1 0.5pt EW 6 places
We landed this race with STRIKE RED last season who reclaimed his crown having won the race in 2022 and it only appears sensible to retain the faith in what looks to be his Gold Cup.
The Dark Angel gelding has been in consistent form this season, featuring in several competitive class two handicaps including a length sixth in the Sky Bet Dash Handicap when unsuitably drawn widest of all and staying on late down the wide outside. That form looks strong, with the fifth beaten half a length in the valuable Constantine Handicap at the Ebor meeting before a short head second at Doncaster, the fourth winning since, the second beaten half a length in the Ayr Gold Cup and the winner taking listed honours at York last time out.
Strike Red was second in the Stewards Cup next time out, finishing ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup winner Run Boy Run and while his form has dipped in his latest two starts, his mark has dropped 2lbs to 93 which he took this race off last season and he looks primed for his hat trick.
3:20 Chepstow – Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Take No Chances 33/1 1.5pt EW 5 places
Royal Infantry looks to be the yards main hope from their trio in here, but I think TAKE NO CHANCES is one of the best each-way bets you’ll find this weekend and while we’re obviously having to second guess with the yard regarding whether they’re ‘trying’ or not, I’d like to think that with 39k to the winner they shall be and at 33/1 I’m more than happy to find out.
The Milan mare was a five length third to Josh The Boss in this race last season, finishing a length behind the yard’s Doyen Quest who franked that form when comfortable winning at Cheltenham next time out. While Take No Chances is 10lbs higher this time around, she improved drastically as the season went on.
She bolted in at Wetherby in a mares’ Listed contest, she wasn’t disgraced when fifth in the Fighting Fifth but it’s her two length third in a mares’ handicap at Cheltenham that gives her a strong chance here. She carried top weight and gave 7lbs to Wodhooh, who won the Martin Pipe on her next start and then finished a two length second to Lossiemouth in G1 company at Aintree, now rated 24lbs higher than winning at Cheltenham. In second there was Joyeuse who was in receipt of 18lbs from Take No Chances, and she backed that up when bolting up in the Betfair Hurdle now rated 23lbs higher.
Take No Chances then won a Grade Two at Ascot beating Kargese, and while you could argue she will have needed that run, she was still sent off the 2/5F and subsequently landed the County Hurdle. Take No Chances was ridden for place money the next twice when 9L and 11L behind Lossiemouth at Cheltenham and Aintree, and she was perhaps over the top by April when a ten length fifth in the G2 Select Hurdle though she was far from disgraced.
Her form figures fresh read 42331232 which bodes well for the each way part of the bet, and while she is higher in the weights this time around, the majority of her form from last year should see her hit the frame at the very minimum once more providing she’s given a ‘true’ account of herself.
4:00 Chepstow – Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow ‘Four Years Old’ Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo) – Turn And Finish 14/1 1pt EW 4 places
I’d expect Harry Derham to have a plethora of well-handicapped horses this season after being unable to use his gallops for the majority of last season, and subsequently his season never really got going.
TURN AND FINISH looks attractively treated off a mark of 121 given he was beaten a length by Puturhandstogether, who subsequently took the Fred Winter two starts later and is now rated 144. Turn And Finish justified 2/9F odds on yard debut by the skin of teeth at Catterick in January to fend off a subsequent winner, and while he was well beaten in the Fred Winter, he was always behind there after being hampered and slowly away at the start.
He bounced back to form when a three length second to the well handicapped Anyharminasking at Newcastle, staying on well having made a couple errors on the home straight. He failed to get competitive when 6/1 for a strong Punchestown handicap, but dropping back into four year old company should suit him better and if able to rediscover his earlier smart form, he can show up well for a yard who took this in 2023 particularly on the back of two spins on the flat to dust off the cobwebs.
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