Matty Sutcliffe has found four early value selections ahead of this weekend throughout the action at Ascot and Haydock. They include a horse of Venetia Williams’ who has won for the column before.
Published: 1:20pm, Wednesday, 14th February (Odds correct at time of publication)
2:25 Ascot – Ascot Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Irish Hill (9/1 generally, 14/1 Coral/Ladbrokes) 0.5pt EW (4 places)
IRISH HILL was a pointer for the column (30th December) when faring “best of those racing prominently (others finished 28L 4th, 61L 5th, PU) at Newbury beaten eight lengths into second by the well-backed favourite (split pair who came from rear)”. I noted in that segment that he’s dropped 2lbs below his last win which came in this contest last season off a mark of 128, and given he’s dropped a further pound after finishing midfield in the Lanzarote, he has to be strongly considered for a repeat success in this race off 3lbs lower, which is likely to have been the plan for some while. Nicholls hasn’t jocked anyone up yet but Bryony Frost rode him at Fakenham before Cobdem took the reigns to win the race last season, and Frost was on board in the Lanzarote so hopefully Cobden retains the faith and is back on board for Saturday, which will surely indicate a strong signal of intent, particularly given the race is worth twice as much in prize money this season.
Monviel 8/1 (generally) 1pt WIN
The other one I’d like to be on side with in this race is MONVIEL for Harry Derham, who can follow in the footsteps of his old boss and take this with a previously progressive type over hurdles. If you’re willing to Monviel for his disappointing effort last time out where he had two valid excuses (irregular heartbeat/lost left-fore shoe) then there’s a chance he’s seriously chucked in off a mark of 128 back over hurdles. Prior to that he made a promising debut over fences on favourable soft ground when a 2L 2nd to leading British Arkle hope JPR One in receipt of 2lbs, who’s now rated 20lbs higher, so immediately there’s reason to believe he’s a well-handicapped animal.
I’ve halved the point here in case that heart issue from last time out reoccurs, as I don’t often like chancing one on the back of an issue like that, but if Harry Derham has him right then he can prove to be much better than a mark of 128 back in this sphere. He was 2/3 in novice hurdles in the ’21/’22 campaign, latterly giving 7lbs to the now 131 rated Operation Manna. He was then finished midfield in the Imperial Cup dominated by 9L winner Surprise Package, before regaining the winning threat on seasonal debut in ’22 by eight lengths in a competitive course handicap. He evidently came forward from his novice season as he was 5th in the G3 Betfair Hurdle that naturally worked out well with the likes of Filey Bay (2nd) filling the same spot in the County Hurdle Handicap at Cheltenham, before improving on last seasons effort in the Imperial Cup with a seven lengths 5th.
He shaped in those G3 like a step up in trip would suit so the conditions this weekend should suit this course winner, who won’t mind which way the ground turns up. Harry Derham continues to be in flying form this season and he’s 3-1-2 in handicap hurdles at Ascot.
3:00 Ascot – Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Victtorino 6/1 (generally) 1.5pt WIN
VICTTORINO was a winner for the column when taking the Howden Silver Cup over course and distance in December and I’m keen to keep him onside once more. He was below par last time out down in trip in a G3 handicap at Cheltenham last time out but I’m happy to draw a line through that for a number of reasons. Firstly, dropping down in distance seemed a bizarre move given how well he stayed over three miles here twice before. Then Charlie Deutsch had him unusually positioned widest of all and never seemed to be going sweetly, jumping sluggishly throughout, with Deutsch easing off on the turn for home.
Victtorino should be much happier going back up in distance here where he’s 2/2 from, and he ticks plenty of the trends for this contest. The last ten years have shown you need one who’s had at least one win right-handed, four of the last ten winners raced at Cheltenham last time out, and graded form is also key given eight of the last eleven winners contested graded races last time out, with Ascot form also key. Venetia Williams has won two of the last seven renewals, both with French-bred’s, including with Tenor Nivernais in 2017 who followed a similar path as Victtorino given he was 3rd in the Howden Silver cup that season and was also beaten in the same G3 at Cheltenham prior to winning the contest.
There’s two downsides to this selection refraining me from making this a stronger bet, one being he’s a six year old and since it’s inception in 1966, no 6yos have won this race. That said, just one 5yo had won the Silver Cup (began in 1965) until Victtorino, and he was exceptionally mature for a five year old turning six at the back end of last year. The other issue is the yard form of Venetia Williams, which I did note when tipping up Easy As That at Cheltenham last time out. She’s had just one winner recently though that was one coming from a 961 day layoff, so it’s tricky to weigh up the reason as to why some aren’t quite right given that one must have been cherry ripe.
If we were to put a line through the yard form and run last time out which appeared as a sighter for this, and judge him on his Silver Cup win, then he rates a worthy contender given he took that race off top-weight seemingly easier than the distance suggests as he idled in front before going again once Yeah Man reached his quarters, and both Flegmatik (3rd) and Larry (8th) have gone in since.
The yard are three from six in course handicap chases this season (£24.50+) and they operate at an overall 20% strike rate in these conditions in the last five seasons, with Charlie Deutsch an excellent 6-4-4 (£34.00+) in course handicap chases this season.
3:15 Haydock – Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Full Back 25/1 (generally) 0.5pt ew (3 places)
The Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield was used as a prep race for Bristol De Mai when subsequently winning this contest in 2022 (albeit he was 2nd, winner was DSQ through a banned substance) and which heightens interest around Iwilldoit, Highland Hunter and FULL BACK, who all contested that race at the back end of last month. The latter mentioned is the one I like in here, though he does require a fair bit of faith. We hadn’t seen the Gary Moore gelding since pulling up when favourite for the Southern Nations in 2022, in 434 days prior to last time out. At 100/1 he clearly stood no chance and was only there for a leg stretcher, but before he fell five out I thought he was travelling and jumping perfectly well. It wasn’t a crushing fall so hopefully he’s not been psychologically effected by it, but we know Gary Moore’s horses are as tough as they come and he’s made a habit of taking these marathon races this season, notably with Nassalam completing the Welsh National trial/ proper double, and Movethechains taking the Sussex National.
If Moore has him fit for this then he’ll have a very good chance carrying a low weight off a mark of 133, 2lbs below his last winning mark and 4lbs below his 2nd to Yala Enki in the Portman Cup over 3m4f, and that latter piece of form suggests this trip will be no issue. He’s been predominantly kept to soft ground throughout this career so conditions won’t be an issue and although there is no jockey on top yet, if Caolin Moore is given the leg up then that’ll seriously heighten confidence.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Value Punts
2:25 Ascot – Ascot Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Irish Hill (9/1 generally, 14/1 Coral/Ladbrokes) 0.5pt EW (4 places)
2:25 Ascot – Ascot Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Monviel 8/1 (generally) 1pt WIN
3:00 Ascot – Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Victtorino 6/1 (generally) 1.5pt WIN
3:15 Haydock – Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Full Back 25/1 (generally) 0.5pt ew (3 places)
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Long Shot Taken for Glory in Stayers’
There are exactly four weeks left until the 2024 Cheltenham Festival and Matty Sutcliffe continues his quest for some late ante-post value. He has found one at a huge price for the Stayers’ Hurdle from a lesser-known stable that can reward each-way punters. Published: 2.00pm, 13th February (Odds correct at time of publication) Stayers’ Hurdle…
Tue 13 Feb 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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