After a sensational Cheltenham Festival in which he fired in 14/1, 9/1, 17/2 and 8/1 winners across the week, Matty Sutcliffe returns with an eye on the weekend and the return of the flat season. Across Saturday’s cards, he has seven selections for you to follow.
Published: 2:25pm, Thursday, 21st March (Odds correct at time of publication)
1:30 Bangor – DragonBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Llandinabo Lad 0.5pt EW 14/1 Bet 365, 11/1 Hills, 10/1 Sky (3 places)
The return to hurdles will hopefully revive LLANDINABO LAD from a spell in the doldrums. His last eight runs have come over fences, beginning in October 2022 off a mark of 133. He ran creditably enough last season, behind the likes of Thunder Rock, Stage Star and Excelsis Deo, and he didn’t go unbacked when 9/2 behind the subsequent Ultima winner Chianti Classico.
He returns to hurdles some 18lb lower when last seen in this sphere, and given how record here reads 212 from three starts, he’s worth chancing that returning here on his favourable soft ground will spark improvement in what looks a weak enough Class Two.
2:10 Newbury – Bet In-Play On Racing With BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-130) – Onethreefivenotout 10/1 0.5pt EW (3 places)
This contest unearthed the smart Blow Your Wad last season and there’s some similar unexposed types in here. One who I thought would go on to be a smart type a couple years ago was ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT. The son of Milan, a 150,000 Euros Goffs Store sourced by Tom Malone, made a winning bumper debut in October 2021 though wasn’t seen again until October 2023.
He can be forgiven for pulling up at Chepstow there from a 741-day layoff, but he rewarded connections’ patience with some promise when going down by a length to Lump Sum who’s now rated 135 having won the Grade 2 Dovecote last time out. Onethreefivenoutout was then beaten a neck at Kempton on Boxing Day, two lengths ahead of a dual subsequent winner (117r), shaping like a step up in trip would suit.
He was reportedly never travelling at Sandown so we can draw a line through that, and he finally broke his hurdles duck in when equipped with first time cheek-pieces at Wincanton last month on heavy ground. Though his last four efforts have come right-handed, the wide/galloping nature of Newbury shouldn’t be much of an issue particularly given he jumped left in places at Kempton and a mark of 117 looks workable particularly on that Kempton form. Paul Nicholls is £25.70+ to a £1 stake in handicap hurdles here in the last five seasons and Onethreefivenotout can boost that return this weekend.
2:25 Doncaster – William Hill Epic Boost Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) – Titian 1pt WIN
TITIAN was agonisingly beaten a neck in this contest last season off a 2lb higher mark and this will likely have been the aim for some time. His course record with soft in the going reads 3125 (latter came when three lengths behind Liberty Lane), and his record off a break reads 121F5133 (two outliers came over hurdles and on unfavourable GF ground), so he should be primed to go one better this time around off his last winning mark.
2:40 Newbury – Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-150) – Solo 11/2 (generally, 7/1 Bet 365) 1pt WIN
SOLO has gone left-handed just four times in his nineteen starts for Paul Nicholls, but his best effort (143 RPR) going this way came here behind a subsequent winner in October 2021, so returning to this wide, galloping track shouldn’t be too much of an issue and that’s probably factored into his price here.
Of his top ten RPRs, nine of them have come in fields of seven or less and a mark of 144 (Gingell’s 5lb claim factored in) should be workable on his effort in the Haldon Gold Cup in November, where he gave 10lb to the subsequent Grade 1 Clarence House winner Elixir De Nutz who’s now rated 13lb higher after a string of successful efforts. Gingell is one from three in course handicap chases and his mount provides the class angle in here, with Nicholls seeking a fourth win in this contest since 2015.
3:05 Bangor – Dragonbet Born From The Betting Ring Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+ 0-110) – Tribesmans Glory 1pt WIN SP
I’ve been waiting to back TRIBESMANS GLORY for some time now. He was a pointer for the column in January when third over hurdles at Wincanton behind two inform types, finishing eight lengths and fourteen lengths ahead of two dual subsequent winners. I noted in the column that his “top four RPR’s (118, 115, 113, 102) have all come over fences on left handed, sharp(ish) tracks (Plumpton, Bangor, Southwell)… and would be of strong interest whenever he gets his prime conditions”. I had initially thought we’d see him at Stratford last week but there was seemingly no suitable races, but the fact they return to Bangor and he gets the aforementioned conditions is surely a signal of intent. Furthermore, the Devonshire based yard will be making a five hour trip for just one runner, and hopefully this long awaited plan can at least pay the petrol.
Obviously this selection requires a leap of faith given his recent form, and he pulled up when last seen in this sphere, but he’s 10lb lower there and the right handed, galloping Exeter wouldn’t have suited, and hopefully this course winner can bounce back to form now granted his prime conditions off his lowest career mark over fences.
3:35 Doncaster – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Liberty Lane 2pt WIN 4/1 + Thunder Ball 16/1 1pt EW 5 places
Four-year-old’s have dominated the Lincoln in recent seasons, as have those at the top-end of the weights with the OR’s of the last ten Lincoln winners reading 107, 102, 100, 100, 99, 100, 100, 100, 102. Given just six have been declared with an OR of 100+, focusing on those shouldn’t see me too far off deciphering the winner of this ever competitive handicap.
LIBERTY LANE was a winner for the column over course and distance last season and I’m retaining the faith this time around. Sadly he’s halved in price in the last couple of days and as you all know, putting up a favourite in a handicap of this nature is completely against my morals, but at 4/1, I still suggest he represents value from a very favourable draw in 20.
The son of Teofilo ticks the aforementioned trends and then some. Horses who ran at Newmarket last time out have a good record, as do course winners. It’s easy enough to forgive Liberty Lane for his 13-length 28th in the Cambridgeshire on good-to-firm ground, taking his record on the going to 0-3 (7th, 11th, 28th), and that probably came too soon after his nose success here on softer going.
The issue with Liberty Lane in these big handicaps as a three-year-old is he was far too keen throughout, hence not getting home. However, now connections have gelded him, hopefully that abolishes his coltish tendencies. That said, he settled perfectly over course and distance last September, where he had the subsequent Balmoral winner eleven lengths back in 14th, taking his record on soft going and fresh to 2-2. A mark of 102 doesn’t look beyond him particularly if a gelding operation has settled him down, and this strong traveller can get back to winning ways under his perfect conditions.
As mentioned, I couldn’t bring it upon myself to have my sole selection in the Lincoln as the 4/1 favourite (for all I do think he’ll go off shorter), and looking down the market THUNDER BALL makes some appeal at larger odds. He’s the only other four year old rated 100+ so he ticks the key boxes, and we any luck we’ll even have the forecast on that basis. Progeny of Night Of Thunder are no stranger to success in the mud and Thunder Ball recorded a career best RPR when last seen, dotting up by three lengths in soft conditions at Goodwood over a mile under Alec Voikhansky. He was put up 6lb for that effort but the third subsequently followed up in listed company, and given he fared best of those who raced up the centre in the Cambridgeshire (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th all raced near side), there’s likely plenty more to come from him off a mark of 101.
He’s unexposed on soft going after just two attempts, with the first coming when placing first at Goodwood August before losing the race in the Stewards room to the subsequent Balmoral winner The Gatekeeper, with the 3rd (Ouzo) unbeaten in three efforts since now rated 6lb higher, so there’s every reason to believe this progressive four year old can improve once more for this softer going, and given he’s a half brother to several with form over further, any extra stamina reserves will aid his cause too.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Value Punts
1:30 Bangor – DragonBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Llandinabo Lad 0.5pt EW 14/1 Bet 365, 11/1 Hills, 10/1 Sky (3 places)
2:10 Newbury – Bet In-Play On Racing With BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-130) – Onethreefivenotout 10/1 0.5pt EW (3 places)
2:25 Doncaster – William Hill Epic Boost Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) – Titian 1pt WIN
2:40 Newbury – Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-150) – Solo 11/2 (generally, 7/1 Bet 365) 1pt WIN
3:05 Bangor – Dragonbet Born From The Betting Ring Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+ 0-110) – Tribesmansglory 1pt WIN SP
3:35 Doncaster – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Liberty Lane 2pt WIN 4/1
3:35 Doncaster – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Thunder Ball 16/1 1pt EW 5 places
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Day 4
After an immensely successful Wednesday at the Cheltenham Festival, Matty Sutcliffe is seeking to end the meeting on even more of a high. He has six selections across five races on the Friday, including along-term fancy in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Published: 11.30am, Thursday, March 14th (Odds correct at time of publishing) 1.30 Cheltenham –…
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