With eight races live on ITV this Saturday, Matty Sutcliffe has taken early aim at three of them with his value selections for the weekend, including a tip for Newcastle’s feature staying handicap, the Eider Chase.
Published: 1:30pm, Wednesday, 21st February (Odds correct at time of publication)
2:08 Newcastle – Betting.Bet Eider Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Flower Of Scotland (12/1 generally) 1pt E/W (3 places)
The Eider Handicap Chase looks a wide open affair at this stage and the current 7/2 favourite Anglers Crag looks incredibly skinny. Despite his upward curve since joining Brian Ellison, all his wins have come on good-to-soft ground for the yard and is winless on heavy since his bumper days in 2020 over 2m. There is little to suggest he’ll improve for the four-mile test and if the ground comes up heavy, I’d be concerned he’d even make it around.
One who is guaranteed to stay the trip is the French-bred FLOWER OF SCOTLAND, who’ll have no issues regarding the ground either. Sandy Thompson had a quiet enough start this season with seven winners from sixty runners so we can draw a line through Flower Of Scotland pulling up in the Cumberland Handicap Chase when last seen in November off a 225-day break, when fitness and yard form were likely to be a factor. All three of her career victories have come second time up after a break, including when winning the Scottish Borders National off 6lb lower in December 2022 from 1lb out of the weights. She then had a break before contesting the Edinburgh National off 122 when beaten eight lengths, finishing four lengths behind a subsequent Cheltenham winner, and three lengths in front off the subsequent London National winner Truckers Lodge. She wasn’t disgraced dropping back to 3m2f over hurdles at Kelso, with the subsequent Edinburgh National winner (Inis Oirr) in behind and the winner has since improved 8lb for fences, with his mark due to go up further when reevaluated on Monday after taking a staying chase at Carlisle earlier this week.
With the yard and Ryan Mania in excellent form of late, I’m willing to forgive that effort in November and she’s overpriced at 12’s off a low weight with conditions guaranteed to suit more than most.
3:00 Kempton – Coral Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Panjari (11/2 generally) 1pt WIN
Paul Nicholls has won three of the last ten renewals of the Dovecote, with all of them having won a Taunton Novice Hurdle earlier on in the season. Two of those were ex-flat horses, the other had been in a handicap already that season, and PANJARI ticks all of those boxes.
The market is currently favouring Lump Sum and Fiercely Proud, who finished in that order behind Jeriko Du Reponet last time out. I couldn’t have that form as rating strong, as the winner appears to be incredibly overhyped, and I’d prefer to stick with the more exposed, yet progressive Panjari. While he is effectively 6-7lb worse off with that pair respectively, he wasn’t disgraced when a length third in a Cheltenham handicap behind the subsequent Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle third and fourth, which is undeniably the better form than what the top two in the market have achieved thus far. Panjari blew out with no headgear equipped at Musselburgh next time out, but with first time cheekpieces applied, he bolted up in the Scottish Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last time out. While it’s hard to grasp that form, the second (Berties Ballet) was previously second to Favour And Fortune in November, a horse who has finished runner-up in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle and behind only a Mullins inmate in a Listed hurdle at Exeter.
This big son of Camelot will have no issues if the ground comes up soft and he seems to be learning the jumping game quickly having initially had the odd quirk transitioning from the flat, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off vying for favouritism.
3:37 Kempton – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Lord Baddesley (6/1 generally) 1pt WIN
Nine year olds have won six of the last four runnings of this coveted contest and LORD BADDESLEY can continue that trend for the in-form Chris Gordon. I don’t think this is the deepest renewal in recent years, and I wouldn’t look too much into Flegmatik’s course and distance win last time out, which was a weak enough contest (Chianti Classico in second, though trainer Kim Bailey couldn’t buy a winner then) and he’ll be effectively 6lb higher here.
Lord Baddesley began his season with a staying on third when beaten three lengths over 2m3f at Plumpton carrying top-weight behind two progressive sorts. Deeper Blue (second) bumped into Henry’s Friend last time out who took the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot last weekend now rated 142, and the winner (Sacre Coeur) has improved 8lb since that Plumpton success, suggesting Lord Baddesley’s mark of 132 is fine.
Lord Baddesley ran to a joint career-high mark of 136 last time out and this son of Doyen has been crying out for a three-mile test of this sort for a while. While we could argue he’s relatively exposed after 23 runs, he was up to 2m6f for the first time at Newbury last time out and travelled ever so sweetly in rear, just falling to reel in the progressive Inch House, who was runner-up to last year’s Kim Muir second Stumpton next time out. Lord Baddesley stayed on strongly there, suggesting once more that this 3m trip will unlock further improvement, and although he is back on a career-high mark, he can be up to defying it in this weak enough renewal.
The only slight query would be if the ground came up very soft as his best form has tended to come on better going, but he had form on heavy ground as a novice hurdler and was fourth here on soft ground in a novice chase on Boxing Day 2022 behind Balco Coastal and Solo.
Added: 4pm Thursday, 22nd February (Odds correct at time of publication)
2:27 Kempton – Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Arclight (6/1 Coral/Ladbrokes) 1pt WIN
I’m slightly cursing myself for not putting ARCLIGHT up yesterday where she was a slightly bigger price, but the case I was to make has been further boosted by Marsh Wren winning at Thurles today and I think she represents reasonable value still at 6s.
The withdrawal of Nickle Back has changed the complexion of the race, and that’s probably another reason why I refrained from putting Arclight up as if Nickle back is in a similar mood as to what he was at Sandown last time out, then I’d struggle to see him beaten. Nevertheless, Arclight has been a revelation over fences this season, racking up a treble as a four-year-old last year. She took her course record to 2/2 when beating Notnowlinda a shade cosily off 116, with the third going up 18lb since after three subsequent victories. Arclight then defied a strong market drift in a Listed mares’ novices’ chase at Exeter on soft ground, again in a comfortable manner. The second won next time out and the third won a Listed mares chase last time out beating Cromwell’s 146-rated Malina Girl, who bolted up in a Premier handicap at Cheltenham in November. Arclight then completed her treble on heavy ground at Wincanton beating Marsh Wren, who won well off 127 next time out and, as mentioned, won a Listed mares’ chase at Thurles earlier today.
Arclight gets weight all around here, and is only 2lb worse off with Le Patron and Tahmuras. The latter has looked an awkward customer over fences and I’m happy to leave Le Patron this time, though he would be dangerous if getting an uncontested lead. Arclight is a hardy mare who will relish these conditions and while Paul Nicholls has dominated this race in the last twenty years or so, Nicky Henderson did win it with a five-year-old mare back in 1999. I’d expect her to sit just behind the leaders with a nice toe into the race, and given she’s one of only two course winners in this contest (other is Blow Your Wad, would be concerned about soft/heavy ground), she’s slightly overpriced at 6s.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Value Punts
2:08 Newcastle – Betting.Bet Eider Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Flower Of Scotland (12/1 generally) 1pt E/W (3 places)
3:00 Kempton – Coral Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Panjari (11/2 generally) 1pt WIN
3:37 Kempton – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Lord Baddesley (6/1 generally) 1pt WIN
2:27 Kempton – Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Arclight (6/1 Coral/Ladbrokes) 1pt WIN
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Bally a Bet in Coral Cup
There are now entries in all but three of the races at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival. With the handicap entries having come out earlier this week, Matty Sutcliffe has picked out a fancy in the Coral Cup on Wednesday at a double-figure price. Published: 9.15am, 21st February (Odds correct at time of publication) Coral Cup…
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