A busy weekend of action sees our man Matty Sutcliffe pursuing a number of bets across the cards at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury. He has eight early value selections to follow, including some pointers from earlier columns.
Published: 4:00pm, Wednesday, 28th February (Odds correct at time of publication)
1:42 Kelso – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150) – Foster’sisland 16/1 0.5pt EW (Coral/Ladbrokes, 3 places)
It’s safe to say that this won’t be the strongest 0-150 we’ve seen in recent times, and it looks a race that will cut up plenty come Saturday. FOSTER’SISLAND is one of only two C&D winners entered in here, and hopefully bringing him back here for the first time since November 2021 (his only run here), where he ran to a career best RPR at the time, will spark a return to the winners’ enclosure.
He’s been exclusively campaigned at Wetherby in the last three starts, taking his course record to 0-10, and his second to the well backed Santos Blue in January was sandwiched by two lesser efforts. There are potential plausible excuses for those efforts, the first being he’s never gone well fresh, and the second being he fared the best of those held up in rear in a race which favoured those to the fore. He’s back on his last winning mark of 124 when bolting up at Bangor last season, beating a dual subsequent winner now rated 130. His best winning form tends to come after a few runs, and he’s likely to have been primed for a tilt toward this 15k race back over a winning course and distance for the first time in four years.
1:55 Newbury – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Kandoo Kid 6/1 1pt WIN
Paul Nicholls has won nine of the 19 runnings of this contest and can hopefully maintain that fantastic record with KANDOO KID this weekend. While the trainer is doubly represented at this stage with Outlaw Peter, that one has done the majority of his winning on better ground. By Kapgarde and sister (half to one) to two soft ground winners, Kandoo Kid will have no issues on this forecast soft-heavy ground at Newbury, so I’d imagine he’ll be Nicholls’ main hope.
Part of this bet is that several of these are doubly entered over the weekend or hold Cheltenham entries, so of the 18 entered here, I’d be surprised if more than half of those turn up, including the third favourite Demnat, who’s declared for Friday. Kandoo Kid can be forgiven for pulling up on good ground in the Great Yorkshire Chase when sent off the 13/2 JF, as Annual Invictus set a strong gallop up front and only six of them finished within 20 lengths of the winner. The drop back in trip over a winning course and distance should see this strong travelling novice in a much better light now, and I still think he has more to give off a mark of 140. He beat the consistent Ferro Banbou by two lengths here in December, who subsequently placed in two Grade 3s at Cheltenham behind Fugitif and Shakem Up’Arry. The fourth from that race has ran creditably the next three times, beaten eight lengths in a 26K handicap behind subsequent Coral Trophy winner Forward Plan, four lengths in the Great Yorkshire Chase, and only beaten 10 lengths in the G1 Ascot Chase, 3/4L behind the 163-rated Ahoy Senor.
Kandoo Kid was then second to Festival-bound Djelo in the Howden Noel Novices’ chase at Ascot, with that one finishing runner-up in the Scilly Isles behind the runaway winner Nickle Back. That run alone suggests a mark of 140 looks workable given Djelo is rated 148, and with no entries elsewhere, Kandoo Kid is likely to have been primed for this more than most.
The Big Bite 20/1 0.5pt EW (3 places)
The other one who I can’t let go of here is THE BIG BITE, who won this contest off 1lb higher last season. Annoyingly, he is one of those in here who holds two other entries this weekend but given his isn’t jocked up for any yet, I’ll take the chance that this will be his eventual target. The typically quirky son of Scorpion improved for first time cheek-pieces in this last season, and possibly had excuses on the next two starts when losing a shoe at Aintree before jumping poorly on seasonal debut over C&D in December. The cheek-pieces were left off when ninth at Doncaster over hurdles last month and he shaped well enough in a race which was surely only a sighter for a tilt towards this contest. That should have put him spot on for this and I’m sure we’ll see cheekpieces reapplied if so, with soft ground no issue given he’s a multiple winner on the going. His top five RPR’s have come between the months off January-March, so it could be that he naturally perks up around this time of year `and if turning up here I’d expect he’ll outrun his odds of 20/1 to back up last years win.
2:17 Kelso – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Alnilam 13/2 1.5pt WIN
I’m slightly disappointed that the entry of Jango Baie in here suggests we won’t be seeing him in the Supreme at Cheltenham, with Aintree likely to be on the horizon instead. There’s every chance he’ll prove tough to beat here, but it’s been well documented regarding the yard form of Nicky Henderson and if there is something going around the yard, he may be well worth taking on at the top of the market giving weight away to all.
Though second in the market, it’s hard to see ALNILAM going off much bigger than what he’s currently available at (7/1 Coral) after his impressive thirteen lengths win here two weeks ago. The son of Sea The Stars was previously rated 78 on the flat for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin and he made a promising introduction to this sphere when fourth at Newbury off a 138-day break, beaten eleven lengths under a quiet ride in rear. He was only two lengths behind a subsequent winner now rated 117, and the winner has also gone in since, rated 126.
Alnilam improved for that effort when travelling ominously well in behind the 117-rated Tedtwo, who previously pulled clear with a 124-rated runner at Wetherby, before easily brushing that one off and winning hard held. He made a mistake at the last, but for a flat bred gelding, his jumping was near enough foot perfect and he quickened up under minimal urgings in the manner of a very smart, progressive horse. Though he’s not been granted an official rating yet, given he dispatched a 117-rated horse by 13 lengths on the bridle, recording an RPR of 139, I don’t think he’ll have much to find with Jango Baie, particularly in receipt of 5lb.
He would likely have won by further had he not walked through the last and if coming on again from that run, I think Anthony Charlton could have an extremely smart novice hurdler on his hands and should be well up to going close in a race of his nature, with course form an obvious plus.
3:40 Doncaster – Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Erne River 9/1 1pt WIN
I mentioned the strength of that Great Yorkshire chase form earlier and I think it’ll come to the fore here in the Grimthorpe. Some Scope could still be way ahead of his mark for his shrewd connections, but I’m keen to take him on with two who coped well with the quick gallop set in the Great Yorkshire chase, firstly in ERNE RIVER.
This horse was a pointer for the column when bouncing back to form here in December in first time cheek-pieces. I noted how he was one to keep onside of given how he was value for the winning margin, and it was pleasing to see him back up that run in the retained headgear last time out. In that Great Yorkshire Chase last time out, there was only two horse who fared well from being held up, with the first five separated by six lengths, ten lengths back to the sixth. Forward Plan was one of them, who boosted the form massively taking the Coral Trophy off a 4lbs higher mark next time out now rated 7lbs higher, and the other was Erne River, who stayed on all the way to the line. Erne River remains on a mark of 137, 7lbs below his peak mark in 2022, and was only 2 3/4L behind Sail Away who as mentioned earlier, was fourth in there G1 Ascot Chase, recording a career best RPR of 153. If Erne River continues on that upward curve then he won’t have to improve much to take this Grimthorpe particularly given he’s well handicapped on peak form as well as that run last time out, with his course form reading 11215.
Charlie Uberalles 14/1 0.5pt EW (3 places)
CHARLIE UBERALLES was a bet for us in that race last time out and I have to follow him up along the same lines as Erne River, as this form is worth its weight in gold. The son of Geordieland is still unexposed over fences and if the ground remains good this weekend then it’s hard to envisage him out of the placings with a reproduction of last time out, where he shaped as if the extra two furlongs will suit. He was only put up a pound for that three lengths third, and through subsequent form, that’s awfully lenient. He should have no issue getting the trip as he’s a full brother to a multiple winner over 3m3f on soft ground at Sedgefield, and there isn’t a whole lot of pace forecast so he could easily be let loose on the front end in Annual Invictus-esque fashion off a low weight again.
Added: 3:30pm, Thursday, 29th February (Odds correct at time of publication)
1:20 Newbury – Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Leg 3 Stayers’ Vets’ Chase Series) (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) – Fortescue 7/1 1pt WIN
FORTESCUE has found winning tricky since beating Fiddlerontheroof in the Swinley two years ago and has shown a tendency to race lazily at times, but the Shirocco gelding will be equipped with the services of Harry Cobden this time, who takes over from regular rider Hugh Nugent. If anyone can get Fortescue to race more fluently it’s Cobden, who boasts an all time 23% strike rate (£7.50+) for the in form Henry Daly.
Stepping in to Veterans company could aid the cause of Fortescue, and we can forgive his 25-length seventh at Sandown last time out on ground lively enough. He’s better judged on his two efforts prior, latterly a staying on second off top weight in heavy ground at Haydock, giving some 25ls away to the winner, finishing thirteen lengths clear of Omar Maretti in fourth, who, despite winning next time out, is 3lb worse off with Fortescue on that form so there’s no reason why he should be shorter in the betting. Before that, Fortescue was beaten six lengths by Nassalam in heavy ground at Chepstow in the Welsh Grand National Trial, who gave that form a huge boost next time out. He’s now 4lb lower than that effort, 8lb lower than his last win, and those two efforts suggested he’s still got the ability to come back into the winners enclosure especially on the forecast soft ground.
1:50 Kelso – Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Ganapathi 100/1 0.5pt EW (5 places)
GANAPATHI went down as a pointer for the column in January when signalling a return to form nine lengths behind Traprain Law at Kelso, who bolted up by ten lengths off an 8lb higher mark on Monday. The former Willie Mullins inmate backed that run up when a one length third to Paul Nicholls’ Beau Balko, traveling almost too well having gone in to the lead too early four out, faring best of those racing prominently early on. That was his best effort over fences this season and the newly equipped visor seems to be sparking life back into him, so I’m keen to see whether he translate those efforts back over hurdles, particularly as jumping over fences can be a tad high, so I just wonder whether he can be slicker from the front end in the visor over hurdles.
He was previously smart enough for Mullins over timber, finishing midfield in both the 2021 County Hurdle and 2022 Coral Cup, with his peak handicap mark reaching 145. He joined Patrick Neville on a mark of 142 and wasn’t disgraced in his three efforts over fences, and given he’s 12lb lower than his opening mark this season for Mike Smith, he’s worth chancing at massive odds in case this return to hurdles sparks further life back into him.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Value Punts
1:42 Kelso – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150) – Foster’sisland 16/1 0.5pt EW (Coral/Ladbrokes, 3 places)
1:55 Newbury – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Kandoo Kid 6/1 1pt WIN
1:55 Newbury – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – The Big Bite 20/1 0.5pt E/W
2:17 Kelso – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Alnilam 13/2 1.5pt WIN
3:40 Doncaster – Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Erne River 9/1 1pt WIN
3:40 Doncaster – Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Charlie Uberalles 14/1 0.5pt EW (3 places)
Added: 3:30pm, Thursday, 29th February (Odds correct at time of publication)
1:20 Newbury – Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Leg 3 Stayers’ Vets’ Chase Series) (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) – Fortescue 7/1 1pt WIN
1:50 Kelso – Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Ganapathi 100/1 0.5pt EW (5 places)
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Boodles Fancy For Brassil is Too Big
Matty Sutcliffe’s value book for Cheltenham is filling up by the week. With less than two weeks to go until the start of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, he adds one more bet to the mix with a selection for Fastorslow’s trainer Martin Brassil in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Published: 1.15pm, 28th February (Odds correct…
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