Matty Sutcliffe’s weekly preview for Saturday and Sunday’s racing returns this week with a bumper edition. He has found five bets of value at Sandown and Musselburgh, including in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase.
Published: 3:00pm, Wednesday 31st January (Odds correct at time of publication)
1:40 Musselburgh – Frodon Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (5yo+) – General Officer 5/1 (generally) 7/1 Skybet 1pt WIN
Giovinco will find this much easier than the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase when reportedly never travelling after pulling up there and his previous second to Stay Away Fay suggests he’s accordingly priced at 2/1. However, I’m still not entirely convinced he’s the graded animal others seem to think he is and has blotted his copybook twice over fences now, so is worth taking on at the top of the market. Donald McCain has his string in good form at the moment and is profitable to follow over fences at Musselburgh with his record in handicap chases here reading 41-9-27 (£21.50 profit to a £1 level stake) in the last five seasons, and Musselburgh specialist GENERAL OFFICER can add to that record.
The former pointer was progressive over hurdles with two wins and two places from five runs, with the outlier coming when finishing seventh in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle. He translated that form over to fences this with his form reading 2212, jumping well on chasing debut when beaten two lengths carrying 12st1lb, before bumping into the now 150-rated Master Chewy at Aintree when both racing off 121, with Pembroke in 4th now rated 8lb higher after a good 3rd in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase.
General Officer then opened his account over fences with a facile 15-length win over 2m3f at Doncaster off top-weight, though there were nine fences omitted, so it may be best not to take that form too literally. However, he was then an excellent three-length second to last season’s Grade 1 Tolworth winner Tahmuras at Aintree, who improved from his chase debut with cheek-pieces equipped. He’s an honest type having been out of the placings just once under rules from ten starts and his record here reads 112, so returning here will be a bonus, and he should give a good account of himself off a low weight, particularly with a small field looking likely.
2:15 Musselburgh – Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-150) – No Cruise Yet 11/1 (generally) 1pt WIN
Returning to a right-handed track should suit NO CRUISE YET as he can jump that way and since joining Sam England, his record going this way reads 112, all of which came at Carlisle. I don’t think the sharp left-handed nature of Catterick is his ballpark, and he took his record in blinkers to 4464 there so I’m happy enough to write that run off. Prior to that, he was a good three-length third at Newcastle in heavy ground with the winner backing that form up with a two-length third in the North Yorkshire National next time out.
That run came after 53-day break and he took his record from a layoff to 0-10 there, so he should be cherry ripe for this now. Although he still remains 6lb above his last winning mark, he was a head second to Tommie Beau in the Durham National in October off 1lb lower and that one has since gone up 8lb after taking the Southern National at Fontwell before a good second in the Sussex National. With that in mind, a mark of 115 isn’t beyond No Cruise Yet on that evidence.
This time last year he was a nine-length third in the Eider from 2lbs out of the weights over 4m1f behind the gambled on Kitty’s Light who subsequently took the Scottish National and Sandown Gold Cup, so a reproduction of that third would see No Cruise Yet right there. His record in February reads 3123 so we know he shines around this time of year, and there’s only a small handful of these who you can say for sure will revel in these conditions. Of those, Trucker’s Lodge hasn’t defied a mark this high since Uttoxeter 2020, Landen Calling is on a career high mark and didn’t have much to spare when beating a 13-year-old in the Lincolnshire National, and last year’s winner Magna Sam returns 4lb higher and was beaten 38 lengths on reappearance despite winning this race fresh last season.
2:35 Sandown – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Le Patron 4/1 (generally) 6/1 William Hill 2pt WIN
LE PATRON was a 16/1 winner for us in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ here in December and while we’re not getting anywhere near that price this time around, the 4/1 generally on offer (certainly the 6s with Hills) is still a massive price in my opinion. Hermes Allen tops the market and ran well in defeat against the wonder horse Il Est Francais at Kempton last time out, but he was only three lengths ahead of the 135-rated Kilbeg King and I’m unsure this drop back in trip at a track like Sandown will bring out the best in him.
Similarly along those lines, Corbetts Cross is evidently a talented horse but he’s going to have to brush up his jumping around Sandown, and possibly wants softer ground too. There’s a cloud over Venetia Williams’ yard at the moment and Djelo will have to prove his welfare after falling at the first last time out (also 0-2 here). Le Patron is the joint highest-rated alongside Corbetts Cross in here and was excellent last time out in the Henry VIII Novices. The ground was awfully testing there and I’m probably in the minority when I say I don’t think it was a case of he simply handled the ground better than Colonel Harry and JPR One. Both of his chase wins prior came on good ground and he has a low knee action to boot, so if anything, he’ll improve for Saturdays likely good-to-soft ground. The aforementioned Colonel Harry and JPR One have both come out and won Grade 2 events since so the form is strong, and he idled in front there so I thought we could upgrade his length success even further.
Sarah Humphrey’s free-going Nickel Back is likely going to shoot off in front which will give Le Patron a lovely sit in second. We know he clearly loves these fences and he’s a C&D winner (beat a subsequent winner), which is a big plus around here. He’s fresher than most too and goes well from a break so I’ve no issue in that department and if he’s improved again from that Grade 1 success last time out then he’ll be a very tough nut to crack.
2:50 Musselburgh – Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145) – Fiveonefive 14/1 (generally) 1pt EW (4 places)
Six-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals of this contest and FIVEONFIVE is one of just five six-year-olds among the 21 entries in here. While Irish trainers haven’t tasted success in the race in recent years, Fiveonefive’s record on this side of the sea reads 2131 and a mark of 129 doesn’t look beyond him on several bits of form. He’s evidently got a high calibre of ability given he finished second to subsequent Champion Bumper winner A Dream To Share on rules debut, and was then given three quiet rides in rear before making a successful handicap debut off 102 at Tipperary last may. He then bumped into Gordon Elliiott’s An Mhi in a novice hurdle at Perth who’d previously finished second to the likes of Facile Vega and Indiana Dream, and that one went on to win two more races to now be rated 131.
Despite a subsequent 22lb rise, Fiveonefive regained the winning thread in a £21,000 race at Cartmel beating Too Friendly who franked that form with two subsequent wins and a two-length second to the subsequent Grade 2 Elite Hurdle winner Rubaud. Fiveonefive was then an eye-catching sixth when not ideally placed in rear in a €42,000 handicap at Galway off 125 in August, and that form has worked out very well with the 128-rated fifth now rated 12lb higher after taking a Listed contest next time out. The 135-rated Buddy One in 4th is now rated 152, the 116-rated ninth is now rated 136 after taking a Listed contest at Navan, and the 131-rated tenth is now rated 145 over fences after three places in graded company.
That form alone suggests Fiveonefive is well handicapped off 129, but then after never being put into a ladies’ race, he was a ten-length third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle in October behind Nemean Lion who was subsequently fifth off top-weight in the Greatwood before a second in the Lanzarote off 140. Anyharminasking was second ahead of Fiveonefive there and has since run creditably including a second at Newbury, but the form further down the field stacks up too. The fifth (Gin Coco) beat the sixth (Favoir) at Ascot next time out, the seventh and eighth have since won cosily over fences and the tenth (Strong Leader) was second in Grade 2 company next time out as well as just a length behind Noble Yeats in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle at the weekend.
Fiveonefive was then impressive in defying a penalty at Hereford, giving Denis O’Regan a landmark victory, before finishing behind the well backed Asian Master on unfavourable heavy ground at Navan. Now he comes back on good ground into handicap company where his record reads 1162, he can bounce back to winning ways.
3:45 Sandown – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Certainly Red 10/1 (generally) 12/1 365 1pt WIN
CERTAINLY RED was a revelation in handicaps in the 22/23 season, notching up four wins culminating in a gritty success off top-weight in the Dick Hunt Trophy at Wincanton off 135 last February. I think it’s a clue in itself that he’s entered in this race here as opposed to another tilt at that Wincanton race, as he’s on that last winning mark. It’s plausible to suggest that the handicapper had caught up with him after that win but he’s not been disgraced in any of his starts since, finishing midfield in the Grade 3 Sandown Gold Cup off 142 over 3m4f, fourth in the Grade 3 Badger Beers off 140 (race worked out well), third in the London National in heavy ground here in December off 138, and can be forgiven for carrying 12st2lb only 21 days later at Newbury.
His record right-handed over obstacles reads 251241119743 as opposed to 045823464BD5 the other way, he’s a course winner off 127 and his record on ground with good in the description over obstacles reads 1421479116122 as opposed to 51BD453854034 on other ground types, so he’s got his preferred conditions. He’s versatile trip wise but should appreciate the drop back to 3m, and can redeem winning ways for connections.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Value Punts
1:40 Musselburgh – Frodon Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (5yo+) – General Officer 5/1 (generally) 7/1 Skybet 1pt WIN
2:15 Musselburgh – Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-150) – No Cruise Yet 11/1 (generally) 1pt WIN
2:35 Sandown – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Le Patron 4/1 (generally) 6/1 William Hill 2pt WIN
2:50 Musselburgh – Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145) – Fiveonefive 14/1 (generally) 1pt EW (4 places)
3:45 Sandown – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Certainly Red 10/1 (generally) 12/1 365 1pt WIN
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Sky’s the Limit for Amarillo at 100/1
Our GG expert Matty Sutcliffe returns for his second Cheltenham ante-post look ahead of the 2024 Festival. This week, he has his eyes trained on the Champion Chase and Ryanair Chase with two massive-priced selections. Published: 1.00pm 31st January (Odds correct at time of publication) Champion Chase – Amarillo Sky 66’s generally, 100/1 Betfair (E/W)…
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