Matty Sutcliffe has a keen eye on proceedings on Saturday. Across the three televised meetings, he has six value tips to fill your bet slips.
2:25 Haydock – Betfred “The Classic Bookmaker” Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95) – Kilt 5/1 1pt WIN + Cruyff Turn 12/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
The three-year-olds have dominated this contest in the last four renewals and the unexposed KILT can continue that trend. William Haggas took this with Kathab on his handicap debut last season, and Kilt looks potentially well treated off a mark of 87 for his first foray into handicaps.
The now gelded son of Kingman made a successful start to his three year old career in May when displaying a nice turn of foot to lower the colours of two well backed sorts, who’re both now rated 87. The fourth that day has since climbed to a mark of 97 in handicaps having just been beaten a neck at Goodwood last week, with the 5th now rated 92 and the 7th, 8th and 9th all winning since.
Better could have been expected from Kilt when only 6th over a mile on the July course, but he perhaps hit the front too soon and raced without cover for the last half of the race, and wasn’t given an overly hard time in the finish. The form of that race is strong, however, with the winner looking a very smart prospect when winning cosily under a penalty next time out now rated 98, and the second has bolted up twice since, latterly on Wednesday when carrying a penalty to draw away from the field in a typically smart novice. The third from that Newmarket race has been allotted a mark of 95, and the fifth is now rated 98 having won a strong race on handicap debut over the same C&D last month.
The fact that Kilt was sent off second favourite against some undoubtedly smart, progressive three year olds suggests his mark of 87 is more than workable, and a subsequent gelding operation can bring out further improvement with this flatter, galloping track likely to suit. William Haggas is in terrific form of late, and boasts a 23% strike rate in course handicaps in the last five seasons.
Should this step up into open company prove too much too soon for Kilt, then I’d like to have a saver on CRUYFF TURN, who’s been threatening to return to the winners enclosure this season for the first time since last June. Tim Easterby was the last trainer to win this without a three year old, with Mikmak in 2019, and that one was previously a solid third in the Summer Cup at Thirsk. Cruyff Turn was beaten just three lengths in the Summer Cup last time out in a strong looking renewal, weakening only late on having initially travelled well into the race.
The handicapper took that three length defeat for face value having dropped him 3lbs to a mark of 82, his lowest mark in handicaps since June 2021 when dotting up by three lengths at Leicester, and he’s some 9lbs below his last winning mark. He was below par on his penultimate effort, but he’d likely lost his race in the prelims and never featured in rear over, but on the strength of his two length third at Redcar only three starts earlier, he’s entitled to be bang there on Saturday. He was sent off joint favourite, and the winner has since gone in (now 6lbs higher), with the second also going in since and currently sits the 4/1 favourite for the 8:30 Class 2 at Chepstow at the time of writing (Thursday). He’s entered in the Clipper Handicap at York in two weeks time, a race he won off 95 in 2021, so he’d likely have to win well here to sneak into that race at the bottom of the weights should that be the plan.
3:00 Haydock – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Bracken’s Laugh 5/1 1pt WIN
This tricky seven-runner affair would’ve been wide open without Anmaat, however he has a 441 day layoff to contend with which might be just enough reason to take him on. Though his record fresh reads 21112, He was evidently chucked in off 103 for the John Smith’s Cup in 2022, and he needed the run in G3 company before taking the G1 Prix d’Ispahan last spring, so this race might provide a springboard for higher targets down the line.
Regarding the rest, a firmer surface wouldn’t necessarily suit Al Mubhir, Certain Lad, Lord North or Mujtaba, whose best form has tended to come on good (at best) or much softer. Regal Reality will enjoy the going, but he’s struggled to find his feet this season and was beaten five lengths by the 105r Point Lynas in Listed company last time out, with his slow starts becoming a hindrance.
Though BRACKEN’S LAUGH 2yo form came on softer going, he was an excellent four length fifth in a seriously deep renewal of the G3 Hampton Court at Royal Ascot in June, and the switch back, to a galloping, flatter track may aid his cause. The progressive son of Zoffany beat the 5/2F King’s Gambit by a head on debut last September whose since risen through the ranks to be rated 116 after a 1/2L defeat by Alflaila in the G2 York Stakes last month and will likely have Juddmonte aspirations.
Bracken’s Laugh was then a creditable four length 5th in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in October, a race that’s thrown up the Irish Derby winner Los Angeles, Queen’s Vase winner Illinois, and multiple French G3 winner Ramadan (only beaten a length in the French Guineas). He then reappeared with a facile success in a condition’s stakes at Chelmsford beating the subsequent Sandy Lane Stakes 2nd One, and smart 2yo Capulet who reversed that form next time out at Chester. The third that day was Jayarebe, who subsequently pulled clear of the field in the Hampton Court with King’s Gambit running on to be a close second.
With multiple form lines intertwining, there’s little doubt that Bracken’s Laugh is a smart sort. We touched on the fact that King’s Gambit had already boosted that Royal Ascot form, but so did the third Bellum Justum who was two lengths ahead of Bracken’s Laugh, having been beaten a neck by Jan Brueghel at Goodwood last week who’s now the St Leger favourite. The 6th, Sons and Lovers, has also boosted the form when beaten just a length in the Steventon Stakes next time out, and that form was confirmed when Al Aasy (2nd) won the G3 Glorious Stakes with something to spare next time out, reversing the form with Phantom Flight who was a credible one length third. Al Musmak, The seventh from the Hampton Court, also followed up in listed company next time out with a two length success though the third, Lead Artist, easily reversed that form at Goodwood last week.
Evidently, the form from the Hampton Court is arguably one of the strongest, certainly in collateral terms, bit of three year old form on offer this season and if Bracken’s Laugh has benefited from a wind operation in the interim, then he’s entitled to take his chance against his elders here, many of whom are exposed types. Given the lack of pace on offer, I’d like to see him handy and set a good gallop as he could easily get loose on the front end and put them all to the sword. He’s had a 53-day layoff, but he’s 2-2 when fresh and his trainer Richard Hughes has found some winning form having tapered off from an initially strong start to the season.
4:45 Haydock – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+) – American Arrow 4/1 2pt WIN
Perhaps the most fascinating runner on the card at Haydock is the beautifully American-bred AMERICAN ARROW. Connections were second in this race with the American-bred Random Harvest in 2022, and it’s rather telling that they send this once-raced, homebred son of American Pharaoh here in an early attempt to gain valuable black-type.
While she’ll have to step up massively on form, she was well back into evens favourite and won with relative ease by four lengths at Haydock last month, posting the closest time to standard across the whole card.
The G1 Sun Chariot Stakes entry has a fascinating pedigree. She’s by the Cape Blanco mare Californiagoldrush, owned by Alice Bamford and the winner of the G2 Sands Point Stakes at Belmont after her third in the Belmont Oaks in 2018. Her Shamardal dam bred three other winners, two of them with a top RPR of 114 with Astronomer a neck second in the G2 City of Hope Mile Stakes at Santa Anita last season and the other, Harvest Moon (named after the best song in the history of music, and if any readers are unaware, I urge you to listen to this full set by Neil Young on Youtube – Neil Young – Live in Chicago, 1992 | PBS Centre Stage), was a multiple Group winner in the US in 2020 including a two lengths fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Keeneland. Their dam, Qaaraba, was herself a G3 winner at Santa Anita after graduating through handicaps in the UK, and is a half-sister to course winner Salsada. Their progeny dates back to Salsabil, who completed the 1000 Guineas, English Oaks, and Irish Derby treble back in 1990 with a further win in the Prix Vermeille. Salsabil was a half-sister to ’91 St James’ Palace Stakes winner Marju, who sired the likes of Satono Crown (’16 Hong Kong Vase winner) and Viva Pataca, an eight time G1 winner at Sha-Tin. Marju himself was the dam-sire of the likes of Canford Cliffs, Ribchester and Ribbons (dam of Soulcombe). I’ll finally stop rambling on about pedigrees, but you can actually trace her page all the way back to The Flying Dutchman, who won 14 of his 15 races between 1848-1851, including the Derby and St Leger in 1849.
Anyway, enough about that. This is far from a deep field, with several exposed fillies and mares and I’m happy enough to take a chance with the untapped potential of American Arrow who is clearly held in serious regard by connections to take the plunge into Listed company on just her second start.
3:40 Newmarket – JenningsBet Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo) – Elsie’s Ruan 14/1 0.5pt EW
A couple of weeks ago I was given the privilege to write an article for my local paper, The York Press, previewing the upcoming York Music Weekend race meeting. As part of the article, I noted how the Knavesmire punters love to back a name-specific horse, and for whatever strange, abnormal, subconsciously bizarre reason, they often seem to land. You can imagine my delight when Duran, linked to the Kaiser Chiefs playing in the evening, took the 8:20 race to draw the curtain prior to the Yorkshire based Kaiser Chiefs’ performance. But, you can imagine my absolute shock when I completely failed to mention ELSIE’S RUAN, who shares her first name with my little sister, sparked a huge shock to take the 6:20.
The £22,000gns bellied her odds of 22/1 (coincidence?) to lower the colours of the well backed 11/10F, making smart headway from midfield after somewhat of a troubled passage to storm home and battle on past the Romanised colt who’d already had the benefit of two runs.
You could argue that she’s a mountain to find on form, but if you dig closely, she’s not got all that much. Praetorian, who was always well positioned to the fore, was previously beaten two lengths by Billboard Star at Newmarket who subsequently finished a length second to Whistlejacket in the G2 July Stakes (3rd won the G2 Vintage Stakes since) and matched that form when a length fourth to Black Forza (insert trumpet) in the G2 Richmond Stakes.
Given Praetorian pulled five lengths clear of the third, he would’ve been an excellent winner. But that’s not the only piece of form from that York race to suggest Elsie’s Ruan is no back number in here. The third, Master Of Zest, was previously beaten three lengths on debut, and only two lengths behind Intrusively who was not only half a length behind Vintage Stakes winner Aomori City on debut, but was a place ahead of Billboard Star in the G2 Vintage Stakes when perhaps an unlucky loser.
So in summary, what we essentially have is a completely unknown quantity who’s won with a tad in hand despite greenness in a competitive race at York, won by Shaquille in the past, and has strong multiple pieces of collateral graded form. She will undoubtedly have improved from that race at York, and this stiffer track should suit given she’s a daughter of Ulysses. Lake Victoria and Mountain Breeze are the obvious ones to beat, but I’m confident that Gemma Tutty’s mount has just as much potential as that pair, as winning a valuable maiden at a track like York in that fashion is no mean feat whatsoever, and she can sit off the pace before picking them off in the final proceedings.
3:55 Ascot – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (Class 3) (3yo 0-95) – Old Saxony 20/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
I’ve not much interested in getting stuck into the novelty of the Shergar Cup (though that may be pot calling kettle black if you’ve seen my Racing League column this week), but OLD SAXONY is a horse I’ve had on my radar since his debut in a Newbury maiden that’s worked out seriously well.
The son of Saxon Warrior was cajoled into the race in rear by Jamie Spencer in what could only be described as an educational ride, finishing a seven length seventh. The winner, Voyage, is now (though rather dubiously) rated 90, the second bolted up last month running to an RPR of 91, the third and fourth are rated 85, the fifth is rated 86 (won next time out), the sixth is rated 85 (won next time out), the eighth is rated 80, and the the 9th is rated 86. So immediately on that evidence, Old Saxony could be let in lightly off a mark of 78. That’s further demonstrated by his two length second over 1m3 1/2f at Yarmouth next time out, with the 5/6F defying a penalty to now be rated 91 (beat the 93 rated Harper’s Ferry on debut), and the third is rated 82 (bumped into 95 rated Theory Of Tides next time out). That trio pulled clear of the fourth in good style there, who was previously fourth in a novice dominated by Cadogan Place and Hidden Law.
Old Saxony was well beaten at Chepstow next time out, but the winner bolted up seven lengths and was sent off favourite for the King George V Stakes Handicap at Ascot (albeit beaten eight lengths). Old Saxony was again barely put into the race, but was only five lengths behind the second who was a good winner at Yarmouth on Wednesday and likely an 85 rated colt on that evidence, and the third from that Chepstow contest went up 4lbs to a mark of 80 for winning well on handicap debut at Pontefract last month.
All the aforementioned collateral pieces of form suggest that Old Saxony is well handicapped on this foray into handicaps off a mark of 78, and the step back up to a similar trip to his second at Yarmouth can suit. Record-breaking Japanese rider Nanako Fujita has been given the leg up to make her Shergar Cup debut, who became the first female jockey to compete in a G1 race.
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