The Classic season is upon us in the world of flat racing, and Matty Sutcliffe is seeking the early value with three selections at Newmarket on Saturday.
Published: 5.40pm, Wednesday, 1st May (Odds correct at time of publishing)
1:45 Newmarket – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Wallop 25/1 0.5pt EW 4 places + Rumstar 25/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Horses ridden in rear stood no chance in the season opener at Newmarket, so we can partially upgrade the effort of WALLOP, who wasn’t beaten all that far (six lengths) in a competitive affair won by stablemate Dark Thirty. To his credit, he kept on well enough without threatening and shaped very much like needing the run, so he could easily be a much different proposition in here.
He’s unexposed for his age and was only seen just once as a three year old when taking a novice race at Kempton from 200 days off. Prior to that he had smart form as a two year old, beaten a length by Noble Style on debut who’s rated 16lbs higher this time around and is currently the ante-post favourite. Obviously they’ve both trained on to varying degrees, but the original piece of form is worthy of suggesting Wallop is fairly overpriced in comparison to the Godolphin horse. Wallop then fared well in 5th in the Mill Reef, before beaten 3/4L a length by the 102 rated Bolt Action despite pulling strongly. He’s often shaped as if a strongly run six furlong handicap will suit, and should he have come on from that first run off a 366 day layoff (was certainly condition) then he’s well handicapped off a mark of 92 (originally given a mark of 98) with Rossa Ryan (provisionally) replacing a claimer.
The other I thought was seriously overpriced in here was RUMSTAR for Jonathan Portman and Trevor Whelan, who despite having to carry second top-weight, provides a class angle and could be the proverbial group horse in a handicap.
I’m willing to forgive him for his eleven length defeat at Bath last time out when carrying 9-12 on unfavourable heavy ground won’t have suited at all, and he’ll be much happier back on quicker going with cobwebs blown off and 3lbs shaved off. The son of Havana Grey took the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes here on his final start as a two year old, and returned last season with a 5th in the Listed Carnavon Stakes behind Shaquille, before bridging the gap to two lengths with that 120r rival turned Stallion. He kept on strongly in that race against some seriously classy sorts such as the 124-rated Little Big Bear and subsequent Group 3 Summer Stakes winner Swingalong, and ended the season with a three length seventh in a competitive Bengough Stakes. He’ll likely be overlooked in here due to connections, but he’s unexposed in six furlong handicaps and his dam trained on to be a hardy mare (peak OR and RPR came as a 6yo) so there’s no reason to suggest he can’t improve again this season, with conditions to suit this time and his yard finding form.
3:35 Newmarket – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) – Task Force 20/1 1pt EW 3 places
The fate of the 2000 Guineas arguably lies in just how much City Of Troy has physically improved over the winter, as we’ve not seen a two year old like him for some time. However, we saw with Auguste Rodin last season that there is no such thing as a certainty in racing, and these Justify’s have yet to impress as three year olds, so there is some rationality in the thought of taking him on.
TASK FORCE is a horse I thought the world of last season, and for all the Middle Park hasn’t been the most successful route for a 2000 Guineas winner, everything points to this son of Frankel improving for the step up in trip. His dam was a precocious sort as a two year old, a season which culminated in a G1 Cheveley Park. But she trained on with aplomb to take the 1000 Guineas next season which bodes well Task Force, and you won’t find many horses bred better for the job.
He shaped in three races last season like a step up in trip will suit, as when finishing second to Vandeek in the G1 Middle Park. He raced keenly in rear, but travelled well into contention and was probably a tad outpaced three furlongs out once it lifted, but still clocked the second quickest final three furlong times suggesting he’ll be better suited to a mile.
The obvious issue is the yard form of Ralph Beckett who’re 0-20 in the last two weeks and just 6-51 since January, but they’ve had some go close and yard form isn’t too concerning in the context of a Classic.
We know he goes well fresh, handles the course, and with his visuals matching his pedigree, he looks a shade overpriced at 20s to put it up to City Of Troy.
Added: 1.30pm, Friday, 3rd May (Odds correct at time of publishing)
2:20 Newmarket – William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Bopedro 10/1 1pt EW 5 places
BOPEDRO fared well over a furlong shorter here last month in his group of five on the nearside rail, travelling well off top-weight. The handicapper has relented by a pound which sees him just a pound higher than his last win, but 3lbs lower than his excellent 3rd over C&D in the Cambridgeshire where he might’ve gone a shade closer with a clearer run under Danny Tudhope.
He’s a typical O’meara battled hardened handicapper who requires some luck in running, but the visor returns and he ran well with that aid last May, posting RPR’s of 105 and 103 when 6th and 2nd in competitive York handicaps.
While I do think he can prove the piece to this muddling puzzle, I’ve opted to play each way as his record here reads 1st and a 3rd form two starts, and it’s very had to see him out of the frame with most firms paying five places.
2:40 Thirsk – Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Titan Rock 20/1 0.5pt EW 5 places + Look Back Smiling 12/1 1pt WIN
This race has typically been ran on good/quicker ground in recent years, but when raced on soft it has favoured those drawn low and if the forecast showers dampen conditions further, then I’m keen to be on TITAN ROCK from stall five who will hopefully bounce out and sit behind the front runners just off the rail.
The son of Belardo has been inconsistent on the all-weather this winter but still posted RPR’s of 8 and 91 at Wolves, so I’m not too concerned about his ten length 9th at Newcastle last time out where he took his course record to 0-3. I think he’s far better on a track tighter track with a wide straight, so returning to Thirsk where he was second last season off 85 on his only start here will suit.
While he’s predominantly been kept to better ground throughout his career,, he was second to Revich on soft ground at Ayr over a mile in September off 3lbs higher so I’m not too concerned about the ground particularly given he’s by a Pivotal mare. He’s now on his lowest mark since entering handicaps and his best effort last season came in that Ayr race over a mile, and the return of James Sullivan possibly bodes well given his record on the gelding is a 1st and 2nd, latterly by a head. The introduction of a first time hood bodes well as he can race keenly, and he can outrun his odds for his yard who’s horses have been running consistently well of late.
The other low drawn horse I want to have onside is LOOK BACK SMILING, who will be suited dropping in from stall four and capitalising off a pace collapse on the rail should they get racing too early off the bend. The inform Brandon Wilikie claims a very useful five pounds off and his record on the horse is 2/2, so the booking can only bode well.
By Fast Company out of a Pivotal mare, soft ground is his bread and butter and he fared well from way off the pace in the King Richard Cup at Leicester last time out where the other runners who were held up finished an 8L 7th, 9L 8th, and an 18L 9th, so we can upgrade his finishing position and a reproduction of that effort should see him go close here.
2:55 Newmarket – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Seven Questions 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
It’s slightly concerning that no three-year-old has won this race since Amour Propre in 2009, but in the last ten renewals we’ve only seen four three year olds have a go, with Sergei Profiekev finishing a 2L in 4th 2019, Havana Grey finishing a 1L 5th in 2018, then we’d have to go back two 2014 where the two three year olds finished a 3L 3rd and a 5L 10th. So from the limited recent data we have, it’s not a forlorn hope that the age will be a negative factor.
One of two three-year-olds, Beautiful Diamond tops the market and I’m keen to take her on given Karl Burke’s horses seem to be incredibly over-supported, and for all she had some good form as a two year old, she’s short enough in open company against some seasoned geldings. Mitbaahy didn’t look as if this drop back to 5F was what he needed last time out when a staying on 4th in the Abernant Stakes, and I’ve done my money enough times on his deceiving style of racing. Twilight Calls will likely be well supported with Ryan Moore back on board but Henry Candy hasn’t had a winner in the last 167 days, with his last five runners beaten ranging between 5L-12L, and Twilight Calls has become a tad difficult to get right given he fared well in the King’s Stand, but was well beaten in the G2 Temple Stakes the time before.
With question marks about a few, I’m happy to side with the other three-year-old in SEVEN QUESTIONS, whose allowances see him second best off at the weights. The ’22, ’21, and ’14 winners of this contest were previously out in Meydan over the winter and Seven Questions proved he’s trained on as a three year old and more importantly can mix it with his elders when finishing close ups behind the likes of Emaraaty Ana (110R) and Clarendon House (112R) in a competitive G2 at Meydan. He had a plausible excuse for his last outing there when losing a shoe, but he was going strongly on his first outing when finishing two lengths behind Star Of Mystery who took the G2 next time out and was only beaten 3/4L in the G1 AL Quiz Sprint.
He placed in three group races at the back-end of last season after having won a hattrick of races in the summer, and the addition of cheekpieces will aid the cause of this well put together son of Kodiac dropping back in trip.
4:45 Newmarket – William Hill Bet In-Running Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100) – World Of Darcy 80/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
I was actually at Pontefract when WORLD OF DARCY won on debut last May, beating stablemate Dawn Charger who’s gone on to be a very smart black type filly rated 105. I was surprised to see Burke let go of World Of Darcy, who wasn’t disgraced himself in black type company (3rd in Listed company in Deavuille. John Ryan wasted no time in getting him back winning however, as he won a Nottingham Novice in game fashion last October and was far from disgraced in these cheek-pieces when 5th in the Listed Rockingham Stakes at York, five lengths behind Esquire who was impressively in winning the G3 Greenham Stakes on reappearance last month.
Now there’s several ways you can read into his all-weather runs this season. Perhaps the general consensus would be he hasn’t trained on having been beaten on all four occasions. But, there’s every chance he mightn’t take to the surface, and he wasn’t disgraced off 88 in February beaten three lengths, with the 2nd a progressive stablemate and the 3rd going well since. If we were to take the view that the all-weather just simply isn’t his game, then John Ryan has done some seriously impressive work to get his mark down to 77 for the start of the turf season given be was rated 92 as a two year old and 88 just two months ago. His dam was 1/18 on the AW and trained on with aplomb, so if it is the case then I can’t let him go off unbacked given how promising he initially was.
The booking of Sean Bowen (not that one!) catches the eye as he’s 1-1 when teaming up with John Ryan which came at Brighten on another progeny of Soldiers Call in cheek-pieces last month. While he’s in against some in form types here, you’ll struggle to find any better handicapped horses in the line up and off bottom weight he must have a chance of outrunning these odds if he’s anywhere near the form when last seen on turf.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Value Tips for Saturday, 4th May
1:45 Newmarket – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Wallop 25/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
1:45 Newmarket – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Rumstar 25/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
3:35 Newmarket – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) – Task Force 20/1 1pt EW 3 places
Added on Friday:
2:20 Newmarket – William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Bopedro 10/1 1pt EW 5 places
2:40 Thirsk – Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Titan Rock 20/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
2:40 Thirsk – Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Look Back Smiling 12/1 1pt WIN
2:55 Newmarket – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Seven Questions 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
4:45 Newmarket – William Hill Bet In-Running Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100) – World Of Darcy 80/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
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