Matty Sutcliffe has his eyes on significant value on Thursday at York. He has five best bets, including a horse to take on The Lion In Winter in the Dante Stakes…
2:10 York – Lindum York Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Fine Wine 14/1 1pt EW 5 places + JM Jungle 7/1 1pt WIN
A notoriously tricky puzzle to solve, but the key piece may be the well-handicapped FINE WINE, who could be slowly working back to form after his staying on length third at Musselburgh last time out.
The Dream Ahead gelding won this contest off a mark of 86 in 2022 when making all to win from stall two, and for all this renewal looks a lot more competitive, he’s overpriced should stall seventeen not be a hindrance.
His next outing at York came from a 16lbs higher mark when beaten a length back over C&D into third, and we can potentially discount his previous run here on account of soft ground, and the fact his best form on turf has tended to come early on in the season. His form in the month of May for these connections read 2133, and if he can build on his second run from a 350 day break last time out then he has to be considered for a repeat success from his lowest mark since winning at Southwell in April 2022 for a yard among the winners.
If Fine Wine can’t quite make all here, then this race could easily be set up for JM JUNGLE, whose middle draw in stall nine looks a favourable one given the plethora of early pace on from either flank.
John and Sean Quinn’s charge got the column off to a flyer at the Ebor meeting when landing the 5 1/2F handicap and I was initially skeptical that they may be working back to that contest given he’s still 5lbs higher, but he put in a joint career-best RPR on seasonal return last time out when beaten 3/4L by American Affair, and while the winner did it a shade cosily, a 4lbs swing in the weights might be enough to reverse that form now back at York.
He was admittedly beaten three lengths in this contest off this mark last season, but he was unfavourably pitched on the near-side wing throughout and seemingly got going too late. Below six furlongs his course form reads 23471 and he’s consistently show up well enough off this mark to suggest it isn’t beyond him, with the quick ground suiting to a tee.
2:42 York – Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) – Stanage 16/1 1.5pt EW 4 places
STANAGE tackles a mile for the first time since his neck second in a 20k Windsor Novice last season when trained in the Juddmonte colours by the Gosden’s, where he pulled six lengths clear with the winner in the manner of one certainly staying the distance.
Though the Kingman gelding managed to land a Chelmsford maiden in good style, he was subsequently sold for only 28,000gns to Nick Bradley and David Easterby, and it looks as if their rewards could eventually be reaped with how he’s ran thus far this season.
He was unfancied at 25/1 in the market on seasonal debut at Doncaster, but he took a competitive looking race in good style in the first time hood when coming through strongly to win largely under hands and heels over seven furlongs, clocking the quickest top speed and highest finishing speed percentage in the process.
The data would suggest he’s going to be suited by a big field contest of this nature from a low draw, as he’s a strong travelling sort who’ll find plenty of cover early on and hopefully angle out with one burst of speed and put the race to bed.
It was pleasing to see him back up that performance at Newmarket in a stronger race next time out, and he was a huge eye-catcher there. He didn’t look all that in love with the undulations under a keen hold, and he was short of room repeatedly when looking for a run up the rail and came home strongly again under hands and heels to once more clock the quickest finishing speed percentage.
The drop back to six furlongs at Newmarket was a less obvious move, as he again didn’t show that much love for the track and looked flat to the boards early on under a keen hold in rear, with the near-side of the track certainly an unfavourable one with his group of three finishing well behind the others.
The step back up to a mile on a track like York can suit him well now, and the sign of intent is the return of the hood worn at Doncaster, which replaces the blinkers worn the last twice. He’s a full brother to Calyx and Coppice with the latter a dual winner over a mile including the Sandringham and Listed Rosemary Stakes so the trip isn’t an issue on pedigree, and he’s evidently suited by quick turf.
3:13 York – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Doha 9/2 1pt WIN
There should be more to come from DOHA, a beautifully bred daughter of two time Arc winner Treve, for a yard who won this with Bluestocking last season before going on to land the Arc itself.
Her position in the market in her earlier career likely reflected the strength of her pedigree as opposed to her own innate talent, but the genes came to the fore when gamely landing the Kensington Palace Fillies Handicap at Royal Ascot to lower the colours of the 13/2F Hopeful, with that pair pulling four lengths clear of the third.
She wasn’t disgraced when beaten 3/4L in listed company at Pontefract next time out, and she arguably ran a career best when a four length fifth in the Nassau Stakes, giving 8lbs away to the three year olds in front of her who were rated 15lbs, 16lbs, 11lbs and 17lbs superior respectively.
She was a good second to Tamfana in the G3 Atlanta Stakes when again worse off at the weight (13lbs), before returning to the winners enclosure at Saint Cloud. She’d had a long enough season when well beaten in the Fillies and Mares at Ascot, so we can potentially draw a line through that.
Doha’s showed up well fresh before, and she takers on rivals off level weights here who aren’t all that ahead of her in terms of ability. She proved at Ascot she was fine on quick going, and on a line through form with Tamfana she’d have a length up on See The Fire, plus 6lbs, so there’s further reason to believe she’s overpriced in that respect for a yard among the winners of late.
3:45 York Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo) Mister Rizz 40/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
“Bred for the job and bought for the job” was the phrase to describe MISTER RIZZ by Ed Walker regarding his chances in the Dante, unsurprisingly given his 425,000GNS sales tag. The son of Lope De Vega is the first foal out of the Oppenheimer mare Frankly Darling, who landed the Ribblesdale on her third start before finishing third in the Epsom Oaks, herself from the talented Hidden Hope dam line dating back to the 1997 Coronation Stakes winner Rebecca Sharp.
While it is a big ask for Mister Rizz to step up in to this company just a month and a half after her racecourse debut, he’s been impressive in his two starts. He was entitled to come on for the experience when a 3/4L second on debut to Fifth Column at Kempton last month, pulling a length clear with that one who franked the form next time out when a well backed winner of the Esher Cup.
Mister Rizz was entitled to land a three-runner affair at Doncaster when 2/13F, but he did it in a stylish manner in the form of one who won’t be seen to best effect until in a better contest like this one.
Ed Walker has an excellent record in non handicaps at York over the last five seasons reading 26-7-13 (£25.60+), and this promising, unexposed, well bred colt is worth chancing in a wide open Dante outside the obvious candidate in The Lion In Winter.
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