It’s his local meeting, and Matty Sutcliffe has taken aim at the first day cards at York’s Ebor Festival. He has picked out five value bets to enjoy across the first day’s races.
1:50 York – Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Jordan Electrics 10/1 1pt EW 5 places + Bergerac 14/1 1pt EW 5 places
GG readers of this column have been in clover in the last two renewals of the opening contest of the Ebor Festival with Equilateral and JM Jungle, and we’ve two darts in JORDAN ELECTRICS and BERGERAC this time around to land the hat-trick.
Jordan Electrics may be slightly long in the tooth now, but there was a nine year old winner of this contest in 2017 and he was second to JM Jungle in this contest last season from a pound higher. The winner posted a career best RPR at the time, and has since developed into a high class sprinter when latterly landing the G1 King George Qatar Stakes last time out.
Jordan Electrics also posted a career best RPR of 110 there, but that was his twelfth run of the season having began in April and been a revelation to land seven races, climbing 30lbs in the process, so there was potential that by then he was over the top. He returned this season at York last month when friendless in the betting under a 7lbs claimer and weakened late on to be beaten six lengths, but there was plenty to like about his four length ninth at Goodwood in the Stewards Cup next time out having finished fourth home in his group of fourteen on the far-side, with the first three home suited by their pitch on the near side.
He’s even dropped 2lb for those efforts, but his record third time up after a break reads 3281611 (3-7) and it’s plausible to think that at this stage in his career he’s only going to primed for one contest, which will either be going one better this time around here, or the Ayr Gold Cup.
If connections do have the Ayr Gold Cup as their preference, then the winner may come in the form of Bergerac, who was first home on the near-side in this contest last season in his group of 11 with the first five home drawn low.
Evidently his performance there can be upgraded with the far-side bias lasting essentially the whole meeting, and he was beaten two lengths in both the Portland and the Ayr Silver Cup to back that effort up subsequently. The Kodi Bear gelding remains in good form this season, finishing a length behind the subsequent Stewards Cup winner over C&D at the Dante meeting before a second to Habooba over C&D, finishing half a length in front of Jm Jungle.
Bergerac then landed a valuable class three sprint at Hamilton in June in relatively comfortable fashion with the second and fifth winning next time out, and he was only beaten a length in each of his latest two efforts, latterly in the Scottish Stewards Cup to run to an RPR a pound below his career best.
Now drawn in the middle of the field in nine, he should avoid any overbearing course bias and while he is up another pound, he landed this race off this mark in 2022 and he’s one of a few in here who you can be guaranteed to run their race at York.
2:25 York – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) (IRE-Incentive Race) (Class 1) (2yo) – Gewan 14/1 1pt EW 3 places
The expensive Distant Storm and Superlative runner up Italy head the market here, but with just one winning favourite of this contest in the last ten years, it can pay to chance one further down the market and the promising GEWAN gets the nod.
The son of Night Of Thunder made a striking impression in a competitive looking Newbury novice last month, overcoming greenness to comfortably pull a length clear of Godolphin’s Ruler Of Time and three lengths clear of the third Lost Signal, who won well at Salisbury next time out.
It was disappointing to see the second beat at 4/7F next time out, but the fourth ran a solid race in fourth again in a valuable Goodwood Maiden behind the well touted Isaac Newton. What’s more notable, is that Andrew Balding won that Newbury race with Chaldean in 2022 (who’d already has a run) prior to landing the Acomb with him, which signals the regard Gewan is clearly held in at Kingsclere and given he still looked quite raw on debut, any natural progression can see him serve it up to the market principals.
4:10 York – Sky Bet Stayers Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Wise Eagle 10/1 1pt EW 4 places
The excellent Warren Fentiman shaves a handy 5lbs off WISE EAGLE, who, if returning to the form of his three-length third in the G3 Silver Cup Stakes here over 1m6f last season behind Alkasib and Al Qareem, could have too much class for this field.
While he went a touch sour on the flat subsequently, the yard sparked life back into him over hurdles with form figures of 112 in that sphere and that evidently paid dividends mentally when staying on strongly in the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh back on that flat to be beaten a length by Kihavah, with the third subsequently beaten two lengths in listed company at Goodwood and the seventh landing a Hamilton double on his two subsequent starts.
While the Ebor would’ve been tempting once more for connections, this easier contest appears to logical route to land a good pot with him and the step back up to two miles can bring out further improvement if building on last time out, particularly given he’s unexposed in handicaps over this distance (landing a Ripon handicap on sole starts over 2m+).
4:45 York – IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Over The Blues 16/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Karl Burke won the inaugural running of this race with one returning from a break after racing a Doncaster last time out and he bids to reclaim the contest with OVER THE BLUES, who’s not quite had the rub of the green since joining the yard from Ireland in April.
The Bungle Inthejungle filly placed in listed company for her previous connections last term and was a two length fifth in a valuable Curragh Premier Handicap off a mark of 92 subsequently, proving she’s capable of contesting these big fields.
She then has a luckless passage at Bath on yard debut this season at a track she didn’t look all that in love with, but she put that well behind her when finishing third in a 0-95 handicap at Ascot, beaten two lengths by the subsequent Wokingham winner Get It who’s now rated 11lbs higher with that form also franked by the second winning next time out now rated 6lbs higher.
She then stepped back up into listed company at Haydock though failed to ever get competitive from midfield when beaten five lengths behind the subsequent King Charles 2nd Frost At Dawn. The third and fourth have both franked that form since too, and she fared better down in trip at Doncaster when finishing first in her group of five on the far-side despite finishing a three length seventh.
She was sent off favourite for that contest though had a tricky enough task off top-weight, yet the form has still worked out with the fifth winning since and the second subsequently beat Jm Jungle here now rated 7lbs higher.
She strikes me as the type to improve for this sharper track, and she may fare better now handicapping against her own sex with her earlier form suggesting a mark of 90 is more than workable
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