The 2025 Melbourne Cup takes place in the small hours of Tuesday morning in Britain and Ireland. However, it is wake-up call worthy action, with so much international interest in one of the biggest races on the planet. GG tipster Joe Napier previews the action and gives his verdict.
Favourites
Top-weight and class horse of the race Al Riffa represents two-time Melbourne Cup winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. The five-year-old has developed further this season, primarily for stepping up in trip, landing the Group 2 Curragh Cup and Group 1 Irish St Leger since moving up to 1m6f. Even more improvement could well be forthcoming going up to 2m, but he has not been granted the best draw in stall 19 and is conceding significant weight all round.
Meanwhile the succession of Australian winners now stretches four seasons back and Chris Waller is one of the pre-eminent trainers in the nation at the moment. His Valiant King is one of the “win and you’re in” participants after an easy Group 3 handicap success in early October. His most recent efforts over 1m4f have been impressive and he arrives in better form than last season, when he could only finish 13th.
He was third to Half Yours in the Caulfield Cup most recently, with that winner also turning up here as one of the favourites. He had been fourth in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes before that victory over 1m4f and promises to be one of the more promising stayers of those trying 2m for the first time.
There is another favourite among the visiting nations too in Presage Nocturne. The son of Wootton Bassett represents Alessandro Botti and was fourth in the aforementioned Caulfield Cup having won a Group race over 1m7f in France. He arrives under a plausible handicap and could go well from stall 9 in his bid to be the first French-trained winner since Dunaden in 2011.
British & Irish Runners
Other European contenders include Absurde for Willie Mullins. Ethical Diamond recorded an extraordinary breakthrough success at the Breeders’ up for the same connections as Absurde, who has been seventh and fifth in the last two renewals of this race, but would need to show slightly more to win off a marginally higher mark, with his form not hinting at the requisite improvement.
For Britain, Meydaan has been talked up by Simon & Ed Crisford, albeit his ninth in the Caulfield Cup left something to be desired for this first crack at 2m. Furthur has generally improved the further he has raced for Andrew Balding, but the sole three-year-old does not look favoured at the weights given the usual weight-for-age allowances. Indeed, there has only been one three-year-old winner since 1941.
Onesmoothoperator is the other travelling Brit. Brian Ellison’s seven-year-old has twice won Group races in Australia, landing the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup in his warm up this year. He is carrying 5lb more this year than when only 12th last year though.
Lastly, Joseph O’Brien does not have to solely rely on Al Riffa, as Goodie Two Shoes is another intriguing contestant for his stable. The mare has won three times this year between 1m6f-2m on good ground, with her third in Group 2 company at Glorious Goodwood respectable too. She looks more than capable as a deputy to the favourite with a light weight and Wayne Lordan aboard.
International Runners
Andreas Wöhler won the Melbourne Cup for Germany in 2014 and Henk Grewe’s Flatten The Curve would be among the country’s best hopes since. He has won four of his last five starts, including a successful raid to America, and has proven himself a thorough stayer. He has been well-supported.
Remarkably there has never been an American-trained horse in the Melbourne Cup until this year. Parchment Party is the history-maker for WIlliam Mott, with John Velasquez travelling over for the ride. He has won both starts over 1m6f and could be a rare stamina-laden horse based in the United States, with him having easily beaten Flatten The Curve earlier this year.
Japanese runners are more common, though only Chevalier Rose represents the country in 2025. The son of Deep Impact has broadly disappointed this season, though he has run exclusively in open Group 1s and 2s, having won at the latter level over 2m2f previously. Stall 5 could ensure he outruns his lengthy odds.
Australian Runners
Buckaroo and Vauban are familiar names to British and Irish racing fans, having been favorites for this race in 2024 and 2023 respectively, the latter when trained by Willie Mullins. The former used to be in the care of Joseph O’Brien before joining Chris Waller and is better drawn in stall 12 this year having almost upset Group 1 winning machine Via Sistina last time out. He may be perfectly primed, though Vauban’s chance does not look as strong this year based on a languid Caulfield Cup effort last time out.
Formerly of Ralph Beckett, River Of Stars was second in the Caulfield Cup having been third over 2m in the Sydney Cup earlier this year. Long distance contests suit and she is off a light weight to potentially capitalise.
Royal Supremacy has been consistent for Ciaron Maher since joining from Andrew Balding’s yard and shaped as if stepping up to 2m could suit when fifth in the Caulfield Cup, though he certainly is not bred for it. More will be required from stall 21 anyway, as it will form stall 18 for Torranzino a “win and you’re in” runner who claimed the Geelong Cup on soft ground, which could come into play if the forecast rain is heavy enough.
Arapaho claimed the 2m Sydney Cup in April by three lengths, which makes him very interesting given he has not raced at close to that distance since. He is versatile regarding ground and distance, but may prefer a slog, though he is weighted to the hilt. That cannot be said of Athabascan, whose form had been tailing off until a very credible second to Onesmoothoperator at Moonee Valley last time and who has been second and fifth in the Sydney Cup, as well as a Group 3 winner over 1m5f. He looks a likely surprise package out of stall 1.
Middle Earth was one of the more talented in this field when trained in Britain, but has yet to convince in Australia, while More Felons had made a promising start, though is now 6lb higher in the eights than when 12th in this in 2023.
Smokin’ Romans is drawn well enough to make a fist of this from the front, although the nine-year-old’s time may have passed in this race. Of the pair who foot the betting, Changingoftheguard is of some interest on soft over this trip given his pedigree, though Land Legend is very difficult to fancy despite only being 1lb higher than when eighth a year ago, as he has been last on his previous two starts.
Verdict
No favourite has won this in the last decade, while only two of the last ten winners have gone off at single-figure odds. Those are negatives for Al Riffa, who may be the class horse, but has weight to concede all round and has not been given a good draw. Of those that are well-fancied, Half Yours and Presage Nocturne are worthy of respect, though Buckaroo looks likely to go better than he did last year from stall 12 and can deal with any cut that arrives with the rain. Altogether though, this could set up for another upset and stall 1 may prove a big plus for ATHABASCAN to score at a huge price. The son of Almanzor will carry a light weight, has twice run well in the Sydney Cup over 2m while being further down the weights now, and ran his best race since the spring when second to Onesmoothoperator last time. Goodie Two Shoes is another worth a second look and could even prove the superior of the Joseph O’Brien duo at the weights if stall 20 does not get in the way, with Arapaho and River Of Stars also considered for the shake-up.
- Athabascan
- Buckaroo
- River Of Stars
- Arapaho
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