The 2024 Melbourne Cup will take place at Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday 5th November and it’s set to be a hugely fascinating renewal of the race that stops the nation. Our trends guru Dave Young has turned his attentions Down Under and picks out all the vital statistics and trends needed to try and help you find the winner.
There’s been growing interest this year and last surrounding Vauban who was a beaten favourite last year. I’ll admit, I don’t know that much about Australian horse racing and it’s history but I’ve tried to delve into the winners this century to see if we can establish the type of horse it takes to land this coveted prize.
Key Trends:
Six-year-olds are the winning-most age this century but 3 of the last 7 winners were 4-year-olds. The only eight-year-old winner this century came in 2020 for Joseph O’Brien and we’ve had 2 of 3 seven-year-olds winning this in the last decade too. The sweet spot, accounting for over 80% of the winners this century and 70% in the last decade appears to be 4-6 but you’d also assume a higher rate of runners in this band.
AGE
- 4yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 10/24 (42%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
PRICE
A big field handicap so there won’t be too many short-priced favourites, but even so, they still return a negative ROI if backing those blind. Since 2006, we’ve had one winning favourite at 6/1 and then a couple of seconds, thirds and fourths. Around two thirds of the winners have returned 14/1 or shorter so that’s probably a better line in
- Favourites – 3/24 (30%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 14/1 or shorter – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
DRAW
I’ve still called them stalls but in Australia they are known as barriers but it’s the same difference. It’s interesting that over a longer term that 10-14 appear to go and barrier 11 has the most wins in the race’s history with 8 followed by barrier 5 with 7 then both 14 & 19 have 6. In the last 10 runnings there’s been a spread, however, you can see a definite suggestion that being drawn in the TOP half may have been beneficial, but the draw alone won’t make or break your chances.
- Stalls with more than one win this century – 5,10,13,14,22
- Stalls with a win from the last 10 years – 1,4,10,12,13,16,17,18,19,21
WEIGHT CARRIED
They weights are declared in KG in Australia but you can see their stone and pounds equivalent too. There seems to be a whole range of weights carried to win this, but interestingly, the top 6 and bottom 4 in the weights (by saddle number) account for two thirds of the winners this century and 8 of the last 10.
- Average weight in KG carried – 53.85 This Century & 54.25 The Last Ten
HAS RUN IN THE RACE BEFORE?
This is a curious position, as there will be focus on horses like VAUBAN and ABSURDE coming back from defeat last year. Many horses have tried and 19 of the races this century have seen a returning horse finished in the top 4 and 7 have come back to win. That does mean though that more winners are having their first crack at the race, but we don’t have to just look at the race as win only and it might be prudent to back horses trying again EW over the long term.
- Has run in the race before – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
BREEDING
Both British bred and New Zealand bred horses have claimed five victories this century with Irish bred runners just behind with four. Australias breds have taken three in the last century and French, German and American Breds have taken two each. In the last decade, British, Irish, German and New Zealand breds have all produced two winners each.
SEX
Only 14 mares have won The Melbourne Cup and three belong to Makybe Diva who took this in 2003, 2004 and 2005. There’s been just one winning mare since then which was Verry Elleegant in 2021.
Of the boys, entire’s have 72 historical wins vs Gelding’s 55 wins and in the last century the split is in favour of geldings with 10 to the entire’s 9. In the last decade, we’ve had just two entires and 7 of those 9 geldings. Much like some recency bias in terms of a higher draw, the geldings do seem to be at the fore. a drop in the number of Graded wins and the nature of them, so Graded form alone is worth recognising.
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