The richest two-mile handicap in the world and one the richest turf races, the Melbourne Cup is known as “the race that stops the nation”.
I’ve delved into the winners this century to see if we can establish the type of horse it takes to land this coveted prize.
TOP TRENDS
- Will be aged between 4 and 7 and most likely no older than 6
- No winning favourite since 2013; maybe we’re due one?
- Preference goes to the top half of the draw
- Respect those numbered top 6 or bottom 3
- Probably hasn’t run in this race before
- Most likely to be a gelding
- 3 of the last 5 winners were assisted with a tongue tie
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
6-year-olds are the winning-most age this century but 3 of the last 7 winners were 4-year-olds. The only 8-year-old winner this century came in 2020 for Joseph O’Brien and there have been just three winners of that age in the race’s history, the previous one coming back in 1938!
On balance you’re looking for a horse who is between the ages of 4 and 6 but at a push you could allow 7-year-olds into the mix if they tick enough other boxes.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/24 (30%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 14/1 or bigger – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
The last winning favourite came back in 2013, so for those of you who are glass half full then we’re likely to be due one. Off the back of this, there has been a big climb in the average SP of winners as the last decade is now bookended with a 100/1 and 90/1 winner.
DRAW
- Barriers with more than one win this century – 5,10,13,14,22
- Barriers with a win from the last 10 years – 1,4, 5,12,13,16,17,18,19,21
- Barriers in the TOP half – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
Barriers are the Australian term for stalls but I though the above breakdowns were interesting.
Barriers 10 to 14 have been fruitful this century with 10 winners from 25 running’s but there does seem to be a bit of a swing in favour of higher drawn horses with 5 of the last 10 coming from barrier 16 or higher but they also vary from barrier 1 to 21.
There have been 8 renewals with soft in the going description this century and 7 of the 8 winners were drawn in the top half.
WEIGHT CARRIED
- Average weight in KG carried – 53.85 This Century & 54 The Last Ten
They weights are declared in KG in Australia and there seems to be a whole range of weights carried to win this.
Interestingly, the top 6 and bottom 3 in the weights (by saddle number) account for 15 of the 25 winners this century and 7 of the last 10.
MELBOURNE CUP PREVIOUS AND PREP RACES
- Has run in the race before – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Last ran in the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Geelong Cup – 15/25 (60%) & 4/10 (40%)
Many horses have tried to come back and win this race at the second (or more) time of asking and 20 of the races this century have seen a returning horse finished in the top 4. There have been 7 horses to come back and win.
That does mean though that more winners are having their first crack at the race but 14 winners this century came from either the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Geelong Cup which might be a good pointer rather than looking for or against previous experience in this specific race
BREEDING
Both British-bred and New Zealand-bred horses have claimed 5 victories this century with Irish and Australian-bred runners just behind with 4. French, German and American-breds have taken 2 each. In the last decade, British, Irish, Australian and New Zealand-breds have all produced 2 winners each.
SEX
Only 14 mares have won the Melbourne Cup and three belong to Makybe Diva who took this in 2003, 2004 and 2005. There’s been just one winning mare since then which was Verry Elleegant in 2021.
Of the boys we used to see plenty of stallions taking this race with 9 this century and 7 of those coming in a streak between 2008 and 2014. Since 2017 though the 6 male winners were all geldings which looks like it is a turning trend.
HEADGEAR
- Won sporting headgear other than a tongue-tie – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Won sporting a tongue-tie – 4/25 (16%) & 4/10 (40%)
Not sure how much to read into the use of headgear but 3 of the last 5 winners were assisted by a tongue-tie and one of those also sported cheek-pieces. Prior to this, 6 horses had won with blinkers applied and the last of those in 2015 also sported a tongue-tie.