It is the race that marks the conclusion of the Cheltenham Festival and the continuation of the regular National Hunt year again. The Midlands Grand National is the second longest race of the entire season and Joe Napier looks into who you could spend your Festival winnings on.
Despite being 1lb out the handicap, Major Dundee galloped on the strongest to win for Alan King in 2023.
Key Race Trends
- Eight of the last ten winners have been aged eight or nine
- Only two of the last ten favourites have been victorious. One of those was 13/2 shot Goulanes in 2014
- Only two winners since 2000 have carried 11st or more
- Four of the last ten winners had been ridden by claiming jockeys
- Since David Pipe trained four successive winners between 2011-2014, nine different trainers have won the last nine editions
Key Runners
IRON BRIDGE
(Jonjo O’Neill/Jonjo O’Neill Jr)
A thorough stayer on all evidence, Iron Bridge has placed in both the Welsh National and Haydock’s Grand National Trial on his most recent two starts. Because of the gruelling nature of both races (each was run on heavy), the distances between himself and victory were significant; he was second beaten 34 lengths at Chepstow, though the winner, Nassalam, runs in the Gold Cup.
As a result, he is a combined 2lb lower for those two starts, but he is clearly one who will be thereabouts as long as he recovers from that second race. He was runner-up in the novice handicap on this card last season off 12st in a race which often produces some decent horses. This eight-year-old could well still be one of them.
MR INCREDIBLE
(Willie Mullins/Brian Hayes)
It may seem inconspicuous to see a Willie Mullins horse in this race, but he tested the waters with Captain Kangaroo a year ago. That horse may have pulled up, but there’s every chance that will have incurred the great man’s wrath, as he has sent a much more serious challenger this year in the shape of Mr Incredible.
The eight-year-old was sent off at just 14/1 for the Grand National last season when unseating at the second Canal Turn. He was still in contention at the time, after finishing third in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham just beforehand. Slightly harshly, he is 5lb higher, but he was also second in Warwick’s Classic Chase over 3m5f on heavy last term. He may just have his sights set on bigger things in April, but it would be no surprise if he prepped for this with a solid run.
AUTONOMOUS CLOUD
(Fergal O’Brien/Paddy Brennan)
A winner on this card a year ago, Autonomous Cloud beat Iron Bridge in a close finish for a novices’ handicap chase and stepped forward again this term. Another win at the track in November demonstrated this horse’s liking for soft ground and he was not alone in finding the Welsh National too much of a test behind the Gold Cup entrant winner.
Kept off the track since, he could still be progressive over staying trips, but he probably hasn’t looked the stoutest stayer in the field to date. Benefitting from underfoot conditions may only take him some way through this race and others are preferred.
MY SILVER LINING
(Emma Lavelle/James Best)
Progressive now for over a year, Emma Lavelle’s grey mare has been a model of consistency over 3m and above. Only once in that time has she finished out side of the top two, but that was in a race in which she was making a swift reappearance, just 16 days on from her previous run, and three wins and three seconds have followed.
Despite mostly racing on quicker surfaces, she adapted superbly to soft ground and a more extreme trip when winning from the front in the Classic Chase at Warwick, then chased home Irish challenger Yeah Man in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. A 4lb rise for that game attempt is harsh, but you would be foolish to rule her out on this run.
The Field
Though the defending champion misses out, the winner in 2020, Truckers Lodge, is looking to regain this title at the age of 12. He has won alternate races in his last four runs, including the London National, but is 4lb higher than when well beaten in this a year ago.
Guetapan Collonges was favourite for this a year ago and has a healthy strike rate over fences. However, despite placing the last twice, he is getting little leniency from the handicapper after 11 and 13-length defeats. Ask Me Early turned things around last time, but a 7lb rise dissuades given that could have been a one-off.
Another who could be interesting at a bigger price is Young Dev, who is 5lb higher than his Irish mark, but won well in the fitted cheekpieces on heavy at Navan last month and could well transfer his form.
The Verdict
MY SILVER LINING continues to improve and can be counted on to maintain her consistency. She is 4lb higher for finishing second in the Grand National Trial, but ever-increasing tests of stamina have been suiting. Mr Incredible, Young Dev and Iron Bridge are likely to be thereabouts and are preferred in that order.
- My Silver Lining
- Mr Incredible
- Young Dev
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