A big feature handicap straight after the Cheltenham Festival has 25 fences to be jumped and is a race targeted by plenty.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in compared to the last decade, to see if we can profile the typical winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference for 8 and 9-year-olds (No 10-year-old winner since 1994)
- Be wary of favourites and second favourites
- Likely to have an SP between 17/2 and 20/1
- Probably rated between 135-143 and carrying 10-12 or less
- Probably placed Top 3 last time out but no needed to have won
- Last ran 31 to 90 days ago
- Has no more than 1 run at Uttoxeter and probably hasn’t won here
- Has run over 3m4f or further but unlikely to have won over that far
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 2/24 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
9-year-olds have been profitable to back blind this century showing a near 16% ROI. 8-year-olds show just a 50p loss this century and hold a slightly higher strike rate than both 7 and 9-year-olds at 9% while the other two ages sit at 8%.
In the last decade it’s 4 wins each from 46 runners each for 9 and 9-year-olds but the former are loss makers blind but the latter show £16 profit from those 46 runners. 11-year-olds operate at the best strike rate with 2 wins from 17 and show the best ROI too with a £13 profit for the 17 qualifiers of that age.
There has been no 10-year-old winner since 1994.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Second favourites – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Priced 9/2 to 6/1 – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Priced 14/1 to 20/1 – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
Backing favourites in the last decade is a loss maker, the same is true for backing the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the betting blind with just 2 winners from those 4 bands. 8 winners this century were priced between 17/2 and 20/1.
Although there is a better strike rate for favourites this century they’re still loss makers blind but second favourites do show a profit and over a 50% ROI. They capture some winners in the priced bracket of 9/2 to 6/1 which hasn’t been as prolific in recent years.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 135 and 143 – 11/24 (46%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying 10-12 or less – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
There have been 8 winners in the last decade who were rated between 135 and 143 so that looks to be a turning trend.
Most winners carried 10-12 or less and while last year that wasn’t the case, there has been big breaks between those outside this number so it’s unlikely to happen in quick succession. It’s not profitable to back blind unless you put a lower limit of 10-2 on it where it’ll show a small loss this century but a small profit the last decade.
LAST RUN
- Won last time out – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 3 last time out – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Fell or pulled up last time out – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Last ran 31-90 days ago – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners are loss makers despite finding around a third of the winners across both periods measured. Horses who placed second last time out are profitable to back blind in the last decade as are horses who fell or pulled up last time out. Combined, they have found half of the last 10 winners.
Most winners last ran between 31 and 90 days ago and while it’s a small loss make this century, it’s been profitable to a small amount in the last decade.
MAX DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had already RUN at 3m 4f or further – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had already WON at 3m 4f or further – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had run at Uttoxeter – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
Of the 5 winners who had run at Uttoxeter in the last decade only one of them had won here but they all had just one prior race at this track.
Most winners had already run over 3m4f or further but most of those again had not won over those trips.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing any headgear – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners of this race were not wearing any headgear however this isn’t profitable to follow across either period.